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View Poll Results: Suppose you're offered the flip of a fair coin, with the following provisions: Heads,

Voters
54. You may not vote on this poll
  • Less than $100,000

    4 7.41%
  • $100,000

    6 11.11%
  • $200,000

    8 14.81%
  • $300,000

    11 20.37%
  • $400,000

    9 16.67%
  • $500,000

    11 20.37%
  • $600,000

    1 1.85%
  • $700,000

    0 0%
  • $800,000

    0 0%
  • $900,000

    2 3.70%
  • You can't buy me off. I'm flipping no matter what.

    2 3.70%
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Results 40 to 52 of 95

Thread: A study in certainty equivalent, risk aversion, and utility

  1. #40


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    I'm really surprised so many decided to flip when a $100,000 sure thing was available. I wonder how many stupid people would still flip if the question was a billion dollars and the 100 thousand amounts were 100 million amounts instead.

  2. #41


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Don - I don't know if it's possible, but if a poll can be posted WITHOUT a comment section, that may be best for the next one :-)
    Would surely be my preference! Norm??

    Don

  3. #42


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I'm really surprised so many decided to flip when a $100,000 sure thing was available. I wonder how many stupid people would still flip if the question was a billion dollars and the 100 thousand amounts were 100 million amounts instead.
    That's precisely the point of the next poll that I'm thinking about. You'll see how quickly the results cluster near the beginning. And yet. ...

    Don

  4. #43


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    IMO this is one of the more interesting threads recently (although no string competition...)

    300k, then again I am very risk averse.

  5. #44


    4 out of 4 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I understood but my response you quoted was based on another poster having issue with the language. If I get to decide it would be $999,999.99. LoL
    The choice isn't presented. A hypothetical is presented. What he means by actually presented is getting the actual chance to do the coin flip or take some lesser amount of real money, not a thought experiment. Why is language so hard for you to understand? People are likely to act differently in a hypothetical than they would with the real thing.
    Stupid answer. So what am I supposed to do, offer each person who answers real money? I'm asking what you would do in such a REAL situation, and you're telling me it's impossible to answer because ... the situation isn't actually real???

    For God's sake, if you don't have anything intelligent to say, why don't you consider just shutting up? You aren't under an obligation to have the last word in every thread, after every post. Learn how to be quiet.

    Don

  6. #45


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    Who the hell on Earth would offer 900K in order NOT to flip this COIN? I do not get the mathematical concept of this? Or is this some kind of psychological survey?

  7. #46
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Is there a mathematically correct answer, or is this as subjective as it feels?

    I answered 400k. 1M is a lot of money to me and would change my life a little where as 100k would not. 200k would be nice, but I would still go for that flip. 300k would give me pause. It's a decent chunk and depending on the day could persuade me. 400k would buy me almost all of the time. On the rare days 400k wouldn't buy me, give me the coin. I'd flip it not because there's 1M attached, but because it's shiney and I want to touch it.

  8. #47


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    We'll see what is or isn't confirmed once everyone weighs in. My interest is in the actual responses, which demonstrate that, because of utility, CE, which varies, isn't just e.v., which is the same for everyone.

    Don

    I know this much, I will not be responding to the second question! Don, since your interest is in the actual responses, and most answers are reflective of the utility aspect of the question, which is in my opinion getting too personal, and unnecessary. Frankly I resent even thinking about deciding such a choice "regardless that it is just a poll" whose whole result would affect a charity. Don, what would your choice be under the same scenario?
    Last edited by BoSox; 12-17-2017 at 04:05 AM.

  9. #48


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    Bosox - how can it be too personal? It's an anonymous pool and Don didn't ask for any explanations or tangents. Those were unsolicited from the members who don't know how to ever STFU.

  10. #49
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    Strange lack of answers between $500 000 and $900 000
    I did not answer but if I had been forced to answer, I would have rather answered $900,000.
    Keeping futur possibilities by gambling between $0 and $800 000
    Last edited by Phoebe; 12-17-2017 at 05:21 AM.

  11. #50
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philippe B View Post
    Strange lack of answers between $500 000 and $900 000
    I did not answer but if I had been forced to answer, I would have rather answered $900,000.
    Keeping futur possibilities by gambling between $0 and $800 000
    Since the EV for the play is 500k, Any offer over 500k has a better EV than the play itself and so it should be made. Of course I'd pick anything over that if offered. I thought we were to pick the lowest amount we would accept instead of the coin flip.


    Edit: the ev is not 500k when considering the option not to flip. It is curious how few answered near EV.
    Last edited by Bubbles; 12-26-2017 at 12:36 AM.

  12. #51
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    Normally, individual responses should range from $100 000 to $ 900 000 depending on the minimum amount that changes your life.
    My (no) answer hide that amount about me.

  13. #52


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Bosox - how can it be too personal? It's an anonymous pool and Don didn't ask for any explanations or tangents. Those were unsolicited from the members who don't know how to ever STFU.
    Anonymous or not, the answers for the most part still reflect personal circumstances.

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