Double Deck

[ZeeBabar]

Please stop offering misguided advice. Speaking with conviction doesn't make whatever garbage you're saying accurate and all you're doing is leading these players to the slaughterhouse. True count of +2 with the rules he's referencing on a double deck is .10%? REALLY? How about you try around the 1% marker regardless of how good the pen is. Good pen will result in over a 1% edge at +2.

I play DD most of the time. One game I play often has 80% penn, but rules are tough. H17, no DAS, no resplit Aces, double only 9-11. Two hands can only be played at start and double the minimum.

If TC goes to Plus 2, I am either playing one hand of $75 or two hands of $50. If TC is at Plus 1 or negative, I am down to one hand of $25.

I have no clue about summing but this works for me.

[Ryemo]

Please stop offering misguided advice. Speaking with conviction doesn't make whatever garbage you're saying accurate and all you're doing is leading these players to the slaughterhouse. True count of +2 with the rules he's referencing on a double deck is .10%? REALLY? How about you try around the 1% marker regardless of how good the pen is. Good pen will result in over a 1% edge at +2.

Huh?...

Each TC in Hi Lo is worth .5% roughly, so TC+2 is worth 1%. But you didn’t account for subtracting the house’s edge, which would be .6% (assuming we're still talking about the DD game with .4% HE).

Penetration has nothing to do with your edge either btw. If I’m playing a DD game with 50% pen and a DD game with 75% pen, a TC+2 has the same edge on either game. With that said, a game with better pen will yield higher EV, but that has nothing with the TC.

[APGuru]

Huh?...

Each TC in Hi Lo is worth .5% roughly, so TC+2 is worth 1%. But you didn’t account for subtracting the house’s edge, which would be .6% (assuming we're still talking about the DD game with .4% HE).

Penetration has nothing to do with your edge either btw. If I’m playing a DD game with 50% pen and a DD game with 75% pen, a TC+2 has the same edge on either game. With that said, a game with better pen will yield higher EV, but that has nothing with the TC.

Wrong on both statements. Each TC in Hilo is not worth .5%, that's just an estimate. In shoe games, the TC +1 it actually goes up around .75% NOT .5%. The rest of the TC's it starts leveling off around .60% give or take. In double deck games, it''s even more at about .85% for TC+1. And yes, penetration does affect each edge at each TC, sims will tell you that. It has to do with the deep penetration towards the end of the shoe when the cut card comes out and you're doubling and splitting and taking more and more cards.

[Three]

The fact that you have to make minimum bets with a disadvantage does not play a factor in deciding your bet sizes when you do have an advantage.

I disagree. It is the freq with which you make minimum bets at a disadvantage that is the killer. Those negative bets occur at much high frequency than the bets you make at a positive count. They have a huge impact on your EV and RoR. Unless you are only playing positive counts, setting your advantage bets without regard to the negative is suicide.

I agree with Stealth. If you are backcounting you can flat bet because you are making no disadvantage bets. Once you start making disadvantage bets a ramp is necessary. The more disadvantage bets you make the higher spread required of the same EV.

[Freightman]

I disagree. It is the freq with which you make minimum bets at a disadvantage that is the killer. Those negative bets occur at much high frequency than the bets you make at a positive count. They have a huge impact on your EV and RoR. Unless you are only playing positive counts, setting your advantage bets without regard to the negative is suicide.

Stealth is correct. Kelly is a strategy that has been adapted for AP play - it's true function being for stock market investing. Negative waiting bets have to be accounted for in some fashion.

[Freightman]

Huh?...

Each TC in Hi Lo is worth .5% roughly, so TC+2 is worth 1%. But you didn’t account for subtracting the house’s edge, which would be .6% (assuming we're still talking about the DD game with .4% HE).

Penetration has nothing to do with your edge either btw. If I’m playing a DD game with 50% pen and a DD game with 75% pen, a TC+2 has the same edge on either game. With that said, a game with better pen will yield higher EV, but that has nothing with the TC.

Further, by inference, the shittier cut game requires a higher spread in order to beat it.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Each TC in Hilo is not worth .5%, that's just an estimate. In shoe games, the TC +1 it actually goes up around .75% NOT .5%. The rest of the TC's it starts leveling off around .60% give or take. In double deck games, it''s even more at about .85% for TC+1. And yes, penetration does affect each edge at each TC, sims will tell you that. It has to do with the deep penetration towards the end of the shoe when the cut card comes out and you're doubling and splitting and taking more and more cards.

I agree that 0.50 is an estimate - more accurately a mean figure.
But your higher figures stated above seem to be exaggerated.
Indeed I believe that much of the time it is lower, not higher.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"It is the freq with which you make minimum bets at a disadvantage that is the killer."

+1 I would add that this is partially the reason that we avoid 8 deck games.

[APGuru]

I agree that 0.50 is an estimate - more accurately a mean figure.
But your higher figures stated above seem to be exaggerated.
Indeed I believe that much of the time it is lower, not higher.

When I say it goes up .75%, im not saying that's the exact edge at +1, im saying the edge INCREASES by .75% and not just .5% making the edge at TC+1 for shoes around .35% with average rules and to about .45+ with the standard h17, DAS double deck rules, all of which have average penetration. TC +2 will give about a .95% to about a 1.05% edge depending on decks used and rules.

[Freightman]

When I say it goes up .75%, im not saying that's the exact edge at +1, im saying the edge INCREASES by .75% and not just .5% making the edge at TC+1 for shoes around .35% with average rules and to about .45+ with the standard h17, DAS double deck rules, all of which have average penetration. TC +2 will give about a .95% to about a 1.05% edge depending on decks used and rules.

Before you guys start talking about edges, think it would be in order to disclose the "average" rules by which you are calculating that edge. Then, it might be an idea to discuss ramping based on that edge. Without that info, any talk of edge, rules and ramp is somewhat meaningless.

That's the point at where you can start to have a meaningful discussion.

[Stealth]

At TC 2 (over the course of the entire TC 2 bin) you have only a .87% advantage, so you should not bet more than $32 (5000 * %0.87 * .75). That would be a full kelly wager. Betting more than full kelly is foolish and counterproductive.

When designing bet structures for a game I believe one must consider the full range of events that can be expected.

As I suggested in an earlier post, negative bets and their corresponding frequency are a big concern. That and the doubles and splits are the reason we all try to conform to a kelly of less than 1%. Then we set our "Max Bet" at, say, TC +5 and conclude we are kelly betting. So, what about the TC+10 (7-8% edge) that would produce a Kelly bet much larger than your max bet? Is their no upward adjustment for those missed opportunities.

Designing effective bet structures is a complex task especially when you need to fit them into a specific bankroll and risk tolerance. Add the need for some cover and know that you need to be careful.

I would suggest that more card counters go broke due to betting issues than any other.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

TC +2 will give about a .95% to about a 1.05% edge

If this is correct I will crawl off

with my tail between my legs.

How did you determine this?

[Stealth]

Before you guys start talking about edges, think it would be in order to disclose the "average" rules by which you are calculating that edge.

Freightman, I don't use averages for design of betting structures. You can drown in a lake that has an average depth of two inches!

I use sim results by true count. I can discuss "averages" for informational purposes but when time to do the math, the sim rules.