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Thread: Blackjack "Hold" for Las Vegas recent years.

  1. #14
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mofungoo View Post
    The hold increases when people stay longer at the tables
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    That makes little sense to me.
    If people stayed the same time at the tables as they did before, the hold would be greater. They are staying a shorter time at the tables causing the hold to be the same. The casinos fail to understand ploppies come with the intention of losing a certain amount of money. That amount will not increase if you take their money faster.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bubbles View Post
    If people stayed the same time at the tables as they did before, the hold would be greater. They are staying a shorter time at the tables causing the hold to be the same. The casinos fail to understand ploppies come with the intention of losing a certain amount of money. That amount will not increase if you take their money faster.
    Not only that, they have to realize that ploppies have to have the expectation, knowing they are going to lose, to get the biggest bang for their buck. Taking their money faster tells ploppies that they are not getting the biggest bang - therefore theiepr entertainment dollar is going elsewhere next time. Thanks

  3. #16
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    Do not confuse "HOLD" with anything but a "revenue stream."

    Regarding "HOLD" ~ How long it takes a ploppy to go broke (or
    for an amateur Card Counter to break even or win or lose a bit)
    has an effect on the "HOLD." If I buy-in for $100 and leave when
    it is gone or when it is doubled, what is the difference if it takes
    me 10 mins or an hour? From the (fiscal) viewpoint of the casino,
    as long as I am in action I have neither won nor lost anything, but
    I am occupying a chair that a loser could use to lose his/her money.

    Ergo, if the rules are worsened, as they have been in recent years,
    then
    the ploppies will lose, not more money, but in less time; and
    that creates a faster turnover of bad players with fresh money to lose.

    I have not examined the Gaming Revenue figures for Las Vegas,
    but in some states casinos try to muddy the facts by just reporting
    results for all table games & mixing Video Poker with Slot Machines.

    The poor rules means that the worsened House Edge will net for the
    House a greater % of money wagered, but that may or may not have
    the desired effect of increasing blackjack table revenue. If no one bets
    serious money, the casino may not realize their pipe dream of worsening
    rules to buttress their "bottom line."

    To state this differently the casino will do better by reducing their "House
    Edge" by 0.xx% when the public's "handle" increases by a larger percentage.

    The paradox is that that has NOT happened in Las Vegas.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 12-10-2017 at 02:30 PM.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Ergo, if the rules are worsened, as they have been in recent years,
    then the ploppies will lose, not more money, but in less time; and
    that creates a faster turnover of bad players with fresh money to lose.
    That assumes they are operating at capacity and there is an endless supply of players to fill empty seats. Neither of those are true.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    That assumes they are operating at capacity and there is an endless supply of players to fill empty seats. Neither of those are true.
    What is also true is that the consumer base they [the casinos] once had are dying off. The next two generations have less capital to spend and so focus more on stretching their buck by purchasing experience rather than chase excitement as Baby Boomer's did in the 50-90's. Now, the younger gen's don't have that much money (costly education, lower wages, higher cost of living.) Vegas needs to rethink this whole "millenials are killing us!" attitude and make their goods/service much more affordable and have such services reflect experience rather than extravagance. But, what do I know?

  6. #19
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    Hold is the biggest BS stat there is. All hold says is how likely your customers are to walk away before they lose all their chips. If your customers buy in for a lot more than they are willing to lose your hold is small. If your customers intend on playing until their entire buy-in is gone your hold is high. Some will walk away fast if they get ahead. Others are never satisfied with their win and will lose it all back no matter how far ahead until they have no chips or money left almost every time. Hold is about what types of decisions your customers make. It varies depending on what mixture plays at your casino. Whenever has one of the biggest holds in the country because their customers are old people that come to lose a set amount of money and then leave. They usually do just that and it is their entire buy-in. There are not many that don't use this as their gambling strategy whether they know it or not.

    I play with people that get ahead a ridiculous amount fast. When the count gets good I remind them the only way to be a winner is to have the discipline to walk away while they are ahead. Most can't do that and once they have lost a little bit of their profit back they are not satisfied until they get back to that peak profit. And hour later the guy that bought in for $200 and ran it to $7K is now $2K ahead and wants that $7K profit back. He apparently won't leave until that happens. A half hour later he is down $2K and doesn't want to get back to even. He won't stop until he is $7K ahead. Eventually he depletes his resources to nothing and leaves less whatever he had with him plus all his ATM withdraws. Others never get ahead $7K because if they get up $1K they are gone if they didn't leave with their profit before that. All hold does is indicate what type of clientele you have. The same profit may have a very high hold or a very small hold. Why would you view one as better than the other when your profit is the same. A low hold would indicate customers that are more likely to think returning is a good idea.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Hold is the biggest BS stat there is. All hold says is how likely your customers are to walk away before they lose all their chips. If your customers buy in for a lot more than they are willing to lose your hold is small. If your customers intend on playing until their entire buy-in is gone your hold is high. Some will walk away fast if they get ahead. Others are never satisfied with their win and will lose it all back no matter how far ahead until they have no chips or money left almost every time. Hold is about what types of decisions your customers make. It varies depending on what mixture plays at your casino. Whenever has one of the biggest holds in the country because their customers are old people that come to lose a set amount of money and then leave. They usually do just that and it is their entire buy-in. There are not many that don't use this as their gambling strategy whether they know it or not.

    I play with people that get ahead a ridiculous amount fast. When the count gets good I remind them the only way to be a winner is to have the discipline to walk away while they are ahead. Most can't do that and once they have lost a little bit of their profit back they are not satisfied until they get back to that peak profit. And hour later the guy that bought in for $200 and ran it to $7K is now $2K ahead and wants that $7K profit back. He apparently won't leave until that happens. A half hour later he is down $2K and doesn't want to get back to even. He won't stop until he is $7K ahead. Eventually he depletes his resources to nothing and leaves less whatever he had with him plus all his ATM withdraws. Others never get ahead $7K because if they get up $1K they are gone if they didn't leave with their profit before that. All hold does is indicate what type of clientele you have. The same profit may have a very high hold or a very small hold. Why would you view one as better than the other when your profit is the same. A low hold would indicate customers that are more likely to think returning is a good idea.
    There is a lot of generalizations in this thread and an assumption that all customers are alike. This is simply not true. Local casinos all over the country depend upon local people who cannot go anywhere else. They have a different strategy. Las Vegas strip casinos may not have a following and that customer who is there for a convention of an annual vacation is unlikely to return so they want all they can get as quickly as they can. The guy who walks out a winner at one casino may lose it elsewhere.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Hold is the biggest BS stat there is. All hold says is how likely your customers are to walk away before they lose all their chips. If your customers buy in for a lot more than they are willing to lose your hold is small. If your customers intend on playing until their entire buy-in is gone your hold is high.

    Are you serious? From a casinos perspective, they only care about how much action a customer is willing to give period. Of course they like those compulsive gamblers who are willing to lose their entire 1 k buy in, but trying to compare that example to an idiot "thinking he/she is fooling someone"playing for big comps with large buy ins, and often leaves after loosing say 35% of his/her buy in. That 35% buy in loss may in fact be far, far greater than the 1k loss by the other person.
    Last edited by BoSox; 12-11-2017 at 06:52 AM.

  9. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Are you serious? From a casinos perspective, they only care about how much action a customer is willing to give period. Of course they like those compulsive gamblers who are willing to lose their entire 1 k buy in, but trying to compare that example to an idiot "thinking he/she is fooling someone"playing for big comps with large buy ins, and often leaves after loosing say 35% of his/her buy in. That 35% buy in loss may in fact be far, far greater than the 1k loss by the other person.
    You do realize you just made my point.

    It is like someone saying they have a BR of $10K because that is what he has on hand but will stop playing the game altogether if he loses $5K. The reality is his BR was $5K all the time. The rest is just an illusion. Nobody here would argue with that. Just as in your example the same is true about hold. It is a meaningless illusion. If both had the same buy-in. One actually will lose the buy-in while the other will walk away after losing 65% of the buy-in, never putting any more at risk.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    You do realize you just made my point.

    It is like someone saying they have a BR of $10K because that is what he has on hand but will stop playing the game altogether if he loses $5K. The reality is his BR was $5K all the time. The rest is just an illusion. Nobody here would argue with that. Just as in your example the same is true about hold. It is a meaningless illusion. If both had the same buy-in. One actually will lose the buy-in while the other will walk away after losing 65% of the buy-in, never putting any more at risk.
    Let's not forget the casinos fundamental goal - to empty your wallet.

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Let's not forget the casinos fundamental goal - to empty your wallet.
    The casino's think hold is the end all but they are , as usual, being idiots.

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Hold is the biggest BS stat there is. All hold says is how likely your customers are to walk away before they lose all their chips. If your customers buy in for a lot more than they are willing to lose your hold is small. If your customers intend on playing until their entire buy-in is gone your hold is high. Some will walk away fast if they get ahead. Others are never satisfied with their win and will lose it all back no matter how far ahead until they have no chips or money left almost every time. Hold is about what types of decisions your customers make. It varies depending on what mixture plays at your casino. Whenever has one of the biggest holds in the country because their customers are old people that come to lose a set amount of money and then leave. They usually do just that and it is their entire buy-in. There are not many that don't use this as their gambling strategy whether they know it or not.

    I play with people that get ahead a ridiculous amount fast. When the count gets good I remind them the only way to be a winner is to have the discipline to walk away while they are ahead. Most can't do that and once they have lost a little bit of their profit back they are not satisfied until they get back to that peak profit. And hour later the guy that bought in for $200 and ran it to $7K is now $2K ahead and wants that $7K profit back. He apparently won't leave until that happens. A half hour later he is down $2K and doesn't want to get back to even. He won't stop until he is $7K ahead. Eventually he depletes his resources to nothing and leaves less whatever he had with him plus all his ATM withdraws. Others never get ahead $7K because if they get up $1K they are gone if they didn't leave with their profit before that. All hold does is indicate what type of clientele you have. The same profit may have a very high hold or a very small hold. Why would you view one as better than the other when your profit is the same. A low hold would indicate customers that are more likely to think returning is a good idea.

    I always thought it doesnt matter when you quit. Your lifetime of playing is just one big session. Your edge doesnt increase or decrease based on stop points. Myself personal I like to quit when im up a decent amount. So my losing sessions i usually play much longer and lose more than my smaller winning sessions.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by shake View Post
    I always thought it doesnt matter when you quit. Your lifetime of playing is just one big session. Your edge doesnt increase or decrease based on stop points. Myself personal I like to quit when im up a decent amount. So my losing sessions i usually play much longer and lose more than my smaller winning sessions.
    You are right hold is BS. You will create a session bias with your exit strategy that can harm your results. When you should leave the table is pretty well defined and it has to do with a lack of advantage or heat concerns. Playing through stuff you are better off missing in order to try to leave the table a winner will hurt your overall EV. Don has a chapter on this in his book that helps define when to leave the table.

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