# Thread: Now I am 100% sure that ASM don't deal truly random cards.

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Originally Posted by therefinery
I'd love to play for 7 hours somewhere. You ever think they let you play because you're simply not a winning player?
Tolerance is a wonderful thing. I recall a quick 5 hour hit and run on a double deck game with big spread, possibly 6 hours with meal break.

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BTW, if ASMs aren't, then someone should find out what the algorithm to such a machine! Chu-ching!!

(I can't believe I just said chu-ching!)

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Your feels while playing the game don't mean anything. People find spurious patterns in randomness all the time. Write down some data and prove it with statistics.

E.g., the probability of that a Ten is followed by another Ten should be 95/312 in a 6 deck shoe. If after 10 shoes the average is closer to 150/312, then something's up. Do a binomial probability test.

Couple years ago I suspected a certain online casino was cheating me at blackjack by giving the dealer amazing hit cards. So I recorded every time the dealer busted, and every time the dealer hit with a potential of busting. I did that for like 500 hands at each bet level, before increasing my bet. The ratio came out correct. They weren't cheating that way.

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Originally Posted by scroogemcduck
Your feels while playing the game don't mean anything. People find spurious patterns in randomness all the time. Write down some data and prove it with statistics.

E.g., the probability of that a Ten is followed by another Ten should be 95/312 in a 6 deck shoe. If after 10 shoes the average is closer to 150/312, then something's up. Do a binomial probability test.

Couple years ago I suspected a certain online casino was cheating me at blackjack by giving the dealer amazing hit cards. So I recorded every time the dealer busted, and every time the dealer hit with a potential of busting. I did that for like 500 hands at each bet level, before increasing my bet. The ratio came out correct. They weren't cheating that way.
I second that. BTW, I had a little over a year of statistics in college and I can't believe how often some occurrence can happen that might seem so far out of the "norm" and it's still within some average probability range - or the like.

Here's something I saw on YouTube a couple of weeks or so ago.

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The woman defined a hot hand as never missing. That is not what a hot hand is. So, garbage in garbage out. A hot hand is a markedly increased likelihood of hitting a shot. It doesn't mean you can't miss. This reminds me of a statistician always being able to prove whatever you ask them to statistically. If you ever played sports and were good at it, you know about streaks and being hot. When you are hot at hitting a baseball the ball looks like a softball or beachball coming in. You have no doubt you are going to make good contact with the ball. When you are in a slump, the ball looks like a ping pong ball or BB coming in and you don't believe you will make good contact with the ball. In my opinion being hot is directly related to your expectation of the outcome when it is a physical skill.

Here is a study done where one group practiced for a month. The second group didn't touch a basketball but spent the same amount of time visualizing taking foul shots. The third group did nothing. The first group improved 24% from practicing for a month. The second group improved 23% without touching a basketball but spending the same amount of time visualizing shooting foul shots. The third group did neither and showed no improvement.

So, while there is a muscle memory component to performance, the mental part is just as important to performing better than you had in the past. You see it all the time. People can perform above their norm for a period of time until fatigue sets in. What we see is that fatigue can be mental or physical or both. When the mental edge is lost physically practicing is not necessarily the best way to get it back. Visualization may be the best way to get your confidence back. Everyone's experience in life should tell them that physical success is more about confidence than ability. What I mean by that is physical ability isn't going to change as much as level of confidence.

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