Spread to Two Hands at TC+5: got 11 and 12 against 7

[Freightman]

i concur that . over betting and playing marginal games does way more harm than not knowing the index of 16 vs 7. by being able to spread 1 more unit or allowed to play longer or getting a better pen game will make up for most of these miniscule differences .

But, if you're going to play these marginal games, does it nit make sense to do so with an A game.

[refinery]

i concur that . over betting and playing marginal games does way more harm than not knowing the index of 16 vs 7. by being able to spread 1 more unit or allowed to play longer or getting a better pen game will make up for most of these miniscule differences .

But, if you're going to play these marginal games, does it nit make sense to do so with an A game.

Let's not get wrapped around the axle. He didn't want to hit 12 (then 16) vs 7 while nowhere near the index (whether he knew it or not). That's coming with a C- game and isn't anywhere near an A game.

[Meistro123]

. He didn't want to hit 12

OP never said that.

[Freightman]

Let's not get wrapped around the axle. He didn't want to hit 12 (then 16) vs 7 while nowhere near the index (whether he knew it or not). That's coming with a C- game and isn't anywhere near an A game.

Fair enough comment regarding the OP, but the overall general message to the masses is - don't act on your hunches, act based on the math. If you're going to play marginal games, don't play a C- game, play an A game.

[Planisphere]

why do people automatically assume that I didn't know the index 12 vs 7 - is that how they make themselves look smarter by assuming others are dumb or sth lol. But okay I will refrain myself from acting on my hunches again - it was so tempting. thanks all

[Freightman]

why do people automatically assume that I didn't know the index 12 vs 7 - is that how they make themselves look smarter by assuming others are dumb or sth lol. But okay I will refrain myself from acting on my hunches again - it was so tempting. thanks all

Might be something about you saying you were afraid to hit your 12, fearing you would bust, making the "strategic" decision to pass, then doubling your 11 for the then known bust card for your 12.

You got lucky, nothing more. Your play may also have cost you everything on the table, instead of winning everything on the table. If you continue to play your hunches, you will learn the hard way.

The math is the math - for a reason. The math is there to provide you with long term positive results, not for short term hand grip gratification. No disrespect - you don't seem to want the good advice passed onto you. Answers provided are not intended to extol the virtues of those hunches. I'm absolutely not inferring that you are stupid, however, I'm absolutely inferring that you are to reluctant to make the proper play, regardless how distasteful it may be.

[Ryemo]

why do people automatically assume that I didn't know the index 12 vs 7 - is that how they make themselves look smarter by assuming others are dumb or sth lol. But okay I will refrain myself from acting on my hunches again - it was so tempting. thanks all

If you knew the right play, then why didn’t you execute? This leads me to believe that you don’t have a clear understanding on how EV works, otherwise you wouldn’t have done it. Isn’t that the beauty of AP blackjack anyway? You never have to guess. You know exactly how much to bet and how to play the hand every time. Just calculate the TC and all your decisions are made for you ahead of time. Just execute when the time comes.

[stopgambling]

i only understood the part of 16 vs 7 and that was all .

[refinery]

why do people automatically assume that I didn't know the index 12 vs 7 - is that how they make themselves look smarter by assuming others are dumb or sth lol. But okay I will refrain myself from acting on my hunches again - it was so tempting. thanks all

If you knew the right play, then why didn’t you execute? This leads me to believe that you don’t have a clear understanding on how EV works, otherwise you wouldn’t have done it.

What Ryemo said, and also, I have a hard time believing you generated the indexes yourself using CVData. Norm didn't publish the indexes I provided.

[ZeeBabar]

If you knew the right play, then why didn’t you execute? This leads me to believe that you don’t have a clear understanding on how EV works, otherwise you wouldn’t have done it. Isn’t that the beauty of AP blackjack anyway? You never have to guess. You know exactly how much to bet and how to play the hand every time. Just calculate the TC and all your decisions are made for you ahead of time. Just execute when the time comes.

You can do all of that if you want to get backed off. Fact is that you need to sometimes over bet, sometimes underbet, sometimes stand and sometimes hit for cover purposes. You just need to do it only under certain situations for longevity purposes and accept a reduced but still positive EV. I often play rated and to get the comps, sometimes I might bet $100 at TC+2 and sometimes $75, I might often just stand on 10 vs 16 even at a negative -1 count or not hit a 12 against a 6 at TC-2. I might take even money at TC+1. Its all part of longevity tactics.

[Joe Mama]

You can do all of that if you want to get backed off. Fact is that you need to sometimes over bet, sometimes underbet, sometimes stand and sometimes hit for cover purposes. You just need to do it only under certain situations for longevity purposes and accept a reduced but still positive EV. I often play rated and to get the comps, sometimes I might bet $100 at TC+2 and sometimes $75, I might often just stand on 10 vs 16 even at a negative -1 count or not hit a 12 against a 6 at TC-2. I might take even money at TC+1. Its all part of longevity tactics.

Looks like you have gained confidence in your game which is extremely important.

[21forme]

Sometimes, especially when playing with just I-18 plus a few and you do not know the index, you go with your instinct and it's okay. There are many many times when we don't go with index for cover purpose (eg. Always standing at 16 vs 10 or stAnd on 12 against a 6 in negative count, not splitting 10's, etc.) So let's not make a big deal about this one.

No, it's not OK to go with your instinct. Math trumps instinct every time. The OP got lucky, but repeatedly making errors like this creates a losing player.

[21forme]

why do people automatically assume that I didn't know the index 12 vs 7

I've been playing a long time and I don't know the index for this one. Standing on 12 v 7 at the correct index (assuming there is one) is probably a once in a lifetime event.

And just because you're at TC +5, doesn't mean anything regarding your next card.