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Thread: T count simulation

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    After about a year and a half of working on it here and there to put all the pieces into place, a simulation is ready to be run covering all levels of the system ranging from basic to expert levels. There will finally be SCORE values to replace all the idle speculations.

    BTW, what do you mean by T Count Simulation ?

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    It is what it is. I have an idea what it works out to and clearly there is a gain, merely a question of how much. Defining specific SCORE values will validate the effectiveness of the system over idle speculations with insufficient data to back it up and help define if the increased complexity of the system is worth bothering with.

    Impressive statement.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    It is what it is. I have an idea what it works out to and clearly there is a gain, merely a question of how much. Defining specific SCORE values will validate the effectiveness of the system over idle speculations with insufficient data to back it up and help define if the increased complexity of the system is worth bothering with.
    It's not worth much, maybe in a pitch game, but not in a shoe game. Just like side counting aces doesn't do much in a shoe game other than those deluded like tthree and flash. This is simply due to the lack of frequency of certain card denominations being in surplus or deficit to make any effect at all on your win rate.

    I figure you will also cause the sims to have some type of confirmation bias and skew the results to not make yourself look completely wrong on the forum, either that, or you will simply flat out lie about your results.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    I figure you will also cause the sims to have some type of confirmation bias and skew the results to not make yourself look completely wrong on the forum, either that, or you will simply flat out lie about your results.
    Unless you know Tarzan personally I would consider this to be a gratuitous statement at best and an attack on his character at worst. In either case, not the place for such BS.

    I assume he will make his results know and available for all to review, critique and evaluate. Perhaps then we should judge the results.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    It's not worth much, maybe in a pitch game, but not in a shoe game. Just like side counting aces doesn't do much in a shoe game other than those deluded like tthree and flash. This is simply due to the lack of frequency of certain card denominations being in surplus or deficit to make any effect at all on your win rate.
    That's why the strongest shoe game counts all side count aces.
    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    I figure you will also cause the sims to have some type of confirmation bias and skew the results to not make yourself look completely wrong on the forum, either that, or you will simply flat out lie about your results.
    Tarzan isn't doing the sims. They will have no bias. People see the world as a reflection of themselves. Now we know you would try to skew any results you post to bolster your position.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    It's not worth much, maybe in a pitch game, but not in a shoe game. Just like side counting aces doesn't do much in a shoe game other than those deluded like tthree and flash. This is simply due to the lack of frequency of certain card denominations being in surplus or deficit to make any effect at all on your win rate.

    I figure you will also cause the sims to have some type of confirmation bias and skew the results to not make yourself look completely wrong on the forum, either that, or you will simply flat out lie about your results.

    Wait, what?

    First of all, he isn't doing the sims. Why would he? He is already convinced of the effectiveness; the sim is so the rest of us can compare apples to apples.

    Second, let's assume you're correct, and the T-count isn't worth much, score-wise. Let's even assume it underperformes HiLo. You're missing a HUGE advantage to it... You, the player, look like a lucky bastard. Your bets don't follow the count. Your playing decisions aren't traditional deviations. Have you ever doubled A3 v 3 in a (traditional) negative count? Tarzan has done just that, and many other seemingly crazy looking plays because the playing efficiency is so different.

    I don't know why you're so angry about this...you don't know Tarzan. I do. On a forum, it's easy to forget that there are real people behind the screen names, and you are disrespecting someone who does not deserve it (for reasons unrelated to AP play). You know nothing, Jon Snow.

  7. #20


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RCJH View Post
    Wait, what?

    First of all, he isn't doing the sims. Why would he? He is already convinced of the effectiveness; the sim is so the rest of us can compare apples to apples.

    Second, let's assume you're correct, and the T-count isn't worth much, score-wise. Let's even assume it underperformes HiLo. You're missing a HUGE advantage to it... You, the player, look like a lucky bastard. Your bets don't follow the count. Your playing decisions aren't traditional deviations. Have you ever doubled A3 v 3 in a (traditional) negative count? Tarzan has done just that, and many other seemingly crazy looking plays because the playing efficiency is so different.

    I don't know why you're so angry about this...you don't know Tarzan. I do. On a forum, it's easy to forget that there are real people behind the screen names, and you are disrespecting someone who does not deserve it (for reasons unrelated to AP play). You know nothing, Jon Snow.
    It sounds good in theory about how your bets and playing deviations don't correlate to a traditional count, but guess what, you super side counters dont understand that 95% of the time, your bets WILL CORRELATE with the traditional counts and you will get pegged anyway. The ways to have longevity and to maximize EV is to limit the size of your wins to not have a tape review after the fact, stay within tolerance levels, play extremely short sessions, or better yet, find a store that'll let you play because the rules and pen are atrocious and make up the EV on the back-end due to playing unlimited hours

  8. #21


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    Ap guru is an idiot Tarzan knows what bins the last five cards of a deck will be in after a few seconds skimming through the deck - he has been the least vocal in touting his system and noone even knows if hes going to publish - you're not a guru if the only two things you are good at is sucking at hi lo and playing with yourself

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ustonzen View Post
    Ap guru is an idiot Tarzan knows what bins the last five cards of a deck will be in after a few seconds skimming through the deck - he has been the least vocal in touting his system and noone even knows if hes going to publish - you're not a guru if the only two things you are good at is sucking at hi lo and playing with yourself
    Oh really? And this will be helpful in a 6-8 deck shoe game where there is on average 75% penetration? Keep in mind if you actually read what I wrote instead of getting emotional over your little biddy tarzan, I never discounted pitch games. A highly dealt pitch game, the tarzan count can flourish, but in a 6-8 deck shoe game, your results at best are going to be what ace side counters get and that's not much. This is due to the lack of frequency in surplus and deficits in card denominations due to the dilution of so many cards in the shoe games.

  10. #23


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    Tarzan and i dont know each other. To think such a high level count would be completely mitigated by 75% penetration is to be willfully obtuse. Plus a lot of variance can happen in those last cards which could cause some very lucrative and exotic plays - random does not mean even distribution.

    All the anti advanced count talk always has this undertone of threatened insecurity - maybe youre not good enough just the way you are - maybe pain and fear and effort are required for growth - maybe you have to make yourself uncomfortable - maybe you should pull yourself up to a higher level rather than try to pull things that are above you down because it makes you feel like youre better without having to do any actual work.
    Challenge yourself - not the validity of things currently beyond your grasp

  11. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    Oh really? And this will be helpful in a 6-8 deck shoe game where there is on average 75% penetration?
    I can't believe you play shoe games with 75% pen. Is this a joke or do you not know ant better.
    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    your results at best are going to be what ace side counters get and that's not much.
    So 20% isn't much? If that is so 100% isn't much either. Why are you even playing?

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ustonzen View Post
    Tarzan and i dont know each other. To think such a high level count would be completely mitigated by 75% penetration is to be willfully obtuse. Plus a lot of variance can happen in those last cards which could cause some very lucrative and exotic plays - random does not mean even distribution.

    All the anti advanced count talk always has this undertone of threatened insecurity - maybe youre not good enough just the way you are - maybe pain and fear and effort are required for growth - maybe you have to make yourself uncomfortable - maybe you should pull yourself up to a higher level rather than try to pull things that are above you down because it makes you feel like youre better without having to do any actual work.
    Challenge yourself - not the validity of things currently beyond your grasp
    I like how you just leave out how many deck you're playing against and just say 75%. 75% in what? Be specific if you're even going to bother to counter what I said. Im specifically talking about 6-8 deck shoe games. You're just another fake player that doesn't put the hours in to understand the game. And to clear up the matter, I dont use hi-lo, I use a level 3 count, but side counting 6-8 deck shoe games or using tarzan counts or gordon counts are plain useless. You will soon find out, unless there's some type of bias in there.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I can't believe you play shoe games with 75% pen. Is this a joke or do you not know ant better.

    So 20% isn't much? If that is so 100% isn't much either. Why are you even playing?
    Oh really, I play 75% shoe games? Go find that quote of when I said that. If you guys can't counter anything I say, but rather put words in my mouth, then god bless me. I use a level 3 count, I already made that extra gain from a higher level count and it performs better than your Hi-Opt II count with aces for the games I play. Tarzan count won't do much after a level 3 on a shoe game just like HiOpt II with aces side counted doesnt do much on the shoe game compared to a level 3 with high BC.

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