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Thread: Odds of this happening?

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    Odds of this happening?

    New member here, but long time lurker. I play blackjack and like to play poker as well. Have been fairly successful playing blackjack, but the other day I got rocked for 4,000 at a midwest casino in two consecutive shoes. Both times the running count shot up right away within 2 decks and I lost both shoes to the tune of 2k each give or take. So that's about 1 hour. I backcounted both shoes and jumped in at +1 and basically was placing close to max bets most of the shoe. I would say average bet of 2 hands of 150 for most of both of the shoes. What is the SD and z-score for this occurrence? I couldn't believe what I was seeing. My top wager was 2 hands of 200 and my minimum bet at +1 was 2 hands of 50. The pen was about a 1.8 cutoff from an 8 deck shoe and the ruleset was H17, DAS, and surrender.

    Hopefully some of the math guys can chime in. Also what are the odds of 2 shoes going up to TC +5 or higher consecutively?

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Not all that remarkable. My largest losses have all happened at very high counts. Had a similar back to back a few months ago. Doesn't sound like very good game however unless you can spread about 20-1, or 30-1.
    Last edited by Joe Mama; 11-12-2017 at 05:24 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Not all that remarkable. My largest losses have all happened at very high counts. Had a similar back to back a few months ago. Doesn't sound like very good game however unless you can spread about 20-1, or 30-1.
    That's why I backcount the 6-8 deck shoe games. It's basically an infinite spread.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    New member here, but long time lurker. I play blackjack and like to play poker as well. Have been fairly successful playing blackjack, but the other day I got rocked for 4,000 at a midwest casino in two consecutive shoes. Both times the running count shot up right away within 2 decks and I lost both shoes to the tune of 2k each give or take. So that's about 1 hour. I backcounted both shoes and jumped in at +1 and basically was placing close to max bets most of the shoe. I would say average bet of 2 hands of 150 for most of both of the shoes. What is the SD and z-score for this occurrence? I couldn't believe what I was seeing. My top wager was 2 hands of 200 and my minimum bet at +1 was 2 hands of 50. The pen was about a 1.8 cutoff from an 8 deck shoe and the ruleset was H17, DAS, and surrender.

    Hopefully some of the math guys can chime in. Also what are the odds of 2 shoes going up to TC +5 or higher consecutively?
    See BJA3, p. 384, "On very high counts." It's always amusing to read how newcomers are shocked to lose large sums at high counts, when they are making their max bets. Would you expect, instead, to lose large sums at negative counts, betting one unit at a time??

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    See BJA3, p. 384, "On very high counts." It's always amusing to read how newcomers are shocked to lose large sums at high counts, when they are making their max bets. Would you expect, instead, to lose large sums at negative counts, betting one unit at a time??

    Don
    Im not shocked, I've had these losses before, but having it back to back with two monster counts is very rare indeed. Also in fact, i had another shoe the other day before which I dropped another 2k. So basically in the last 3 shoes I played I dropped close to 6k. What are the odds of 3 consecutive -2k shoes? Sickening. Just the odds of getting 3 max bet shoes in a row is rare in itself, is it not? Let alone losing 6k betting 2 hands of 200.

  6. #6


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    As noted by the replies above, this is a fairly common occurrence for an AP that is logging a lot of rounds. Personally, it's happened to me more than my fair share, and I find it to be the most frustrating part of the endeavor. I am not used to it yet, and I've decided that I'm not ready for higher stakes (even though I could easily afford it) until I can walk away from a few of these disasters without giving it a second thought.

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    100% now!

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    happens . i lost many hours flipping coins . it felt like all night , about 6 to 8 hours at around 60 times per hour. it happens , Why would you let it surprise you ? high certainty is the name,bj is the game. There is little certainty in bj in the short term.

  9. #9


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    ZK is that you?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Quote Originally Posted by APGuru View Post
    My top wager was 2 hands of 200 and my minimum bet at +1 was 2 hands of 50. The pen was about a 1.8 cutoff from an 8 deck shoe and the ruleset was H17, DAS, and surrender.
    So you lost 10 rounds of max bets over 2 shoes. I have lost 10 max bets in one round. When you have your max bet out is when you are most vulnerable to big losses.

    At a monster count the deck is loaded with good cards but it takes the RC reducing to indicate you are actually playing advantage rounds. I have been betting and getting my ass kicked because the RC just kept going up until the end of the shoe. I have lost because the deck was extremely rich in T's and A's and that was what I played against every round as the dealer's up-card. That makes things really hards.

    Then I had this one time the first count and second count were both positive but the first was really positive which indicated lots of T's and not as many but a lot of aces, Then the T's started coming out but not the aces. I was winning max bet after max bet from the playing advantage. But eventually the T's got close top normal but then the A's were really really plentiful. Then the A's started coming out. Like 5 decks worth of aces in 2 decks of play. Then both counts were inegative but hadn't lost a hand so I kept betting pretty heavy. The aces kept coming out and I kept winning. At the shuffle the second count indicated that probably every ace in the shoe had been dealt and very few T's were left. I did push the last round with a win and a loss though.

    The point is, the count change for each round indicates what cards you are playing each round. The count indicates what cards you expect you will play in the next round. Most of the time these two things are quite different. Only over the long run does the overall play approach what you execute when you made your bets. Most of the time you watch as advantage round after advantage round causes the count to tank round after round. Only when the cards that come out start to raise the count that you are playing disadvantage rounds.

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