Spanish 21 EV?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Six and a half years ago I answered this question, thus ...

All Clear,

I am sorry to burst your bubble but in dollars and cents, on any basis,

[per hand, per 100 hands, per year, etc.] your gain is essentially nothing.

The notion that "every penny counts", or the equivalent thereof, is shortsighted and psychopathological.

You have a $10 match play and you wait until you have a 2% advantage. Whoopee! Your e.v.has increased by 20 cents!

You need to focus on the basics — improving your game selection, counting accuracy, bet sizing accuracy, playing accuracy, etc.

Think for a moment of what your average wager is and how many hands per hour you are playing,

and for how many hours you are playing. That figure is your "handle" — that is your aggregate bets.

IF you are earning 0.50%, or less, you may realize that saving a few nickels anddimes represent an increment of approximately zero.

You are likely getting even money on a BJ and your bonus payoff will apply
to your bet ~ but not to the match play coupon.

I had played where they take your money and hand you back the coupon.
Are you sure that that is not the case?

[Meistro123]

Hmmm, so how did the OP come with his -0.333 threshold and is it correct? If it's not correct then the chart I sent him is useless for this.

A match play is not worth a full bet because it is surrendered on a win. The value of the match play varies depending on how you use it. For example, if you can bet a match play on a number straight up in roulette it is worth a lot more than if you play it in blackjack. Blackjack is one of the worst games you can play it on, although if you can surrender it in lieu of your bet then it becomes much more attractive.

Because the match play is surrendered on a win, it's value is roughly 50% of an actual bet. So in reality when you surrender the match play you are getting 66% of your money back, not 50%, because the value of the blackjack $5 bet is $5 but the value of the match play bet is $2.40 or w/e. So you want to surrender more aggressively, because surrender returns -.33 instead of -.5. So any hand that has ev of -.33 or lower becomes a surrender.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Six and a half years ago I answered this question, thus ...

All Clear,

I am sorry to burst your bubble but in dollars and cents, on any basis, [per hand, per 100 hands, per year, etc.]

your gain is essentially nothing.

The notion that "every penny counts", or the equivalent thereof, is shortsighted and psychopathological.

You have a $10 match play and you wait until you have a 2% advantage. Whoopee! Your e.v.has increased by 20 cents!

You need to focus on the basics — improving your game selection, counting accuracy, bet sizing accuracy, playing accuracy, etc.

Think for a moment of what your average wager is and how many hands per hour you are playing,

and for how many hours you are playing. That figure is your "handle" — that is your aggregate bets.

IF you are earning an estimated 0.50% or less you may realize that saving a few nickels and dimes represent an increment of approximately zero.

I would add that you are likely getting even money on a BJ and your bonus payoff will apply

to your bet ~ but not the match play coupon.

I had played where they take your money and hand you back the coupon. Are you sure that that is not the case?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

One day I noticed a novice beginner for whom I had
undertaken some elementary mentorship, hadn't used
his match plays. He (later) looked me in the eyes and,
trying to sound smart, told me that he had not had an
advantage exceeding 1.0%.

He was trying to find a way to increase his e.v. by more
than "one thin dime."

Of course, I told him that, to blend in, (ploppy style), he
should break out his match play coupons the instant that
he had taken a seat ~ using the coupons as soon as possible.

[Gronbog]

Because the match play is surrendered on a win, it's value is roughly 50% of an actual bet. So in reality when you surrender the match play you are getting 66% of your money back, not 50%, because the value of the blackjack $5 bet is $5 but the value of the match play bet is $2.40 or w/e. So you want to surrender more aggressively, because surrender returns -.33 instead of -.5. So any hand that has ev of -.33 or lower becomes a surrender.

But because the coupon is also "surrendered" on a surrender in this case, you don't get to keep the coupon, so you're left with your original live money bet. Surrender is therefore a push in this scenario. 3's point about the EVs of the rest of the actions for each hand being altered is well taken, however.

[Three]

You are likely getting even money on a BJ and your bonus payoff will apply
to your bet ~ but not to the match play coupon.

Nope. I know what property he is talking about. You get all bonuses payed on the coupon.

I had played where they take your money and hand you back the coupon.
Are you sure that that is not the case?

That is more spot on. The new owners are giving better cuts but it is still hard to win there. Better but not good.

Hmmm, so how did the OP come with his -0.333 threshold and is it correct? If it's not correct then the chart I sent him is useless for this.

Without factoring in doubles and splits, for a matched bet to be no advantage to either the player or the house you must win one for every two you lose.That is where the -0.333 comes from. At exactly the -0.3333 threshold variance of zero would break the tie in favor of surrender. Not the -0.5 of normal surrender (win one and lose three). I hope I did that right. LoL

[Gronbog]

Without factoring in doubles and splits, for a matched bet to be no advantage to either the player or the house you must win one for every two you lose.That is where the -0.333 comes from. At exactly the -0.3333 threshold variance of zero would break the tie in favor of surrender. Not the -0.5 of normal surrender (win one and lose three). I hope I did that right. LoL

Ahhh, but the EV of surrendering (lose the coupon, keep the money) must be compared against the EVs of taking the other available actions and continuing to play according to the adjusted basic strategy for the resulting hands. I still believe that the EV of surrender is zero in this scenario and that you should surrender any hands which are negative EV according to the adjusted basic strategy.

Grosjean talks about this option for blackjack in his article and gives the adjusted basic strategy. If I can reproduce it using this model, then I can do the same for Spanish 21.

This would also prove that the table I sent to the OP is useless, since it contains EVs for actions according to the normal basic strategy.

[Three]

I still believe that the EV of surrender is zero in this scenario and that you should surrender any hands which are negative EV according to the adjusted basic strategy.

Agreed. The value of the coupon is already figured into the play. Once it is bet the value changes according to the matchup received. It no longer has a flat theoretical value.

[Meistro123]

I still believe that the EV of surrender is zero in this scenario and that you should surrender any hands which are negative EV according to the adjusted basic strategy.

How can the EV of surrender be 0? Either it is -.5 or -.33 but under no scenario is surrendering breaking even. But of course it is actually -.33 because a mathplay coupon is not worth as much as a bet because it is surrendered on a win. Surrendering a hand that has a -.1 expectation would be a serious mistake.

[Meistro123]

When are saying that surrendering is break even, are you submitting that the match play coupon has no value? How much do you think a $10 match play coupon is worth? How much would you give a vagrant if he was offering to sell you his? Clearly when you surrender and lose the match play coupon, you are negative the value of the match play coupon whatever that may be. So the only task then is to calculate the value of the matchplay coupon, which Grosjean has done for us in "Beyond Coupons".

[All Clear]

Gronbog- I received your sheet. Thanks so much! I'll analyze it, and if anyone wants the info, shoot me a note on this page starting on November 7th or so (I need time to examine each cell, and am not a full time AP).

you are very lucky

Hi Stop- Yes, this is a big deal, and I disagree with Flash that this is just chasing pennies. This store gives overlapping match play offers at certain times, and is known to be quite generous for match plays. I saw someone surrendering and only losing the match play (was confirmed with the floor), and realized that this can significantly change my EV overall. TThree wrote about this store "Match Play offers can overlap. I was going to say you lose the coupon and are done but I have had stacks of more than 30 $25 MP coupons there." - and that doesn't shock me. I have had $150 (6*25) in Match Play myself for a single visit, and I am by no means a high roller.

I know the place. They have paid the bonuses for years. That said Match Play results have not been good there on SP21 and I have never hit a bonus using a MP. I am not sure how the math works out but I bet there are better options for playing the Match Play there.

Hi TThree- I believe you are incorrect, and with the ability to surrender and only lose a third of your bet, I would expect (and I don't just throw around these comments- I do take the time to research) that this is the best Match Play option in the casino, at least outside the high-limit room. If you disagree, check the store's match play coupons (you can't play it on a single number in Roulette), and tell me what you think is a better option. :-)

The strategy for doubling and splitting may also change, depending on whether they will let you do so with real money and for how much real money. I don't have that strategy, but could generate it.

Nice job Gronbog- that is correct, I noted this in the past, and I am impressed that you considered it. Give yourself a pat on the back. :-) For a defensive split, when betting $25 in chips and a $25 match play, you would want to split with the same two items- a $25 chip and another $25 coupon (this is allowed). For an offensive split, when betting the same $25 in chips and a $25 match play, you would want to split with $50 (this is also allowed) total in chips instead (in theory, you are "splitting for more", since the base bet has an EV of $37.50, while your second split has $50 on it). You would also double down slightly more often (perhaps 9 vs 5 in a neutral count? perhaps A5 v 5 or A4 v 6?), since you can add $50 to your original $37.50 bet. But this gets more complicated.... though I think the chart you sent me will allow me to figure it out. If you want my results for splitting and doubling, let me know- it will take many hours to set up, and I have a full-time job.... Message me here after November 7th, after I have analyzed all the cells.

A match play is not worth a full bet because it is surrendered on a win. The value of the match play varies depending on how you use it. For example, if you can bet a match play on a number straight up in roulette it is worth a lot more than if you play it in blackjack. Blackjack is one of the worst games you can play it on, although if you can surrender it in lieu of your bet then it becomes much more attractive.

Hi Meistro - no casino in my town allows you to bet a match play on a number in Roulette. Blackjack actually may be the best place to play it, when considering the options given- the standard place you are allowed to play it in most of the casinos, are on Blackjack, Baccarat (player bet), Caribbean Stud (ante bet), Pai Gow Poker, Craps (pass wager only), Asian Poker, Roulette (red, 1 - 18, or even bet only).... and with those choices, I used to do blackjack. Putting it on a Spanish 21 game where you only lose the coupon on a surrender is BY FAR the best place to play it that I can see.

That is more spot on. The new owners are giving better cuts but it is still hard to win there. Better but not good.

Without factoring in doubles and splits, for a matched bet to be no advantage to either the player or the house you must win one for every two you lose.That is where the -0.333 comes from. At exactly the -0.3333 threshold variance of zero would break the tie in favor of surrender. Not the -0.5 of normal surrender (win one and lose three). I hope I did that right. LoL

Yes, TThree, you did that as I did, correctly. :-) And we are definitely talking about the same place- there are new owners.... I never thought of that place as a sweaty joint- but it could be that I don't play as high stakes as you do. If you have had experiences there I should know about, shoot me an email. As a fellow Spanish 21 counter, I would want to know all I can to stay on their good side- I want to keep getting their match plays. You have my (real life) email address from before. :-)

[Three]

When are saying that surrendering is break even, are you submitting that the match play coupon has no value?

The match plays value depends on the matchup and only actually has value if you win the bet. Before you bet it you can calculate a theoretical value but one it is bet and has a hand associated with it the value depends on your hands likelihood of winning or losing, assuming the match play isn't lost on a push. It has a value of the face value if you win and no value if you lose. If you surrender in this scenario the value of the matchplay is the difference in EV from your theoretical and 0 since you keep your main bet and just lose the paper. Obviously you make this play because it is the way the matchplay is most valuable after you get your initial 2 cards and see the dealers up-card.

How much do you think a $10 match play coupon is worth?

Well it says it has a cash value of 0.00001 cents on the coupon. That is why it is illegal to take half your bet AND the coupon. They would then be taking more than half your bet.

How much would you give a vagrant if he was offering to sell you his?

You are required to show ID to play a matchplay in most places so it would be worthless to me.

Clearly when you surrender and lose the match play coupon, you are negative the value of the match play coupon whatever that may be. So the only task then is to calculate the value of the matchplay coupon, which Grosjean has done for us in "Beyond Coupons".

Covered in the first quotes answer. Grosjean did this for SP21 with all the bonuses paid on the coupon and this surrender rule? LoL I don't think so.

[Three]

If you disagree, check the store's match play coupons (you can't play it on a single number in Roulette), and tell me what you think is a better option. :-)

You get half your bet back on the even money roulette bets in this jurisdiction. I have never played a MP on roulette there but that usually means you either lose half your bet and keep the MP or you just lose the MP and no money. Not every store does it the same. That doesn't necessarily make it the best place to use it but it has to be considered into the decision. For direct bets I think roulette is the best place to play it because you get half the coupons face value if green is spun making it a true 50/50 proposition.

I never thought of that place as a sweaty joint- but it could be that I don't play as high stakes as you do.

It is what happens to you and your info after they back you off. That is equivalent to more heat. I just don't like the conditions I find there most of the time.