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Thread: system basics for money management streaks

  1. #1


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    system basics for money management streaks

    my first post to the forums, my Background comes From system management in the commodities markets

    Money management should be designed around probability for your bank roll success with odds of game.
    Of course the higher your odds the higher your probability of win rate increases in a system.
    Hate hate hate the martingale progression money management but love the anti martingale style management to maximize win series.
    Instead of increasing your risk verse reward by increasing your risk for low profits by chasing the one unit win in martingale, you reverse the system for when you are in a winning series.
    In a 50% win rate game you will have large swings and series of winning/ losing. the foundation of the money management is to maximize your winning series and minimize the damages of a losing streak.  Down side of a streak chasing system is the negative noise at the beginning of system with increased loses on series that don't reach your series objectives.<br><br><br>system is simple and takes advantage of the probability of streaks in the game.It doesn't change your odds of winning a single hand. (thats where card counting comes in)

    never bet more than one unit if you lost.d
    double your bet on wins only,
    revert back to the starting one unit if you lost during your streak.
    doesn't take long to hit table limits on a hot streak and when you do continue betting the limit until you lose....

    lets look at a small streak
    5 dollar min table 250 max
    a streak of 5 wins
    wager 5
    wager 10
    wager 20
    wager 40
    wager 80
    wager 160 after 5 wins... next wager is 320 with a risk of one starting... oops we hit the limit


    I feel better walking away from a losing streak and dance after a winning seriesI have used this system for some explosive wins at bj and craps

    **** probability system******
    on 50% win system the probablility of consecutive losing bets is
    ,-2=75%, -3 =87.5%, -4=93.75%, -5=96.8, -6 = 98.44

    on 55%
    -2= 79.75,-3= 90.89,-4=95.9,-5=98.15 , -6=99.17,-7= 99.63
    assuming you have a average 50/50 system an have two losing bets you have a 85% probability that next bet will be successful.
    your odds will always be 50%
    but probability is derived from different data.
    knowing this basic probability of series occurring its fun to go wager on roulette, craps, baccarat if you can observe a minimum of two losers in series before entering a probability wager. Remember not to go crazy increasing wagers chasing the loss ... increase bet only after win and its best to do so as part of your bankroll management for the long haul.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    I have used this system for some explosive wins at bj and craps
    No doubt. It is the rest of it that is a bunch of voodoo bullshit.

  3. #3
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    Your probabilities are wrong. The probability of winning or losing the next hand does not change depending on whether you won or lost the previous hand(s). You are falling into a common gamblers fallacy.
    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    on 55%
    -2= 79.75,-3= 90.89,-4=95.9,-5=98.15 , -6=99.17,-7= 99.63
    assuming you have a average 50/50 system an have two losing bets you have a 85% probability that next bet will be successful.
    Any effect on results is from betting less frequently, not winning a higher percentage of bets.
    Last edited by Three; 11-23-2017 at 12:49 PM.

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    that is correct your betting is based on the frequency not on winning more. Its a probability bet

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    odds of flipping a coin is 50/50 but the event of it landing heads every time is the probability of it happening

  6. #6


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    no voodoo its a probabilty bet based on a even win/loss system. Odds of a singular bet are still 50/50 this is on a non dependent variable such as a coin flip. Card counting makes variables dependant on cards remaining in deck to be played. It to has a probability of success with odds depending on skill level of your play and counting ability.

    odds can equal probability and probability is based off of the frequency of those odds occuring

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    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    Card counting makes variables dependant on cards remaining in deck to be played.
    But you are never a favorite to win the next hand no matter what the count.
    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    odds of flipping a coin is 50/50 but the event of it landing heads every time is the probability of it happening
    The odds of heads every time depends on the number of trials.

    For n trials:
    Probability of all heads = (1/2)^n
    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    no voodoo its a probabilty bet based on a even win/loss system
    The trouble is nothing in the casino is even win/loss. You loss more than you win in a casino.

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    system manipulation is on the number of trials and the probability of trials completing the series. Odds stay the same the concept is to bet when probabilty is high in your favor with money management system. Its a system as a whole not a single wager outcome. i started a thread where the % of bankroll odds of doubling with risk reward of wager %. its really easy to create system on the 50/50 or even below if you are probability betting instead of straight odd wager. (red/black) (odd/even) (field) always better to use a high odds wager as its safer but a high frequency wager can create opportunities with probability.
    Last edited by smilesforu; 11-23-2017 at 01:53 PM.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    assuming you have a average 50/50 system an have two losing bets you have a 85% probability that next bet will be successful.
    No. The probability is 50%.

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    odds are 50% probability of the sequence is 85

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  12. #12
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    Either you are expressing yourself so poorly that everyone thinks you mean something other than what you are trying to say, or you don't understand the link you posted. The link you posted showed exactly what we have been saying and contradicted what we believe you are trying to say.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    No. The probability is 50%.
    I posted the link since you said the probability was 50 %... its 87% for the sequence. odds are 50% and have not changed

    Probability of sequence =1- (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2)

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