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Thread: What is "Playing Efficiency"?

  1. #27


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    I think, that to explain perfect insurance with dealer ace up - all it means is that there is confirmation that there is a saturation of faces sufficient to give dealer a blackjack a minimum of 33.3% of the time. The gain is the differential between perfect insurance and a potential shortfall when true count exceeds 3.0 Or 3.4 for hi lo halves respectively.

    In other words, perfect insurance as a concept simply confirms that insurance is not necessarily a good bet, when true is around index, and that there is a surplus of aces, or for that matter, 9's when playing halves. If the count is a monster, it probably doesn't matter much, since, regardless of ace or 9 surplus, insurance is still likely to be a winning proposition.

    There are other side counts, limited only by imagination, that can help with insurance calculation. A couple would be the Tarzan approach, as well as 3 type scenarios where attention is paid to intermediate groupings. The logical extension of a 3ish approach, for example, would be that insurance at 3.0 or 3.4 as mentioned above could be tightened or loosened depending on a deficit or surplus of intermediate cards.

  2. #28
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I agree. But if you run a sim the seperation of Perfect Insurance with Wong Halves will pull it away from side counting. Is it worth it? Probably not. I do it because it falls into my way of counting. A high TC combined with two hands of crap can push the barometer to 50%.

    It's "nice" to know as you shove that insurance bet forward. But two hands of 20 is a "need" to know when if falls below 33% and you hold it back.
    For me insurance is a side bet only, the only effect of my hand composition on an insurance bet is to adjust the count. Two hands of twenty will more likely stop my taking insurance because 4 tens are now not available for dealer hole card, and may push my insurance index below threshold. Low or neutral cards or aces in my hand increase the probability of a dealer hole card ten value.
    Last edited by Joe Mama; 12-06-2017 at 03:48 PM.

  3. #29
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericfarmer View Post
    I'm not sure I understand the question. These *are* numbers generated via simulation (actually a combination of simulation and CA). Can you describe what simulation environment and results you're referring to?
    Win Rate
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  4. #30
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    For me insurance is a side bet only, the only effect of my hand composition on an insurance bet is to adjust the count. Two hands of twenty will more likely stop my taking insurance because 4 tens are now not available for dealer hole card, and may push my insurance index below threshold. Low or neutral cards or aces in my hand increase the probability of a dealer hole card ten value.
    I think that you are mistaken.

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...0-10-Insurance
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 12-06-2017 at 03:58 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  5. #31
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    The very best discussion in print about the interaction of BC, PE, and IC can be found in Bryce Carlson's Blackjack for Blood, Chapter 5, pages 59-67. It is crystal clear, very well written, and perfectly accurate.

    And no, Moses, of the three, insurance is surely the least important consideration, simply because it doesn't occur frequently enough. Dealer has an ace up 1/13 of the time (slightly higher in high positive counts), and TC >= +3 only about 9% of the time. Together, we insure only about 1 hand out of 145, and when the TC is right at +3, the edge is obviously minimal. By +4 or +5, it's greater, but then, clearly, the frequency is even smaller still.

    Don

    P.S. I know your insurance threshold is lower, for SD, but you're the only person on the planet who plays SD, so I'm writing for a wider audience.
    But it seems to me that Hi Opt 2 is beating AO 2 in some cases only thanks to IC ?

    https://www.blackjackinfo.com/commun...mega-ii.20339/
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 12-06-2017 at 04:16 PM.
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  6. #32
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Since my ROR is miniscule, I do not give up EV to lower variance. So like I said, for me, maybe not for you.

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Win Rate
    Can you be more specific? Win rate and PE are two different metrics.

  8. #34
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Since my ROR is miniscule, I do not give up EV to lower variance. So like I said, for me, maybe not for you.
    Why then do you use a composite strategy ?

    p.s. I play 5.000$ one hand, no problem ))
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  9. #35
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    Why then do you use a composite strategy ?

    p.s. I play 5.000$ one hand, no problem ))
    What do you mean by composite strategy?

  10. #36
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericfarmer View Post
    Can you be more specific? Win rate and PE are two different metrics.

    I understand that your figures are correct. They prove that PE has very little effect on win rate.

    "" Finally, we can compute the corresponding playing efficiencies:

    Hi-Lo Illustrious 18 has playing efficiency PE = 0.309.
    Hi-Lo with full indices has PE = 0.470.
    Hi-Opt II with full indices has PE = 0.639."
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 12-06-2017 at 05:45 PM.
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  11. #37
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    What do you mean by composite strategy?
    In this case this your strategy -

    "Two hands of twenty will more likely stop my taking insurance because 4 tens are now not available for dealer hole card, and may push my insurance index below threshold. Low or neutral cards or aces in my hand increase the probability of a dealer hole card ten value."
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

  12. #38
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    In this case this your strategy -

    "Two hands of twenty will more likely stop my taking insurance because 4 tens are now not available for dealer hole card, and may push my insurance index below threshold. Low or neutral cards or aces in my hand increase the probability of a dealer hole card ten value."
    I guess to answer your question of why I use this strategy, because it maximizes EV within the limitations of my insurance index count using all the information my brain can manipulate. It does not minimize variance, because that is not important to me.

  13. #39
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    I guess to answer your question of why I use this strategy, because it maximizes EV within the limitations of my insurance index count using all the information my brain can manipulate. It does not minimize variance, because that is not important to me.
    But it says otherwise - you do not take insurance when your count still signals it.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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