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Thread: Spanish 21 EV?

  1. #1


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    Spanish 21 EV?

    So I noticed that my neighborhood store which gives me the most match-play coupons, allows for these coupons to be used on Spanish 21 (many other local stores don't allow match play coupons to be used on SP21). Not only that, but there is this sweet deal- if you use it on the game, and surrender, they take your match-play coupon only, but you get to keep your chip. Using the standard valuation of 50% of value for a match-play coupon (so a $50 match play coupon, is actually worth $25, give or take, in cash), this means you can surrender and only lose 33.3% of the overall bet. As I get lots of Match Play coupons each time I play, it is worth knowing the proper surrender strategy to use.....

    Does anyone know of a chart similar to this for blackjack (https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/), that shows the EV for each hand at S17 Spanish 21? Then I can just look at which hands have an optimal hit/stand decision that is under -0.333, and surrender those, when using my coupon.

    The easiest answers, are when the original optimal play involves standing. Per Katarina Walker's book, page 54, in a S17 game, the dealer busts 31.5% (less than 33.3%) of the time, so with a match-play coupon, surrendering when one should otherwise stand with a stiff total (such as 15 v 2 and 16 v 2) is warranted. Against a 3, the dealer will bust 33.5% (more than 33.3%) of the time, but page 134 shows that when the count is positive (using her count, but the same would likely apply to any other reasonable counting system), the busting percentage is slightly higher than that. Because I would only use the match play when the count is slightly positive, I will not surrender instead of standing against a dealer 3.

    The irony of my asking this question, is that I actually asked something similar six and a half years ago (I was counting cards at Spanish 21 before it was "cool" to do so....)- kudos to Assume_R for giving me an answer, for each True Count (!) for a few situations- see the link from Blackjackinfo.com- ("https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/spanish-21-expected-return-charts.22380/"). It shows that surrendering 15 v T, 16 v 9,T,A, 17 v T,A is the correct play (since the EV for each of these is far far worse than -.333), and 15 v 9,A and 16 v 7,8 is almost surely the right play, based on this information. I'm wondering about 12 v 7,8,9,T,A, 13 v 7,8,9,T,A 14 v 2,7,8,9,T,A, 15 v 7,8, 17 v 8,9, and even 18 v 9,T,A. Of course, I'm fine with an answer for this using an infinite deck model, and no counting. That question from almost seven years ago seems silly now, as it would only save me a quarter (see the thread)- but with a $50 match play coupon and $50 in chips, this answer would make a much bigger difference. Any help would be appreciated. :-)

    I really try not to ask questions on this forum, and find the answers myself, but am stumped here. Anyone else play Spanish 21 with Match Plays? Anyone have a simulator for the game, or one for blackjack, where the tens can be removed, that can provide the EV figures for the questionable hands, or at least whether they are above or below -0.333?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by All Clear View Post
    if you use it on the game, and surrender, they take your match-play coupon only, but you get to keep your chip.
    you are very lucky

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by All Clear View Post
    Anyone else play Spanish 21 with Match Plays?
    Make sure they pay all the bonuses on the coupon. If they don't it is a bad place to play your coupon.

  4. #4


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    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...ouponsbjfo.pdf

    Gives basic strategy deviations for different match play surrender options for blackjack. He also shows that blackjack is rarely the best option for using these coupons. However, if you have no choice but to use the coupon on a blackjack variant then, without specific information on Spanish 21, then blackjack with surrender may be your best option.

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    Actually, I have the chart you need. I can't PM you because you're not a member. Please provide a throw-away email address.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    Actually, I have the chart you need. I can't PM you because you're not a member. Please provide a throw-away email address.
    (After I received Gronbog's note and file, I edited this post to remove my throw-away email address, which I would prefer not be posted publicly for an extended period. If you are reading this, and want to contact me, post on this page your throw-away email, and I'll shoot you a note from mine)

    Wow- thanks so much! I can't use the coupon on surrender blackjack, since there is no blackjack with surrender in this casino (and don't think there are many stores in the town near me that offer this rule, at least outside the high-limit rooms).

    TThree- they pay the bonuses. :-)

    Also, a note above that my 31.5% figure (in the original post) is for the dealer busting on a 2, though that is likely obvious when I wrote that the adjustments to make are 15 v 2, and 16 v 2, right after quoting the 31.5% number.
    Last edited by All Clear; 11-03-2017 at 03:43 PM. Reason: Edited to remove my throw-away email address, after I received the file from Gronbog. Thanks, Gronbog!

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    Quote Originally Posted by All Clear View Post
    TThree- they pay the bonuses. :-)
    I know the place. They have paid the bonuses for years. That said MP results have not been good there on SP21 and I have never hit a bonus using a MP. I am not sure how the math works out but I bet there are better options for playing the MP there. As you know not many surrenders in SP21 unless you wait for a high playing count to use the MP coupon. But that can raise red flags at a notoriously sweaty place.

  8. #8


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    The basic strategy for surrender would change, calling for many more surrenders than normal. That's why he wanted the chart with the EVs of each action.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    The basic strategy for surrender would change, calling for many more surrenders than normal. That's why he wanted the chart with the EVs of each action.
    Good catch. I missed that one. The place is very generous with MP's. Offers can pile overlap. I was going to say you lose the coupon and are done but I have had stacks of more than 30 $25 MP coupons there. Gronbog can you please Email me the surrender chart for a MP coupon were the bonuses pay on the coupon and you just lose the coupon on surrender? TYIA

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by All Clear View Post
    Does anyone know of a chart similar to this for blackjack (https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/), that shows the EV for each hand at S17 Spanish 21? Then I can just look at which hands have an optimal hit/stand decision that is under -0.333, and surrender those, when using my coupon.
    I may be missing something, but if they only take your coupon, then you're left with your matching bet, so you've won nothing and lost nothing. In this case, should you not be surrendering any negative EV hand?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I may be missing something, but if they only take your coupon, then you're left with your matching bet, so you've won nothing and lost nothing. In this case, should you not be surrendering any negative EV hand?
    Yes you are missing something. When you bet a MP you are getting paid 2:1 on the matching money. That changes what is minus EV a lot.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Gronbog can you please Email me the surrender chart for a MP coupon were the bonuses pay on the coupon and you just lose the coupon on surrender? TYIA
    I don't have that chart directly, but the chart that the OP asked for contains enough information to alter the surrender strategy.

    The strategy for doubling and splitting may also change, depending on whether they will let you do so with real money and for how much real money. I don't have that strategy, but could generate it. Unfortunately, I am leaving for vacation tomorrow with no computer and won't have time to do that today. I'll be back Nov 12.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Yes you are missing something. When you bet a MP you are getting paid 2:1 on the matching money. That changes what is minus EV a lot.
    Hmmm, so how did the OP come with his -0.333 threshold and is it correct? If it's not correct then the chart I sent him is useless for this.

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