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Thread: Spread to Two Hands at TC+5: got 11 and 12 against 7

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    Spread to Two Hands at TC+5: got 11 and 12 against 7

    TC reached +5, and I spread to two hands (there were two other players at the table). I was sitting at the first seat. Somehow I got 11 and 12 against the dealer's 7 (was surprised didn't get any tens). First, for the hand of 12, I hit and got 4 and made it to 16. According to the strategy (FELT-F), I should've hit 16 against 7. But I was afraid I might bust with a ten (remember, TC was +5), and lose the ten for the next double down for the other hand 11.

    So I stayed 16 against 7, and doubled-down for the other hand 11: I got a ten. Luckily, the dealer's hole card was 8 and busted with an upcoming ten.

    Now. I played a deviation from the strategy out of fear, but I managed to win both hands without busting the first hand of 12. Was this a "good guess" or I just got lucky?

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    I thought I would at least get one ten and maybe get a stiff hand, but I got none so I was surprised. Anyways, yeah no matter how I think I just got lucky...

  3. #3
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    You can modulate your situation with this software and see how much you lost in EV.

    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    You got lucky. I’m not familiar with Hi Lo indices, but I don’t have an index for standing 16v7 with Zen. If the index wasn’t there, then it was a -EV play, despite the fact that it worked out in your favor this time.

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    This is a classic case of poor play being rewarded. You should never play hunches about the next card. There is an index for standing 16 v 7, but it is higher than +5. In hi lo the index is +9. I don't know how indexes convert between hi lo and FELT but usually with level two counts there is some inflation. My understanding is that 16 v 7 does have a stand index but no surrender index, which seems weird to me because all of the other stiff vs dealer high cards have surrender indexes that are lower than the stand index, such as 16 v 8 (surrender at +4 stay at +7) or 15 v 9 (surrender at +2, stay at +8).

    But anyway, staying was a mistake. Either follow basic strategy, or follow an index you know, but don't play hunches or guess what an index might be.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    In general, here they ask about only FELT-F. Not Hi Lo or Zen... Another- i agree with Meistro.
    Last edited by Gramazeka; 11-14-2017 at 04:23 PM.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    Somehow I got 11 and 12 against the dealer's 7 (was surprised didn't get any tens).
    You received non-ten's, yet when it came time to correctly hit your stiffs vs dealer 7, you thought they were all gone? Learn now, very quickly: a high count doesn't mean the small cards are gone. You have to confidently hit these hands. Especially your 12 -- 8 and 9 aren't reckoned in FELT. Hit it and catch the 8 or 9. Be happy. One day you'll hit a count so high you can't believe it, and little cards keep coming out.



    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    There is an index for standing 16 v 7, but it is higher than +5. In hi lo the index is +9. I don't know how indexes convert between hi lo and FELT but usually with level two counts there is some inflation. My understanding is that 16 v 7 does have a stand index but no surrender index
    He was nowhere near the index.

    FELT Indexes

    Hard Hit/Stand
    16v7 = 27

    Surrender
    16v7 = 23

    Hit those stiffs and never look back.

  8. #8


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    We all get those fluke hands both on the plus side and the minus side of the equation. I had fluke situation a few weeks ago. It was my biggest bet at a double deck game - 2x200. True exceeded 7, and I received soft 16 and a soft 15 respectively v dealer 10. I snagged a 5 and 6 respectively. Fluky as hell. Point is do what you're supposed to do when you're supposed to do it. At the end of the day, you'll be further ahead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    At the end of the day, you'll be further ahead.
    More likely at the end of your life you will be farther ahead.

  10. #10


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    Sometimes, especially when playing with just I-18 plus a few and you do not know the index, you go with your instinct and it's okay. There are many many times when we don't go with index for cover purpose (eg. Always standing at 16 vs 10 or stAnd on 12 against a 6 in negative count, not splitting 10's, etc.) So let's not make a big deal about this one.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Sometimes, especially when playing with just I-18 plus a few and you do not know the index, you go with your instinct and it's okay. There are many many times when we don't go with index for cover purpose (eg. Always standing at 16 vs 10 or stAnd on 12 against a 6 in negative count, not splitting 10's, etc.) So let's not make a big deal about this one.
    Playing hunches is a great way to go broke.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    So let's not make a big deal about this one.
    i concur that . over betting and playing marginal games does way more harm than not knowing the index of 16 vs 7. by being able to spread 1 more unit or allowed to play longer or getting a better pen game will make up for most of these miniscule differences .

  13. #13


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    i played a marginal game once but got a 200% advantage . enough EV, period.

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