EV doesn't exist

[APGuru]

I've now played 1000 hours and am 1 standard deviation down and that's being conservative. 1000 hours? There seems to be a major contradiction among different AP topics. People like to say risk of ruin is just a snapshot and that you must always adjust your bets in a downswing, but at the same time people say as long as you keep playing you will hit your EV. Why isn't EV a snapshot and once you lose you now have to adjust EV? The cards dont remember if you won or lost right? Remember what Grosjean said that 'due' adjusts itself in the denominator? You're never due to make it back, but what happens is you start hitting your EV each trip consistently enough to dilute the sample size. Let's say you had an original EV of 100k and you drop 20k at the start, your new adjusted EV will be 80k. There is a major contradiction going on in the AP community. People defend risk of ruin saying if you dont adjust you could go broke, but when they talk about EV they say you will eventually hit it. Shouldn't both be subject to adjustments?

[Gronbog]

1 standard deviation down

1 standard deviation down from EV or 1 standard deviation below zero?

[APGuru]

1 standard deviation down from EV or 1 standard deviation below zero?

From EV. My EV should roughly be around 65k and I have 38k to show for it. Im absolutely sickened. You know the most sickening part? The first 200 hours I made 20k. The next 800 hours I've made 18k. Want to know the even more sickening part? The first 200 hours I was betting much smaller. Im honestly done

[Gronbog]

1 sd below EV is not uncommon at all. You have approximately a 68% chance of being within 1 standard deviation of EV and approximately a 95% chance of being within 2 standard deviations of EV at any given time.

[Freightman]

From EV. My EV should roughly be around 65k and I have 38k to show for it. Im absolutely sickened. You know the most sickening part? The first 200 hours I made 20k. The next 800 hours I've made 18k. Want to know the even more sickening part? The first 200 hours I was betting much smaller. Im honestly done

Your posting style reminds me of a prior multi handled poster. You should be well aware of the EV roller coaster. Cry me a river.

[APGuru]

Your posting style reminds me of a prior multi handled poster. You should be well aware of the EV roller coaster. Cry me a river.

After 1000 hours? Im 100% sure that everyone who has played 1000 hours was very close to their EV and no way were they 1 SD down. Of course Ill just be that guy who is cursed. Ill be that 1 in 10000 guy.

[Jabberwocky]

After 1000 hours? Im 100% sure that everyone who has played 1000 hours was very close to their EV and no way were they 1 SD down. Of course Ill just be that guy who is cursed. Ill be that 1 in 10000 guy.

We all take turns being on the far left side of the bell curve. Welcome to the wonderful world of blackjack.

[Freightman]

After 1000 hours? Im 100% sure that everyone who has played 1000 hours was very close to their EV and no way were they 1 SD down. Of course Ill just be that guy who is cursed. Ill be that 1 in 10000 guy.

Why don't you stop with those negative ways
https://youtu.be/Xyh-JpWdGmQ

[DSchles]

After 1000 hours? Im 100% sure that everyone who has played 1000 hours was very close to their EV and no way were they 1 SD down. Of course Ill just be that guy who is cursed. Ill be that 1 in 10000 guy.

You have no understanding of the math. If you are truly down 1 s.d., then that is one person in SIX, not one in 10,000!!!

Don

[Gramazeka]

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/en...Avenger-Part-2

[Meistro123]

Crying because you only won $40,000 playing a card game.

#firstworldproblems

[Jabberwocky]

Crying because you only won $40,000 playing a card game.

#firstworldproblems

If he likes whining he should try poker.

[APGuru]

Crying because you only won $40,000 playing a card game.

#firstworldproblems

It's not just a 'card game'. It's work, real work. Once you put in 1000 hours of actual blackjack playing time and more than 500 hours driving and 200 hours of walking and only get 38k when your EV is over 65k and 1SD down after all these hours, then youll see where im coming from. Lots of fake players on these forums that never actually put in the hours. If I was just some avid gambler who can park himself at a table for hours on end gambling away his life, yes it would just be a 'card game', but this is actual work, driving, short sessions, walking, and still underperforming. Go tell your average worker in the corporate world or blue collar job to take a 50% decrease in his pay after 1000 hours of work and tell him it's just a job. Let me know how this goes. 40k might sound great, but considering all the work I put into it, Im disgusted. Also add in the fact the past 800 hours I've made 18k whereas my first 200 hours at lower stakes I made 20k. Maybe it's a coincidence that when I made my 20k to start off, I was working a normal job on the side and probably added to the peace of mind. Ever since I left that job, I basically made 18k. Maybe the stress of not having guaranteed money coming in has affected my play, but I doubt it.

I see so many other counters who 'supposedly' made all this money and here I am grinding out the hours and get the short end of the stick. Maybe if something else in my life ever went well, I could compensate for this struggle, but everything I do it's like I have to work twice as hard as the next guy just to be even. When will this end? What's even the point of living a life like this? Did I mention I went to a 4 year university, graduated and never was able to even get a job? Just sick of it all.