Blackjack "Hold" for Las Vegas recent years.

[ZeeBabar]

You are right hold is BS. You will create a session bias with your exit strategy that can harm your results. When you should leave the table is pretty well defined and it has to do with a lack of advantage or heat concerns. Playing through stuff you are better off missing in order to try to leave the table a winner will hurt your overall EV. Don has a chapter on this in his book that helps define when to leave the table.

T3, I admired your post where you seem to say that which count depends upon the individual. Don't you think your exit strategy should also be an individual decision? For me, fatigue is one factor. Another is my psychological well being. Walking away when ahead means a pleasant state of mind, much conducive for my family and friends. Walking away with a small but reasonable loss (under $1k) is acceptable. Bigger losses sffect my mental wellbeing. It also varies with where I am playing. I know my local casinos and can find the same conditions on another day. So heat, advantage or lack of, fatigue, where you are and what you have planned for after the play session can all make a difference.

[Three]

T3, I admired your post where you seem to say that which count depends upon the individual. Don't you think your exit strategy should also be an individual decision? For me, fatigue is one factor. Another is my psychological well being. Walking away when ahead means a pleasant state of mind, much conducive for my family and friends. Walking away with a small but reasonable loss (under $1k) is acceptable. Bigger losses sffect my mental wellbeing. It also varies with where I am playing. I know my local casinos and can find the same conditions on another day. So heat, advantage or lack of, fatigue, where you are and what you have planned for after the play session can all make a difference.

Your exit strategy will affect results if it isn't optimal. How can fatigue come into play? You are at a disadvantage at every shuffle. How long do you have to wait for that if it doesn't happen before the shuffle. I do my best on trips when I play fewer hours. It is because I am not playing stuff that reduces win rate, or as you might say rounds per hour. I know if I am playing something not that good I can't find something good or great. That allows me to play more rounds in a lot less time which causes better trip results when less hours are played.

Anyway if you try hard to post a win several things happen that are not good. First you expose yourself too much making it easier for the casino to peg you as a counter. Second, you end up with more big losses and fewer small losses. the small losses are replaced by minimal wins or large losses. The suit pulls up your file, whether it be under your name or whatever name they chose because you played as a refusal, and sees few losses and lots and lots of wins. It is likely that your overall win has been depleted from playing through bad situations you would have otherwise missed but the suit doesn't bother to add it up. He just sees you as a consistent winner and makes a phone call for further review. Third is you cause skewing from the natural bell curve of results. The left tail becomes fat with higher frequency which really hurts you over time. What you want is the right tail to be more frequent and longer than the left tail for your session results bell curve. This makes your results more consistent as a winner over time. This is what I call affecting the ride to the long run. You will be much more comfortable with more small losses and stronger wins with fewer big losses. Your confidence tends to go up and so does your win rate. The win rate probably because you aren't playing through as much bad stuff.

[stopgambling]

I always thought it doesnt matter when you quit. Your lifetime of playing is just one big session.

you left out variance and your actual amount of time being able to implement a winning strategy. it does matter to some people .

[Freightman]

Your exit strategy will affect results if it isn't optimal. How can fatigue come into play? You are at a disadvantage at every shuffle. How long do you have to wait for that if it doesn't happen before the shuffle. I do my best on trips when I play fewer hours. It is because I am not playing stuff that reduces win rate, or as you might say rounds per hour. I know if I am playing something not that good I can't find something good or great. That allows me to play more rounds in a lot less time which causes better trip results when less hours are played.

Anyway if you try hard to post a win several things happen that are not good. First you expose yourself too much making it easier for the casino to peg you as a counter. Second, you end up with more big losses and fewer small losses. the small losses are replaced by minimal wins or large losses. The suit pulls up your file, whether it be under your name or whatever name they chose because you played as a refusal, and sees few losses and lots and lots of wins. It is likely that your overall win has been depleted from playing through bad situations you would have otherwise missed but the suit doesn't bother to add it up. He just sees you as a consistent winner and makes a phone call for further review. Third is you cause skewing from the natural bell curve of results. The left tail becomes fat with higher frequency which really hurts you over time. What you want is the right tail to be more frequent and longer than the left tail for your session results bell curve. This makes your results more consistent as a winner over time. This is what I call affecting the ride to the long run. You will be much more comfortable with more small losses and stronger wins with fewer big losses. Your confidence tends to go up and so does your win rate. The win rate probably because you aren't playing through as much bad stuff.

Zee likes the concept of left tail and right tail, and your thoughts if the fatter left with the bell curve, I believe, is appealing to him. WHEATHER this means he prays for strength while the wife takes care of guidance is anyone's guess.

As for your thoughtful comments, Zee doesn't really give a shit. His preference for sub optimal ramps along with the eccentricities of his play, though he may have a fat left, are not likely to give him problems in the foreseeable future, though I could be wrong.

So, for future relaxation of the mind, worry not about setting Zee on the path of riches and glory. He is happy where he is, and his preferences should be respected.

[davethebuilder]

In Australia, a casino’s table game hold is the percentage of the amount of money that goes down the drop slot that is retained by the casino per eight hour shift. This figure is variable as it depends on many factors such as casino location, house edge, game speed and bet sizing. For Australia, the average Blackjack hold is 15% – 20% which is somewhat higher than Las Vegas.

The hold is calculated by (casino win *100)/Drop. A high hold indicates player interest and a low hold may mean the game is unprofitable for the casino. The win figure shows how much money the game is making and the Drop figure shows how busy a table is. It is the ratio between these two figures that helps guide casino management in making their decisions because if one or the other gets too high or low then some form of remedial action may be required.

The problem with the hold figure is that there are too many external variables that come into play so it should be used with extreme caution. Some methods casinos use to increase the hold figure is dealing from CSM’s to avoid shuffle downtime, faster dealing, changing the rules to increase the house edge, utilising side bets and changing the table minimum at certain times during the day.

It is important that the hold figure for any game be considered over a long time frame and is based on the actual results of many players. Both the win and the drop figures highlight important information but when put together the resultant figure is less meaningful. This is in contrast to the hold figure used for poker(slot) machines which is a different and more theoretical concept.

[ZeeBabar]

Hold is the biggest BS stat there is. All hold says is how likely your customers are to walk away before they lose all their chips. If your customers buy in for a lot more than they are willing to lose your hold is small. If your customers intend on playing until their entire buy-in is gone your hold is high. Some will walk away fast if they get ahead. Others are never satisfied with their win and will lose it all back no matter how far ahead until they have no chips or money left almost every time. Hold is about what types of decisions your customers make. It varies depending on what mixture plays at your casino. Whenever has one of the biggest holds in the country because their customers are old people that come to lose a set amount of money and then leave. They usually do just that and it is their entire buy-in. There are not many that don't use this as their gambling strategy whether they know it or not.

I play with people that get ahead a ridiculous amount fast. When the count gets good I remind them the only way to be a winner is to have the discipline to walk away while they are ahead. Most can't do that and once they have lost a little bit of their profit back they are not satisfied until they get back to that peak profit. And hour later the guy that bought in for $200 and ran it to $7K is now $2K ahead and wants that $7K profit back. He apparently won't leave until that happens. A half hour later he is down $2K and doesn't want to get back to even. He won't stop until he is $7K ahead. Eventually he depletes his resources to nothing and leaves less whatever he had with him plus all his ATM withdraws. Others never get ahead $7K because if they get up $1K they are gone if they didn't leave with their profit before that. All hold does is indicate what type of clientele you have. The same profit may have a very high hold or a very small hold. Why would you view one as better than the other when your profit is the same. A low hold would indicate customers that are more likely to think returning is a good idea.

Zee likes the concept of left tail and right tail, and your thoughts if the fatter left with the bell curve, I believe, is appealing to him. WHEATHER this means he prays for strength while the wife takes care of guidance is anyone's guess.

As for your thoughtful comments, Zee doesn't really give a shit. His preference for sub optimal ramps along with the eccentricities of his play, though he may have a fat left, are not likely to give him problems in the foreseeable future, though I could be wrong.

So, for future relaxation of the mind, worry not about setting Zee on the path of riches and glory. He is happy where he is, and his preferences should be respected.

You are either too old or too dense to understand that making max money while playing BJ is not the sole goal. It is thus hard to understand that occasional trade off, less money to have a calm, restful evening with family is worth the sacrifice. I am up a few hundred dollars, I decide to leave for home rather than place that max bet on that last hand and risk possibility of going home a loser in a foul mood, yes it's worth it to me and it's not the end of the world.

T3 makes some great points I will consider.

[mofungoo]

Since I am not up to the task of "think(ing) a bit",
I trust that you will leap to the fore and edify me.
One of us is (probably) right and one of us is not.
I am thick-skinned. Please reply.

http://www.urbino.net/v1/pages/ar7_3.htm

The longer one plays the greater the chance that the house advantage will manifest itself. Games that take the money too fast will cause the players to leave before they go broke.

[Freightman]

You are either too old or too dense to understand that making max money while playing BJ is not the sole goal. It is thus hard to understand that occasional trade off, less money to have a calm, restful evening with family is worth the sacrifice. I am up a few hundred dollars, I decide to leave for home rather than place that max bet on that last hand and risk possibility of going home a loser in a foul mood, yes it's worth it to me and it's not the end of the world.

T3 makes some great points I will consider.

Zee
You need to learn how to read. I was defending your position.

[21forme]

You are either too old or too dense

Pot kettle black

[BoSox]

I am up a few hundred dollars, I decide to leave for home rather than place that max bet on that last hand and risk possibility of going home a loser in a foul mood, yes it's worth it to me and it's not the end of the world.

Three wrote:

"I play with people that get ahead a ridiculous amount fast. When the count gets good I remind them the only way to be a winner is to have the discipline to walk away while they are ahead."


Sounds like an agreement to me. Three, I do realize you are trying to get people to leave the table in good counts, as part of your training the ploppies.

[BoSox]

Are you serious? From a casinos perspective, they only care about how much action a customer is willing to give period. Of course they like those compulsive gamblers who are willing to lose their entire 1 k buy in, but trying to compare that example to an idiot "thinking he/she is fooling someone"playing for big comps with large buy ins, and often leaves after loosing say 35% of his/her buy in. That 35% buy in loss may in fact be far, far greater than the 1k loss by the other person.

You do realize you just made my point.

It is like someone saying they have a BR of $10K because that is what he has on hand but will stop playing the game altogether if he loses $5K. The reality is his BR was $5K all the time. The rest is just an illusion. Nobody here would argue with that. Just as in your example the same is true about hold. It is a meaningless illusion. If both had the same buy-in. One actually will lose the buy-in while the other will walk away after losing 65% of the buy-in, never putting any more at risk.

Three, you are wrong. In the example I gave , even though the big buy in player is only willing to risk 35% of his buy in, that 35% money at risk, may well be more money than two dozen other players combined, who are all willing to risk their complete buy ins. That is why you will often see one or two unoccupied $200 and up tables in high limit rooms, just in case the right person walks in, and expects to see immediately, what he/she is looking for.

[Three]

Three, you are wrong. In the example I gave , even though the big buy in player is only willing to risk 35% of his buy in, that 35% money at risk, may well be more money than two dozen other players combined, who are all willing to risk their complete buy ins. That is why you will often see one or two unoccupied $200 and up tables in high limit rooms, just in case the right person walks in, and expects to see immediately, what he/she is looking for.

Sorry, I took it as having both lost the same amount. Not sure if it was the wording or a reading comprehension error. It matters not which it was. I was wrong given what you intended me to get from your post.

[BoSox]

You are either too old or too dense to understand that making max money while playing BJ is not the sole goal. It is thus hard to understand that occasional trade off, less money to have a calm, restful evening with family is worth the sacrifice.

You want a calm, restful evening with the family, then stay home and watch old re-runs of Little House On The Prairie.

I am up a few hundred dollars, I decide to leave for home rather than place that max bet on that last hand and risk possibility of going home a loser in a foul mood, yes it's worth it to me and it's not the end of the world.

A loosing trip, results in you taking it out on your family, is not only disgusting, but is also very amateurish.