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Thread: Here Is a Scenario - what should I do?

  1. #1


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    Here Is a Scenario - what should I do?

    My goal is to make $200 a day and leave - no matter how many hours it take. Normally there are only three $10 minimum tables so they are all usually full that I have to make $200 with 5 people with me almost whole time.

    After making $200 in 4 hours, I saw one table without a single player. I knew that was an opportunity to play heads-on with the dealer, but I was afraid I might lose and have to stay for more hours. But many people recommend me to play heads-on whenever the opportunity is given. It was very tempting for me, because empty table is a really rare opportunity in that casino.

    Should I have kept playing even after reaching my goal, or did I make the right decision in that I left? In other words, does playing heads-on gives you significantly* more advantage then playing in full table?

    We are not talking only about theories/statistics but also about self-restrain after reaching the goal here.


    Last edited by Planisphere; 11-14-2017 at 12:42 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    My goal is to make $200 a day and leave - no matter how many hours it take. Normally there are only three $10 minimum tables so they are all usually full that I have to make $200 with 5 people with me almost whole time.

    After making $200 in 4 hours, I saw one table without a single player. I knew that was an opportunity to play heads-on with the dealer, but I was afraid I might lose and have to stay for more hours. But many people recommend me to play heads-on whenever the opportunity is given. It was very tempting for me, because empty table is a really rare opportunity in that casino.

    Should I have kept playing even after reaching my goal, or did I make the right decision in that I left? In other words, does playing heads-on gives you significantly* more advantage then playing in full table?
    Of course it does. Since you are theoretically playing with an advantage, and further, since the win rates per 100 rounds are very close to equal, would it not make sense that if you could increase your hands per hour by 3,4,5 or more times - that you will earn proportionately more money.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    My goal is to make $200 a day and leave - no matter how many hours it take. Normally there are only three $10 minimum tables so they are all usually full that I have to make $200 with 5 people with me almost whole time.

    After making $200 in 4 hours, I saw one table without a single player. I knew that was an opportunity to play heads-on with the dealer, but I was afraid I might lose and have to stay for more hours. But many people recommend me to play heads-on whenever the opportunity is given. It was very tempting for me, because empty table is a really rare opportunity in that casino.

    Should I have kept playing even after reaching my goal, or did I make the right decision in that I left? In other words, does playing heads-on gives you significantly* more advantage then playing in full table?
    So, do you leave after playing a deck or less, assuming you got lucky and won $200? You could average $200 a day by winning $1000 on Monday and taking the next 5 days off. Here in the Midwest, there is a middle aged guy that all the casinos know about cause he plays rated. He comes in to win $200, sometimes walks out after just a half deck and sometimes plays all day if he goes down. They do not seem to mind his play. He most malways goes home with $200+

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    My goal is to make $200 a day and leave - no matter how many hours it take. Normally there are only three $10 minimum tables so they are all usually full that I have to make $200 with 5 people with me almost whole time.

    After making $200 in 4 hours, I saw one table without a single player. I knew that was an opportunity to play heads-on with the dealer, but I was afraid I might lose and have to stay for more hours. But many people recommend me to play heads-on whenever the opportunity is given. It was very tempting for me, because empty table is a really rare opportunity in that casino.

    Should I have kept playing even after reaching my goal, or did I make the right decision in that I left? In other words, does playing heads-on gives you significantly* more advantage then playing in full table?
    What are you going to do when you get so far behind at the beginning of your session that you can't make up the loss in a day?

  5. #5


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    Short time results are meaningless. Hours are everything assuming you are playing good games. You could be in the red for over 100 hours.


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  6. #6


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    So was it wise to leave, or should I have kept playing - or there is no answer?

    We are not talking only about theories/statistics but also about self-restrain after reaching the goal here.

  7. #7
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    My goal is to make $200 a day and leave - no matter how many hours it take. Normally there are only three $10 minimum tables so they are all usually full that I have to make $200 with 5 people with me almost whole time.

    After making $200 in 4 hours, I saw one table without a single player. I knew that was an opportunity to play heads-on with the dealer, but I was afraid I might lose and have to stay for more hours. But many people recommend me to play heads-on whenever the opportunity is given. It was very tempting for me, because empty table is a really rare opportunity in that casino.

    Should I have kept playing even after reaching my goal, or did I make the right decision in that I left? In other words, does playing heads-on gives you significantly* more advantage then playing in full table?
    I think a better plan would be to play until you achieve $200 in EV, Wong out at that point if deck is negative, finish deck if positive. Your results may be positive or negative at that point, but over time you will make $200/day.

  8. #8


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    My goal is to make $200 a day and leave - no matter how many hours it take
    That's not a good goal. And your example illustrates exactly why. You are playing under crappy conditions, but then as soon as the conditions are good you are quitting. This is exactly the opposite of what you should be doing.

  9. #9


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    One thing I hear a lot of new players ask is what do they have to do to make $X.xx per session (as if there’s any kind of guarantee). Well you can’t. There are no guarantees, especially in the short term.

    Now if you asked me what you would need to do in order to generate $X.xx in EV every session, then that would be a much simpler task. Shooting for specific goals in EV is more likely than hitting AV goals. You have no control over short term variance.

    I just recently got out of a 300+ hour losing streak. I bottomed out around 185 hours of play (since the losing started) and it took roughly the next 125 ish hours after that to break fully out of it. I am happy to report that not only have I got fully out of my losing streak m, but I have far exceeded it now. I just booked my best trip win to date. 12 days on the road and I won just a little over 110+ max bets. It’s amazing how the swings in this game can be so intense and so extreme in both directions. I’ve experienced both ends of the spectrum this year.

    The moral to the story is this: you have no real control over variance. Just focus on earning +EV and everything else will fall into place over time.

  10. #10


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    Ryemo said
    "just recently got out of a 300+ hour losing streak. I bottomed out around 185 hours of play (since the losing started) and it took roughly the next 125 ish hours after that to break fully out of it. I am happy to report that not only have I got fully out of my losing streak m, but I have far exceeded it now. I just booked my best trip win to date. 12 days on the road and I won just a little over 110+ max bets. It’s amazing how the swings in this game can be so intense and so extreme in both directions. I’ve experienced both ends of the spectrum this year.

    The moral to the story is this: you have no real control over variance. Just focus on earning +EV and everything else will fall into place over time."

    Nice recovery. Almost 10 max bets a day won over 12 days makes for 1 nice nice trip.

    My trips, other than a day trip, last a minimum of 2 days and an absolute max iof 5 days. Those longer trips will have me crashing fir a couple of days. Just don't have the same energy levels that I used to.

    I would be curious as to your hours over day spent playing, and what you do to combat the fatigue factor.

    I make sure that my hotel room is in proximity to various stores, so that I can take that mid day nap, if necessary.

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