Less than $100,000
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
You can't buy me off. I'm flipping no matter what.
My wife is not an AP, but I asked her what she thought out of curiosity. Surprisingly, she and I came up with the same numbers. I think the years of watching me play have rubbed off on her. (Stop it Freightman - I can hear your mind running sloshing through the gutter searching for a reply.)
I was actually glad to see these replies. Potentially life altering money is an interesting topic. I was going to inquire about different individual personal circumstances versus some mathematical formula.
So, a certainty equivalent versus an either 0 or 1,000,000.
What floats your boat is individual choice depending on personal circumstance. A million is nice, but what it would take to settle.
I have no mortgage or personal debt. I do have some self supporting investment debt. I will dispose of that probably in a couple of years. I have reasonably significant assets, easily converted to cash, as well as a fair amount of cash sitting around. How long will I live, or my wife. What do I want to leave to my kids and charities that I support. All legit issues under the circumstance.
100-200k is to little. It simply wouldn't make a difference.
300-500 k is comfort money which is a nice add on to the pot.
Anything more creates risk VS. A certain windfall of let's say 600k v a million? I don't so. I'll take the low road, 300-500k, no risk.
Someone will give the argument that since there is no downside, take the flip. I'm curios as to their answer when the choice is actually presented.
I'd like to throw a little statistical blackjack theory into the mix.
The toss is fair. The advantage is even with the house. You have no advantage, neither does the house. Though this us a 1 time chance, purists will argue that the long term law of large numbers favours a flip, since there is no downside, other than getting zero.
But this isn't long term - you've wonged into the contest. Your goal is to get in and get out fast. Now, change the examp,e around a bit. You have a 100k bankroll, and have come up with a 10% advantage in a 1 time play. Do you bet 10k. Are you willing to risk 10% of your hard earned roll on a 1 time roll. The purists will again argue to bet the 10k. Not me, not fir a 1 time hit.
You have your max bet out at true 2.8. You have a snapper with dealer showing ace. Do you let it ride because dealer is below index, or do you take even money.
Essentially, the same question modified and asked in different ways. Accordingly, any answer exceeding 500k is against human nature, but then again - personal circumstance.
Last edited by Freightman; 12-15-2017 at 08:23 AM. Reason: I simp,y had to edit 1 time shit to 1 time hit. I have to learn to type.
One scenario that I did not present.Originally Posted by Three
You owe your bookie 1,000,000 dollars, and it is due by noon. It's 10.00 am, and the coin toss us at 11.00 am. If you don't pay by noon, your legs are broken, but you will manage to get a 6 hour tension before the bookies muscle puts a bullet in your head.
That's about the only legit scenario u der which to go for the toss.
"Someone will give the argument that since there is no downside, take the flip. I'm curios as to their answer when the choice is actually presented."
The choice IS actually presented!!! Why is this so confusing to people? I'm asking you to CHOOSE the amount you would take not to flip. That's the amount of money you get to NOT flip the coin. YOU decide. Sheesh.
Don
You don't have to answer $1 million. You can answer anywhere from $600,000 to $900,000 also, but, interestingly, no one has done that. I can guarantee you that, when I asked this of all my Wall Street friends, the answers were very, very different!
Don
Naturally. I think if I asked "How much is 2 + 2?" I would get 55 posts discussing answers other than 4. Sometimes I have to wonder about you guys. You are utterly incapable of simply reading a crystal clear question and answering it. It's rather sad.
Don
Sheesh. I appreciate the constraints of the question, but this is a poll which attempts to provide reality, and though the choice us clear, it is exactly that - a poll. You have a couple of guys that say they will categorically go for the flip.
Put the coin in their hands, show them the million, give them a choice, and I guarantee at least one if them will flip (pun intended)
Give yourself a scratch.
Your Wall Street friends are dealing on volumes, not singularities. Your own phrasing of the question suggests decisions among peons versus managers of huge currency funds.You don't have to answer $1 million. You can answer anywhere from $600,000 to $900,000 also, but, interestingly, no one has done that. I can guarantee you that, when I asked this of all my Wall Street friends, the answers were very, very different!
Don
You need to rephrase your question if you want answers based on the math versus decisions based on emotion.
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