T count simulation

[moses]

No vendetta T3. You are just a perpetual BS artist. That doesn't come just from me. I'm actually a live and let live sort of guy. But for years you continued to go after me a piece at a time along with Mista Blue Ink. I'm not sure why. But now you've got me...all of me. IF you read back in this thread, and others, it's you that looks for snippets to argue with me. I was playing blackjack to pay bills when you were working for a living and probably chasing girls around a college campus. I avoided this thread but was lulled by you and Mr. Lonely...which is probably also you.

[DSchles]

"Hmmm. I would like to understand this better."

You understand it perfectly well.

"I have made pretty clear, both in this forum and in email communication, that my only potentially useful contribution is the evaluation of optimal play (more precisely, CDZ-) for any rule variations... with the critical exception being no resplits. That's one critical difference between Gronbog's recent results and those in my earlier analysis re-linked by Three."

Resplits are worth very little in blackjack. Of all the rules we care about (S17, surrender, or DAS), our least concern is resplits. Gronbog could easily redo his sims with just splitting once. And then we can compare apples to apples. It isn't like either of the other systems are going to be disproportionately penalized because of not allowing resplits. We're trying to compare relatives here. Absolutes aren't important. Apples to apples are important.

"I'm definitely interested in continuing to participate in the analysis... "

You had a funny way of showing it.

"but I'm not sure how I can help if we're going to focus on rules allowing resplits, and I'm open to suggestions. Does someone have a faster/more capable algorithm capable of evaluating resplits that I'm not aware of? If not, then if we want to include "perfect" play upper bounds in performance comparisons of various playing strategies, it is currently only feasible to do so without resplits."

Fine with me.

"On a grumpier note, I'm not sure what is meant by your "volunteering to steer the direction of the research," or my desire to "publish everything I find right away"?"

I think both are perfectly clear.

"To suggest that making results available to this forum "sheds as much heat as light" is, frankly, insulting to the members of this forum,"

You have to be kidding! You obviously don't read on a regular basis. EVERY SINGLE POST in this forum sheds ten times as much heat as light. 90% (all right, to be more accurate, 90.9%! :-)) of all posts in every thread, without exception, are completely irrelevant to the original post. Gronbog, Tarzan, and I agreed to keep all the research carefully controlled until every conceivable aspect of what we were trying to accomplish was scrutinized to the nth degree. And THEN, we would make results available to a forum such as this one. It took months upon months, with hundreds of emails exchanged. But, you didn't want to work that way, which is your prerogative. And Gronbog, Tarzan, and I didn't want to work your way; so the project stalled.

I don't do research on a public forum on the Internet. YMMV. But, why are we rehashing this? We've been down this road already.

"suggesting that the readers here can only be trusted to consume and understand such results once they end up in future editions of your book."

I don't care if they wind up in my book or not. It was an idea I toyed with for a while. Right now, it doesn't matter to me at all.

"(Of course, it's worth noting that you don't actually *need* me; all of my source code is publicly available for anyone, including you, that wants to "steer your own research" however you see fit.)"

And I have told you repeatedly that I'm not a computer person/programmer, and so I'm not going to be the one to utilize the source code. But perhaps Gronbog could be the one, with proper attribution to you, if a final study/article is eventually put together.

"(For those interested in the technical details of the limitation to no resplits: the algorithm in my CA can efficiently compute exact *expected values* for most rule variations, including resplitting pairs. However, to evaluate things like SCORE we need more than just the expected return, we need the complete distribution of probabilities of each possible outcome of a round. I came up with an algorithm to do this efficiently when no resplits are allowed, but the algorithm is prohibitively slow when resplitting is allowed.)"

In short, to get SCOREs, we need variances as well as expectations. As it's a computer thing, I can't help.

Final comment: I'd be delighted to pursue the research along the lines I originally proposed. You have already stated that this is unacceptable to you. I won't speak for Gronbog, but none of us was inclined to splash the ongoing research all over the Internet for the past year, and I doubt that much has changed in that regard. Your preferences along these lines are different from ours, so feel free to go in the direction that you feel is best. But for someone who mires through the muck here on a daily basis, please don't lecture me about how I'm insulting the populace. Everyone here does that admirably, all on his own, in every other post that goes up.

Happy Holidays to you and yours!

Don

[RCJH]

[QUOTE=moses;236455]

What is A LOT? T3 once said blackjack is offered in all 50 states. I found it broken down to actually just 27 states. States east of the Mississippi River only offer 6 and 8 deck shoes. There were 4 tables in Wyoming. 1 casino in Kansas. 2 small cities in Colorado. Ante required in Oklahoma. Indian Casinos up and down the West Coast. Casinos sprinkled throughout the Dakota's and other ass freezing states. I suppose one could drive across Mizzou or live in Meridian,MS which is in between New Orleans and Tunica,MS. New Mexico and Arizona offers some 3 and 4 deck games.

Google research found articles that offer DDFU as a promotion that also comes with high heat in Vegas. My resources said no DDFU on the out skirts with AUFC laugh. So I didn't ask him to check the Strip. El Cortez is a well known sweat shop. That breaks it down a good bit.

Moses, where do you get your info?

BEGIN RANT: You are wrong, but because some pit boss laughed with you, you are convinced you are correct. I play A LOT of DDFU. Many places offer it because they want to offer DD, but due to laws or casino management, it's out of a shoe. I'm not going to tell you where. To be honest, I didn't realize it was a "thing"; it is that common where I play.

[moses]

[QUOTE=RCJH;236465]

Moses, where do you get your info?

BEGIN RANT: You are wrong, but because some pit boss laughed with you, you are convinced you are correct. I play A LOT of DDFU. Many places offer it because they want to offer DD, but due to laws or casino management, it's out of a shoe. I'm not going to tell you where. To be honest, I didn't realize it was a "thing"; it is that common where I play.

Try blackjackhero.com or google states with casinos. But I wanted to know which casinos offered blackjack and the type of games.

It wasn't a pit boss. It was my cousin who has lived in Vegas for at least 20 years. The laughing was because he went to some casinos to look around and ask some dealers. He got some pretty strange looks, just like I did. My Uncle checked out a few just because he doesn't have much else to do these days. I've never seen DD out of a shoe in Northern Nevada. Point is, I'm talking about a state historically known for gambling and especially blackjack. You guys are going to states known for mountains or cheese or wheat.

I drive 10 minutes and walk 3 to get AIS. 30 minutes is too far away. You guys drive across entire states and fly halfway across the country. I didn't see any indication where "ALOT" of DD was offered. Let alone face up. Maybe New Orleans.

You just said you probably play 75-80% DD in pitch in your first post. Which is it? IF it's not a thing, then why the big secret?

[Three]

T3 once said blackjack is offered in all 50 states.

I never said that. I might have said practically every state offers BJ. As I look at things only Alaska, Hawaii, Vermont, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia don't have BJ offered in their states. That leaves 40 states that offer BJ.

States east of the Mississippi River only offer 6 and 8 deck shoes

Way wrong.

Google research found articles that offer DDFU as a promotion that also comes with high heat in Vegas.

You don't need google to research this unless you want to actually play them. The members here are telling you there are many of DD games dealt face up. Don't expect them to tell you where.

[Three]

You just said you probably play 75-80% DD in pitch in your first post. Which is it? IF it's not a thing, then why the big secret?

Clueless about game protection by any AP.

[seriousplayer]

You must be speaking of the posts about T Count because T Count uses information differently to increase PE so of course my posts demonstrated I understood that. They also indicated that because of that T Count gets separation from Hiopt2/ASC performance in pitch games and at very deep penetration like adding an additional 1/2 deck of pen. My comment referred to how I used similar nonlinear techniques to improve my system. I only go non-linear for betting as there are only shoe games available near me with rare and very sweaty exceptions. I use a traditional linear approach for playing. Tarzan goes nonlinear for playing decisions.
There are two reasons why betting gets more important in shoe games compared to pitch games. First, because large spreading is tolerated in shoe games but rarely in pitch games. Second, the number of cards remaining to be played is far more on average in shoe games rather than pitch games. So I have no problem with the concept that betting is much more important than playing in a shoe game using a large spread. But your logic is a bit flawed here. First incorrect betting could also save you 2 units. Second an incorrect play could cost you 6 units. But your logic is off to begin with so that is a red herring. You are looking at things in micro when counting works over repetition of the same situations approaching a situational long run average. It is the averages that are affected by mis-betting and misplaying.

You keep talking about playing when I am talking betting correlation. How can you connect PE to BC?? I can see what you mean when you said my logic is a bit flaw on betting. Well, what I mean is that the long run average for incorrect betting have more impact over misplays. I am referring to playing indices and not misplays from basic strategy. I consider it a misplay when the index is called and you are using basic strategy for you playing decision.

[moses]

Clueless about game protection by any AP.

You think you are informing some newbie as a student for your business for free. There is no free lunch, In reality, you are pissing off pit bosses that read this forum. If you were a hunting dog, I seriously doubt you could find your own food dish.

Everytime you say that you have "fooled" the pit, made $13.5K in 4 casinos in 3 days, trained prized pupils for your magnificent system, or whatever else you do to make yourself sound magnanimous, you've pissed off a pit boss somewhere. I've heard it direct from the horses mouth. Consequently, you make our job more difficult and we pay your price.

I don't know what it is you think you know about nearly every member on this forum or what gives you the right to speak in others behalf. But it suggests you have a direct line to Norm which pisses him off when confronted.

[moses]

I never said that. I might have said practically every state offers BJ. As I look at things only Alaska, Hawaii, Vermont, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia don't have BJ offered in their states. That leaves 40 states that offer BJ.
Way wrong.
You don't need google to research this unless you want to actually play them. The members here are telling you there are many of DD games dealt face up. Don't expect them to tell you where.

You stated this in Even Money thread by Zee. Now, "if" I were to follow this east coast genius advice to hammer the crap out of my locals so I could travel to play, I tried to figure how I would embark on this journey.

Plan 1.) Would start with a 400 mile drive to a small city in the middle of nowhere with 3 casinos. Followed by another 400 miles to Riverton,Wy which has 4 tables. Followed by another 400 miles to Central City, Co which doesn't have much appeal. Then I could drive 660 miles to KC and start a circle.

Plan 2.) Fly to KC, rent a car, and start a circle. It's going to take extensive time to seperate the good from the bad in order to establish a territory.

Plan 3.) Kiss T3's ass so I can obtain streamlined information which will turn out to be utter bullshit.

This might just work if I were Barry Seal. But then, look at how things turned out for him.

Suppose "ALOT" is 6 casinos in and around New Orleans that offer this prized game. I still have to buy a plane ticket, rent motels rooms (at least inititially), rent a car, buy gas, meals etc. But then "ALOT" to one of T3s pupils might mean 2 tables in an M state 400 miles apart.

Way wrong? You just said in an earlier post that DD games have virtually dried up in the east and that you haven't played DD for a decade. Again, contradiction. Do you travel or not? IF not, then how do you know or what is it you think you know?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"If the count calls for a 6 unit bet but I put out 4 units than I would lose 2 units."

No! You do not lose a two (2) units.
All you lose is the (averaged) e.v. on
those units, mindful of the variance of course.

[AndretheGiant]

I have played face up dbl deck in Northern Nevada,as well as Las Vegas and in a few other states also.

[Three]

You stated this in Even Money thread by Zee.

That thread is in the part of my post history where I carpet bombed my post history after Freighter really ticked me off and Norm was saying not to post about my system. I started in September trying to delete every post on my system and figured deleting every post would get it done. Many hundreds of posts deleted and the linked list ran out and the job wasn't done. Most of the posts had nothing to do with my system.

So the only record of my posting in the thread you mention is where I was quoted.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...and-max-bet-BJ

I was quoted in Jack's post #42, Bosox post # 43, Joe Mama's post #43, Bosox post #49, Zeebar post #61, Bosox post #113, Bosox post # 115, Moses post #127, abc4000 post #195, and Bosox post #201. Not one even comes close to mentioning where BJ is offered. So someone that can't ever even accurately get what I post immediately after I post it says something about what I posted 5 months ago FROM MEMORY RATHER THAN REVIEWING POSTS, since the posts no longer exist and haven't for 3 months, expects us to take his recollection as accurate. That is one of the most ridiculous things I have heard no the internet. LoL

I know I didn't post that because I know and have always known it is not true as I could have named 5 states off the top of my head that don't offer BJ and would assume there are many more. Either your vendetta has you making stuff up or You just can't remember anything.

Do you really think this vendetta of yours makes you look good? You make yourself a laughing stock. Why in the world would you even bring something like that up out of the blue unless you have a vendetta? You aren't going to change anyones mind about me. I think the opinions are polarized and people on either side won't be swayed. All you will accomplish is further discrediting yourself, if that is even possible.Of course if anyone wants to know about Reno, SD BJ I would recommend talking to you. Otherwise I would say ignore everything you say because your research is just about Reno SD BJ which is an entirely different game than everywhere else in the country. Your posts in this thread about DD dealt face up and what games are available East of the Mississippi make that clear. Stop making yourself look petty and just chime in on threads that talk about Reno SD BJ and people will treat your posts with respect. Talk about stuff you don't know and have never spent any time researching and you will be constantly called out on it by many posters as you always have been.

[Three]

Suppose "ALOT" is 6 casinos in and around New Orleans that offer this prized game.

Its not in New Orleans. If you ever left Reno you would know where RCJH was talking about from the information he gave in his post. It seems more and more real BJ players are chiming in proving you wrong. The question is why won't you give it up. The answer is obvious, vendetta.