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Thread: Lose it all in high count

  1. #14


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    CaAP101, the reason you "seem to lose big" only in big counts is that's when you're going to have your big bets out there. You're not a huge favorite to win the hands at higher true counts, so this is where the majority of your variance is going to come in to effect. Your advantage in the bigger counts comes from getting better hands (so will the dealer), getting more blackjacks (so will the dealer - but you get an extra 50% pay where the dealer does not), the dealer busting SLIGHTLY more often, being able to take insurance while the dealer can't, surrendering while the dealer can't, and your splits and doubles working out better SLIGHTLY more often. You're not some huge favorite at TC +4 to win the hand (win%, not EV). Of course you're going to make the most and lose the most when you have your biggest bets out... Makes sense.
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

  2. #15


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    "the dealer busting SLIGHTLY more often,"

    The dealer busting slightly LESS often. :-)

    Don

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    "the dealer busting SLIGHTLY more often,"

    The dealer busting slightly LESS often. :-)

    Don
    Yep. Let's see how often the dealer busts if there is nothing but 10's and aces left!

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    "the dealer busting SLIGHTLY more often,"

    The dealer busting slightly LESS often. :-)

    Don
    Perhaps I should have noted on their "bustable hands". With the previous "the dealer will get better hands as well" I was hoping that part was implied, but I see the gap I left in my wording =). Apologies for any confusion this may have caused.
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

  5. #18


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    Whether you won or lost the last hand has no bearing on the next one. Your problem is more that you don't bring enough cash to the game or bet too much, and/or that you are not employing the card counting strategy correctly.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Romes View Post
    CaAP101, the reason you "seem to lose big" only in big counts is that's when you're going to have your big bets out there. You're not a huge favorite to win the hands at higher true counts, so this is where the majority of your variance is going to come in to effect. Your advantage in the bigger counts comes from getting better hands (so will the dealer), getting more blackjacks (so will the dealer - but you get an extra 50% pay where the dealer does not), the dealer busting SLIGHTLY more often, being able to take insurance while the dealer can't, surrendering while the dealer can't, and your splits and doubles working out better SLIGHTLY more often. You're not some huge favorite at TC +4 to win the hand (win%, not EV). Of course you're going to make the most and lose the most when you have your biggest bets out... Makes sense.
    It does thanks

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  7. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Question. Over the course of 15k hands, you have an insurance decision on 41 max bets of crappy hands. The dealer had a ten in the hole 18 times. But did not 23 times. Good decision to insure? Or throwing good money after bad?
    That puts you ahead 6.5 max bets for your insurance play.

  8. #21


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    Trick question. Trust the math grasshopper. Follow your insurance indices. How did I do Moses?

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Question. Over the course of 15k hands, you have an insurance decision on 41 max bets of crappy hands. The dealer had a ten in the hole 18 times. But did not 23 times. Good decision to insure? Or throwing good money after bad?
    The interesting part of this question is that most know to insure at true 3.0 + (Hilo), but can't figure out the math behind it. Moses has given a ratio far higher than the 1 in 3 wins necessary to break even on an insurance bet.

    So, for ease, use max bet of $100, think only of 41 hands insured, 18 winning, 23 losing, and the further inference that since all insured hands are crappy, no dealer blackjack still equates to a loss.

    41 hands not insured at $100 equates to loss of $4100.
    41 hands at $100 insured means $6150 at risk. 18 bj's recovers $2700. 23 non bj's los s $4050. Net loss is 1350 vs. $4100. WHEATHER to insure or not is really an easy de ision here.

    The more interesting question would be win percentage at 3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5 etc etc. The answer to that allows one to make other types of decisions.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    That puts you ahead 6.5 max bets for your insurance play.
    Care to explain the math? I get that you win four insurance bets, which is two max bets.

    Don

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Freighter, so I need to back and review the 23 playable hands?
    Moses, your insurance bets have nothing at all to do with your main bets. They are separate. If you win more than one-third of your insurance bets, on average, then it is proper to make the bets. Don't overthink this.

    Don

  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Care to explain the math? I get that you win four insurance bets, which is two max bets.

    Don
    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Question. Over the course of 15k hands, you have an insurance decision on 41 max bets of crappy hands. The dealer had a ten in the hole 18 times. But did not 23 times. Good decision to insure? Or throwing good money after bad?
    So you win 1 max bet 18 times which is a win of 18 max bets, and lose 1/2 max bet 23 times which is a loss of 11.5 max bets. The difference is 6.5 max bets. Am I doing something wrong?

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    If you win more than one-third of your insurance bets, on average, then it is proper to make the bets
    i follow the exact procedures but of course when there are other factors , eg. heat, and blah ,blah ,blah.. To the Op we are trying to maximize profit which means we can not play the best we can all the times.

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