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Thread: E.o.R vs. Ace/Ace Side-Count...

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    E.o.R vs. Ace/Ace Side-Count...

    Hi,

    I was wondering if someone might be able to help me answer a question regarding the E.o.R for the Ace card?

    Lately, iv'e been practicing with a conditional EV program that not only gives you your overall EV(before each wager) but also, the EV for each hand played--Splits, DD, Hit/Stand etc...Anyway, while practicing with this program i've been working and focusing on the accuracy of My betting for "Double Deck" while trying to estimate the dealt/un-dealt of seen/un-seen aces down to the nearest 1/4 deck with about as close to as to precision one can get..But first, i just wanted to say on a side-note that i've been side-counting Aces for well over 10 years and im really good at it(or at least i thought so) until i started calculating the accuracy of My larger bets and comparing them to My Systems TC's to what is MY "actual" overall EV's are before the Hand or Round is dealt..

    Now, Trying to be as Honest to Myself as i am with others here, i was actually disappointed to see that when My System (Ao2/99 bc) called for a TC of lets say +4 which yields Approx. a overall 1.28% "Total Bet Advantage" that when calculated the actual overall programs EV it would sometimes be about 1/2 that or around double that, which of course results in "both" under betting and over betting...Now, before i go any further i would like to point out that im well aware of the fact that this is partially based on the fact on how well Your Systems "Betting Correlation" handles the E.o.R of the cards removed and partially based on of what the exact "Deck Composition" of cards may or may not be.... Now believe it or not, and being sure i have an accurate count(programs keeps count too) i started taking a look at each bet above 1 unit(esp. maxbets) in an attempt to determine why My Tc werent matching to My overall Expected Ev's..And after some time i both realized and confirmed that the in-accuracies of My Tc's (when compared ot your overall Ev)where in-fact, primarily due more to Player Error than any other factor..In all fairness, i have to admit that is partially due to "counting errors of the actual cards" however even if your count is perfect, there can be a very fine line when calculating Tcs and determining the differences between a 2 unit bet or 10 unit bet(TC+2 vs TC+4), while also factoring in the Surplus or Shortage of Aces..It might be easy enough to keep an accurate count but to do this accurately and with precision is a little tougher and difficult than one might think..Which now brings me to E.o.R of the Ace..After determining that i was keeping and accurate count, accurately estimating to the nearest 1/8 deck(heads up play) i started becoming more and more proficient at my deck estimating skills and accurately factoring in the Ace Side-count for Betting Purposes to within a few tenths of a percent when comparing this to My "Toatal Bet Advantage" Aka Overall EV vs My relevant Tcs.. Which brings me to my last question about the E.o.R on the Ace..I noticed that when i Added the Aces (+2 each)to my RC for betting My Overall Conditional Ev was almost always exact to My Preferred TC, however when i subtracted the Aces to My RC (-2 each) for betting i started noticing more and more frequently that i was over betting..The more there was an Ace-deficit the more i would overbet..On a hunch i decided to do a little experiment.

    .In the 2 examples below i removed exactly 1 deck of cards from 2 decks, and then removed the next 4 Aces(All 8 Aces removed) aces and calculated how much this would hurt the player, followed by adding 4 extra Aces(8 total) to the deck to see how much this would help the player..As you can see in the examples below "removing" 4 Aces from hurts the player MORE than 4 Extra Aces helps the player..So is my assumption true? That a deficit of Aces will hurt more than a surplus of Aces will help you?

    (H17/NDAS/NRSA)HE.-.17
    -2.66(-2.49)
    1.83(+2.00)


    (H17/DAS/RSA)HE-.020
    -2.44(-2.42)
    1.95(+1.97)
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

  2. #2
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    That makes sense. The Ace can have a drastically different impact than the Ten, with a varying value dependent upon deck composition.

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    why does all aces be removed, can't you just check to see the effects if there's still 1 to 2 remaining

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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    why does all aces be removed, can't you just check to see the effects if there's still 1 to 2 remaining
    Ya, i guess i could of..Four just seemed more pronounced to me..More less, im just curious if the E.o.R has the same effect on your overall E.V if the same amount of cards Removed, Remain? I just pretty much used the Ace for an example here..Maybe, im just over thinking again, and it means nothing

    However, since the Ace is Worth more when valued at 2.5 with Ao2 than it is at -2+ i was kinda curious, if i could use this to my advantage and Subtract 3 each when theres 1 extra removed/deficit, while adding just +2 with each additional Ace remaining?
    Last edited by Jack Jackson; 10-26-2017 at 10:24 PM.
    http://bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

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    as more aces are remove the negative effect increase i believe

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    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    Ya, i guess i could of..Four just seemed more pronounced to me..More less, im just curious if the E.o.R has the same effect on your overall E.V if the same amount of cards Removed, Remain? I just pretty much used the Ace for an example here..Maybe, im just over thinking again, and it means nothing

    However, since the Ace is Worth more when valued at 2.5 with Ao2 than it is at -2+ i was kinda curious, if i could use this to my advantage and Subtract 3 each when theres 1 extra removed/deficit, while adding just +2 with each additional Ace remaining?
    I had the same thought about weighting the aces differently. I'd be curious to see if you get similar results when aces still remain as opposed to no aces left, or if this is just a special case when no aces remain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    I had the same thought about weighting the aces differently. I'd be curious to see if you get similar results when aces still remain as opposed to no aces left, or if this is just a special case when no aces remain.
    It's not a special case. Just play around with the CA and you will see that, if you remove even a single ace, it hurts more than adding a single ace helps.

    Don

    http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

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    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    It's not a special case. Just play around with the CA and you will see that, if you remove even a single ace, it hurts more than adding a single ace helps.

    Don

    http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi
    Thank you, Don.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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    Man I love the fact I am on the same board as Don S. I love his BJ nuggets he passes on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Jackson View Post
    (H17/NDAS/NRSA)HE.-.17
    -2.66(-2.49)
    1.83(+2.00)


    (H17/DAS/RSA)HE-.020
    -2.44(-2.42)
    1.95(+1.97)
    EoR's are for full deck. As cards are removed the effect of removing 1 card of any rank can change. Also the EoR of the ace is actually about 20% higher than for the T. So tagging the two ranks at the same weight would not mimic actual full deck EoR's.

    If you think about it, what you have found makes perfect sense. If you only have 2 decks to start you have at most 8 aces. When you remove 52 cards you expect about 4 aces to remain. The number will vary of course but average to 4 aces. If there is 4 aces left, once 4 more are removed you have no chance of getting a BJ. So removal leaves a 0-4 ace left situation and adding leaves a 4-12 ace left situation. You get about a BJ about every 21 rounds in an even deck. With one deck left that is 4 aces getting you a BJ every 21 rounds on average. I am not sure if you can make this assumption but we will assume the number of BJ's are proportionally changed by the number of aces for your 1 deck model:
    12 aces/deck: BJ every 7.00 rounds
    11 aces/deck: BJ every 7.64 rounds
    10 aces/deck: BJ every 8.40 rounds
    9 aces/deck: BJ every 9.33 rounds
    8 aces/deck: BJ every 10.50 rounds
    7 aces/deck: BJ every 12.00 rounds
    6 aces/deck: BJ every 14.00 rounds
    5 aces/deck: BJ every 16.80 rounds
    4 aces/deck: BJ every 21.00 rounds
    3 aces/deck: BJ every 28.00 rounds
    2 aces/deck: BJ every 42.00 rounds
    1 aces/deck: BJ every 84.00 rounds
    0 aces/deck: BJ every infinite rounds

    As you can see adding and removing aces in your situation affects the frequency of BJ's quite non-linearly in the 0-4 ace remaining range when removing aces compared to the 4-12 ace remaining range when adding aces.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    if you remove even a single ace, it hurts more than adding a single ace helps.
    Another way of saying removing a second ace will hurt you more than removing the first ace did.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    EoR's are for full deck. As cards are removed the effect of removing 1 card of any rank can change. Also the EoR of the ace is actually about 20% higher than for the T. So tagging the two ranks at the same weight would not mimic actual full deck EoR's.

    If you think about it, what you have found makes perfect sense. If you only have 2 decks to start you have at most 8 aces. When you remove 52 cards you expect about 4 aces to remain. The number will vary of course but average to 4 aces. If there is 4 aces left, once 4 more are removed you have no chance of getting a BJ. So removal leaves a 0-4 ace left situation and adding leaves a 4-12 ace left situation. You get about a BJ about every 21 rounds in an even deck. With one deck left that is 4 aces getting you a BJ every 21 rounds on average. I am not sure if you can make this assumption but we will assume the number of BJ's are proportionally changed by the number of aces for your 1 deck model:
    12 aces/deck: BJ every 7.00 rounds
    11 aces/deck: BJ every 7.64 rounds
    10 aces/deck: BJ every 8.40 rounds
    9 aces/deck: BJ every 9.33 rounds
    8 aces/deck: BJ every 10.50 rounds
    7 aces/deck: BJ every 12.00 rounds
    6 aces/deck: BJ every 14.00 rounds
    5 aces/deck: BJ every 16.80 rounds
    4 aces/deck: BJ every 21.00 rounds
    3 aces/deck: BJ every 28.00 rounds
    2 aces/deck: BJ every 42.00 rounds
    1 aces/deck: BJ every 84.00 rounds
    0 aces/deck: BJ every infinite rounds

    As you can see adding and removing aces in your situation affects the frequency of BJ's quite non-linearly in the 0-4 ace remaining range when removing aces compared to the 4-12 ace remaining range when adding aces.
    Thanks for commenting T3,

    I Guess, is fair to say that the Ace will also give you an Advantage other than just getting a Blackjack, for betting purposes right? Soft Hands, Doubles and even Splitting perhaps? Nevertheless its more obvious to me now, why an Ace Secondary count would be more accurate..One thing i would like to point out however, is 1 extra dealt Ace doesnt seem to have too much impact for betting purposes when theres about 1/4 deck dealt out of a 2 deck game..But, when were talking 1 and 1/4 deck into a 2 deck game and with 7 Aces have been dealt out you need to be real careful not to overbet..On Several Occasions i have had a RC of +6 or 7(w/7 aces) only for My Overall edge to be slightly above 0..And Yes, i found myself drastically overbetting in these situations..In seems you have to be very very careful when calculating your TC at this point while throwing in a accurate Ace-adjustment..Not so easy!

    The Game i play(in practice) has a -.39 HE off the top....With Exactly 1 complete deck removed the House Edge is now reduced to -.05..

    I like to bet as follows with NO Large increases(helps with the FA.)(CVCX) Ao2 A/SC..Single Hand only!!!

    Tc+2 .67%=3 unit bet
    TC+3 .99%=5 unit bet
    TC+4 1.31%=7 unit bet
    TC+5 1.62%=10 unit bet
    TC+6 1.99%=15 unit bet

    Lol, as you can see T3 between the FA. adjusting for the( correct weight)surplus or shortage of Aces and Now throw in an accurate TC calculation in addition to playing every hand to your index so that it reflects your actual advantage and your probably gonna find yourself under or over betting all day long..Youd be surprised when you calculate your actual advantage vereses what your actually betting for that next hand..Hppeens more than one thinks im sure...

    Anyway thanks for listening..Special Thanks to all those who commented here...
    Last edited by Jack Jackson; 10-28-2017 at 01:55 AM.
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  13. #13
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Am I reading something into this that's not really there? 15-1 spread (assumes 1 unit below TC+2) in DD game and getting away with it?

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