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  1. #1


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    Odds of this happening?

    New member here, but long time lurker. I play blackjack and like to play poker as well. Have been fairly successful playing blackjack, but the other day I got rocked for 4,000 at a midwest casino in two consecutive shoes. Both times the running count shot up right away within 2 decks and I lost both shoes to the tune of 2k each give or take. So that's about 1 hour. I backcounted both shoes and jumped in at +1 and basically was placing close to max bets most of the shoe. I would say average bet of 2 hands of 150 for most of both of the shoes. What is the SD and z-score for this occurrence? I couldn't believe what I was seeing. My top wager was 2 hands of 200 and my minimum bet at +1 was 2 hands of 50. The pen was about a 1.8 cutoff from an 8 deck shoe and the ruleset was H17, DAS, and surrender.

    Hopefully some of the math guys can chime in. Also what are the odds of 2 shoes going up to TC +5 or higher consecutively?

  2. #2
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Not all that remarkable. My largest losses have all happened at very high counts. Had a similar back to back a few months ago. Doesn't sound like very good game however unless you can spread about 20-1, or 30-1.
    Last edited by Joe Mama; 11-12-2017 at 04:24 PM.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Not all that remarkable. My largest losses have all happened at very high counts. Had a similar back to back a few months ago. Doesn't sound like very good game however unless you can spread about 20-1, or 30-1.
    That's why I backcount the 6-8 deck shoe games. It's basically an infinite spread.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    New member here, but long time lurker. I play blackjack and like to play poker as well. Have been fairly successful playing blackjack, but the other day I got rocked for 4,000 at a midwest casino in two consecutive shoes. Both times the running count shot up right away within 2 decks and I lost both shoes to the tune of 2k each give or take. So that's about 1 hour. I backcounted both shoes and jumped in at +1 and basically was placing close to max bets most of the shoe. I would say average bet of 2 hands of 150 for most of both of the shoes. What is the SD and z-score for this occurrence? I couldn't believe what I was seeing. My top wager was 2 hands of 200 and my minimum bet at +1 was 2 hands of 50. The pen was about a 1.8 cutoff from an 8 deck shoe and the ruleset was H17, DAS, and surrender.

    Hopefully some of the math guys can chime in. Also what are the odds of 2 shoes going up to TC +5 or higher consecutively?
    See BJA3, p. 384, "On very high counts." It's always amusing to read how newcomers are shocked to lose large sums at high counts, when they are making their max bets. Would you expect, instead, to lose large sums at negative counts, betting one unit at a time??

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    See BJA3, p. 384, "On very high counts." It's always amusing to read how newcomers are shocked to lose large sums at high counts, when they are making their max bets. Would you expect, instead, to lose large sums at negative counts, betting one unit at a time??

    Don
    Im not shocked, I've had these losses before, but having it back to back with two monster counts is very rare indeed. Also in fact, i had another shoe the other day before which I dropped another 2k. So basically in the last 3 shoes I played I dropped close to 6k. What are the odds of 3 consecutive -2k shoes? Sickening. Just the odds of getting 3 max bet shoes in a row is rare in itself, is it not? Let alone losing 6k betting 2 hands of 200.

  6. #6


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    As noted by the replies above, this is a fairly common occurrence for an AP that is logging a lot of rounds. Personally, it's happened to me more than my fair share, and I find it to be the most frustrating part of the endeavor. I am not used to it yet, and I've decided that I'm not ready for higher stakes (even though I could easily afford it) until I can walk away from a few of these disasters without giving it a second thought.

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    100% now!

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    happens . i lost many hours flipping coins . it felt like all night , about 6 to 8 hours at around 60 times per hour. it happens , Why would you let it surprise you ? high certainty is the name,bj is the game. There is little certainty in bj in the short term.

  9. #9


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    ZK is that you?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    ZK is that you?
    If you read WoV, you would know ZK is relocated to west coast. Currently in California. Got rocked by LV casinos. Now trying Indian casinos in CA.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    If you read WoV, you would know ZK is relocated to west coast. Currently in California. Got rocked by LV casinos. Now trying Indian casinos in CA.
    Yee, that's how I knew it was ZK.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Yee, that's how I knew it was ZK.
    By the way, ZK posted a suicide note early this morning on WoV. He is thinking of jumping off the bridge after a big loss. It has generated 4 pages of posts in 12 hours. Many on WoV urged people knowing him go to his place and talk him out of it.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    By the way, ZK posted a suicide note early this morning on WoV. He is thinking of jumping off the bridge after a big loss. It has generated 4 pages of posts in 12 hours. Many on WoV urged people knowing him go to his place and talk him out of it.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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