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Thread: How Does Your Average Session Win Compare to Your Average Session Loss

  1. #1


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    How Does Your Average Session Win Compare to Your Average Session Loss

    It seems reasonable that your average session win should be larger than your average session loss. So I'm wondering if this is the case for most folks here.

    Except for this year, my average session loss has always been bigger than my average session win, but the larger number of session wins is usually enough to come up with a winning year. My average session win per year has ranged from 52% to 81%. As long as I have been tracking this, I never had more losing sessions than winning sessions in a year. My lifetime average of winning sessions is 64.2%.

    This year is the only odd ball year where my average session win is over twice as large as average session loss. As of right now average session win is at 81% for this year.

  2. #2


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    Session win percentage of about 60% is my experience. Have not looked at average sessions win/loss amounts in the aggregate but do look at it by player. One might think that the average wins should be larger than average losses but the session win loss percentage, bet sizes and session rounds played will skew this metric. If I always win 1,000 or lose 1,000 but I play 100 sessions and win 60 and lose 40 then I win 60,000 and lose 40,000 for a net of 20,000. So I am a winner with average win/loss equal.

    My observation is average win loss should stay close but I will do some more research with my session history data. Normalizing the comparison to a ratio may serve to answer more accurately. Also need enough session records to represent enough rounds to be at N0 and N0 for 2SD in order to have some reasonable levels of probability.

    Stay tuned.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    This year, my average winning session is +274.11$ and my average losing session is -348.25$. Interesting. Most of the difference is due to not enough data points. I don't consider myself one to dig usually. I do, however, like to book wins. Sometimes I'll leave early just because I'm up and want to log it. I think that may be some of the cause of the 74$ difference.

    58% of my sessions this year are wins, 42% are losses. I only have 109 sessions logged for the year though, so not much can be drawn from it yet.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
    Last edited by Bubbles; 11-07-2017 at 03:11 AM.

  4. #4
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    Session win percentages vary considerably due to
    the many factors that influence our P/L.

    As the redoubtable 'Stealth' has pointed out, 60%
    winning sessions is not unreasonable.
    For me, it has been 62% - 65% for decades.
    At 50%, reasonable profits "should be" assured.

    To see what the long run results project for you,
    you look at the
    results in terms of Z-Scores.

    Your winning amounts [per session] "should be"
    higher than your average losses per session.

    The problem is that the player generally has
    a minuscule sample size with insufficient
    data to provide significant data analysis.

    Also noteworthy is that many non-expert players
    tend to "lock-up" modest wins, and "chase" their
    losses.

    Most players do not keep accurate financial records.

    Understanding "SCORE" and "C-SCORE" is particularly
    helpful, as those standardized and variable metrics,
    take table conditions into consideration.


    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 11-07-2017 at 06:13 AM.

  5. #5


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    Here's a nice chart from Norm that shows what you should expect as far as percentage of winning sessions. It depends on session length. I'm not sure if you could draw a conclusion from this as to what the average winning session vs. the average losing session should look like.

    https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackvariance3.htm

  6. #6


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    On average my daily session wins or losses are around $10k with the extremes being at $25k. My largest session loss is greater than my largest win by a couple thousand, but I was playing a game with high variance (not blackjack) at double the typical stakes. After reviewing my play to see if I made any mistakes, I don't think too much of it.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Understanding "SCORE" and "C-SCORE" is particularly
    helpful, as those standardized and variable metrics,
    take table conditions into consideration.
    Especially fan of C-Score. Graphing of C-Score by session over time with an overlay of actual results will provide a perspective on your game selection relative to your bankroll and variances.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #8


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    Please share your record keeping spread sheet without data or with "doctored" data. Please recommend ready made software or what should be in record keeping if one should create it him/herself. I have an Excel but very limit things to record. Thanks

  9. #9


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    Record keeping is one aspect of this issue and the other is the analysis of the information. Spread sheet for these is a misnomer, my excel files have thousands of lines of VBA code for many functions with excel serving as both a delivery mechanism and a spreadsheet.

    Think of it record keeping this way. I want you to tell me enough information that I can compare your actual results with the results from CVCX and provide an analysis both of that session and of your long term cumulative sessions. This is a level that many AP's are not willing to commit to while wins/losses and hours played are adequate for their needs. I do not argue with that perspective, just that team environments have more rigid requirements for tracking and analysis. My systems are not for all but, when used, do provide insight from many perspectives. I currently have the benefit of the records of over 6,500 team player sessions of varying game attributes and have the ability to examine those from many differing perspectives.

    There is a companion excel system (it extracts data from the tracking system) that manages a team bankroll, individual player bankroll accounts, cash management, expenses, allocation of results, exceptions etc. Theses excel systems were not just developed, they evolved, since I started team play in 2013.

    PM me if you have an interest and we can discuss.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by cc12b View Post
    Please recommend ready made software or what should be in record keeping if one should create it him/herself.
    FYI, we track the following information per session:

    Date
    Time
    Player ID
    Type - Spot, Big Player, Balanced Betting, AllPlay
    Partner ID (spotter or balanced bettor)
    Actual Results
    Game Played (Example: 6D H17 Das Rsa Sr 78 cards cut off) and count used (HiLo, Zen, KO, etc)
    Unit - dollar amount of base unit for bet ramp
    Bet Ramp ID - predefined bet ramps to suit various play protocols
    Wong out % - % of time wonged out at TC-1 or less
    Rounds played - # rounds played if BP or number of shoes played if other type
    spots played - adjust variance calculations based on spots played
    Casino
    Trip ID


    Needless to say there are shortcuts to the reporting process that takes place immediately after player leaves table. To analyze the data you have to have a game model to compare it to and data from CVCX is used to provide those models.

    As I have mentioned, not many lone AP's want or need to collect this detail of data. As both a student of the game and of team play, it is highly valuable to our adventures.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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