Trip evaluation and decision

[ZeeBabar]

Now that I am retired, local casinos have counter measures for me, I have a bit more time for short trips, playing $25 to $150 or 2 x $25 to 2 X $150, when is a trip worth it? For example, a trip is available that will cost me $100 to get to a destination, another $125 for car rental, $25 for car parking at home (say a total of $250), is a trip worth taking for 12-14 hours of actual play (I get in a Thursday night, play Friday and Saturday, depart in wee hours of Sunday)?

Another is a drive (4 hours) to get to a city and I get there at 2:00 p.m., drive to a couple of casinos and play till Midnight, catch a few hours of sleep and drive back the next morning. I assume I can get about 6 hours of table time. the cost is about $60 in Gas, $60 for motel or $120.

What criteria should I set for taking short trips? Given personal situation, week long trips are not possible.

What criteria makes for a successful short trip? I would consider $1k and up as a hugely successful trip, $2-900 as a moderately successful trip, breaking even or winning under $200 as acceptable but unsuccessful. anything less as a "waste of time'.

[Gronbog]

Measure the worth of your trip in EV per day after deducting expenses. Once you have that, only you can decide what threshold makes it worth your while.

After the fact, the success of a trip, or lack thereof, has little to do with the monetary result. Instead you should be considering:

• Did you get enough quality play in to meet your planned EV?
• Did you keep to your expense estimate?
• Did you draw any heat that you need to consider next time?
• Did you make any mistakes that you need to avoid next time?
• Did you learn anything?
• Based on the above, would you make the same trip again?

[Midwest Player]

Another is a drive (4 hours) to get to a city and I get there at 2:00 p.m., drive to a couple of casinos and play till Midnight, catch a few hours of sleep and drive back the next morning. I assume I can get about 6 hours of table time. the cost is about $60 in Gas, $60 for motel or $120.

This is the kind of trip you should take, but you need to make it at least a two night trip. Why do you have to get back the next day when your flying trips are four days? This trip is not worth it for just one day. You have to make it at least a two night trip for it to be worth while otherwise you are just playing exhausted.

There are members on this board who are from your state. Hopefully they will reach out and offer some guidance to you for casinos that are on the other side of your state.

This year I made 2 day, 3 day, 4 day, and 5 day trips. The majority of my trips this year were only two day trips and my biggest trip win for this year occurred on a 2 day trip. This year two thirds of my trips had wins over $1,000 and one third had wins under $1,000. I don't know how this happened, but so far no losing trips for the year which I don't think ever happened before. However, losing trips are not a waste of time they are part of the game and happen often.

[Ryemo]

How about this Zee...

What if I told you that if you go on this 3 day trip, you’re going to make $500/day ($1,500 total). In order to make that money though, you’ll need to play 5 hours of blackjack each day. You’re going to approximately spend $75 in gas for the trip and spend 4 hrs driving each way to get to your destination (8 hrs total). You’ve got some food and room comps so you won’t spend any money on rooms but you might need to buy a few meals out of your own pocket, so you’ll probably spend roughly $40 for grub. The rest should be comped. You’ve got 2 free bets that have a face value of $65 each, but because this state doesn’t pay AND replace, the EV is only worth 50%. So the two free bets are worth $65 all together. Keep in mind this will also put an additional 480 Miles on your vehicle, so you’ll be 1/8 closer to needing an oil change by the end of your trip. And I know you feel bad stiffing the dealer, so you’re going to need to tip $10/hr for every hour of blackjack you play. So let’s recap:

Revenue (Let’s call it EV) = +$1,500
Gas Expense = -$75
Food Expense = -$40
Free bets = +$65
Room Expense = $0
Miles Driven = 480 Miles
Time Spent Driving = 8 hrs
Oil Change = -$6.25 (1/8 of $50 oil change)
Dealer tokes = -$150 ($10/hr for 15 hrs)

Let’s add it up: Grand total = +1,293.75 (or $431.25 of net profit for each day of your trip)

If I planned out your next trip like such, do you think you could figure out on your own if it was still worth it for you, or would you still like me to hold your hand?

[Romes]

Gronbog gave you fantastic advice. If you've counted cards for any length, you'll know that you're going to lose ~50% of the trips you go, in the long run. You really should base all of your results off of either EV or CE, as that tells you how much work you actually accomplished.

Think of it this way: Every time you play blackjack, counting and playing properly to have an advantage, you're basically adding your EV, even down to the pennies per hand, to a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. So slowly, as you play over time, this pot builds and builds in EV. Your day to day transactions, sessions, trips, whatever you want to call them, are all MEANINGLESS in the short term. Only when you've hit N(0), the long run, again whatever you want to call it, will you be able to realize your advantage and collect on your pot of gold. So until then, ignore your "+1000 this trip - yay" and your "-1000 this trip, omg waste of life!" because so long as you're building EV, you ARE doing something productive... adding to that pot of gold that you'll eventually collect on.

[DSchles]

Here's the problem with every single piece of (excellent) advice that has ever been offered to Zee for the years that he's been on this site. It's all a monumental waste of time. The proof? You're still saying the same things today that you've been saying for years, and Zee has demonstrated, ad nauseam, that he's emotionally incapable of following any of the advice he's received.

Every couple of weeks, he finds a new way to put new spin on some old, time-worn question or concept that has been asked and answered a thousand times on this site. It isn't clear to me if he does it for sport, or if he does it because he genuinely has a concern, but it really doesn't matter, and that's because he's still going to sweat every bet he makes, play tired, quit when he shouldn't, play when he shouldn't, etc. Zee is not emotionally equipped to play this game properly, and, in my opinion, everyone here does him a disservice by playing into his idealized world where, eventually, he'll do everything the way he ought to. It's never going to happen because, deep down, he doesn't want it to happen.

It shouldn't take someone years to learn how to bet and approach this game properly. This isn't brain surgery. That Zee still asks the kinds of questions he does means that either a) he's playing with all of us; b) he is incapable of learning; or c) he understands what is being said but is completely emotionally ill-equipped to act on the advice. You're all entitled to speculate as to which of the above may be true, but my opinion is that it's (c).

Don

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Yes, ZeeBabar is emotionally ill-equipped to play BJ
and limited intellect has prevented him from accruing
meaningful theoretical and pragmatic knowledge.

Her is a self-proclaimed "pathological gambler" and as
such he is not able to approach the game of blackjack
in a sound mathematically grounded fashion.

[SpikeBJ]

I always spend at least 2 nights at a driving distance casino. 3 nights at a minimum for a flying trip, preferably 4. The only time I spend 1 night is if I am travelling for other reasons and manage to route my trip through a casino town. The casinos I play in with card, are happy to give me a buffet after every 3 hours or so of total play and my base bet is $15, generally rated around $45.

[Three]

You have been given some fine answers but I check some other things before I plan any trip:

1) The months free play and incentives so I can plan trips that have the most free EV over expenses before I even start playing. Like I might plan a trip that drive by 3 casinos on my way to the destination. Casino #1 has a $10 EV on free play because they are sweaty bastards. The next casino I have $150 in free slot play ($148 EV) and they have a great game offering but it is hard to predict playable conditions. Casino #3 has $100 match play offer ($50 EV) but they will have great opportunities to play when I will be passing through if casino #2 doesn't have me playing better conditions. If I get tied up at casino #2 the opportunity at casino #3 will be limited. I collect that in both directions for a drive by EV of $408.

I can plan my stay at my destination to be 1 night and hit two offer days for a $60 in match plays ($30 EV), $50 in gas gift card ($50 EV), and $180 in free bets ($90 in EV), for a total destination EV of $170 in incentives. Total incentives $578 for an one night trip.
I can stay 3 nights or more and hit 3 or 4 offer periods for $120 on match plays ($60 EV), $100 in gas gift cards ($100 in EV), and $540 in free bets ($270 EV). Total destination incentives for multi-night trips $430+. For a total of $838+ EV from incentives for a multi-day trip.

Rooms are comped and I am RFB but I usually choose to eat free at a club so I don't waste much time on a meal break. I get some free restaurant offers as well. And some comp points offers so I can eat at a restaurant and not erode my comp points.

Tolls are from $11.50 to $28.50 depending on my route and which destination I choose to go to. Gas about $15 to $20 for 4 or 5 hours of driving hours driving. I get free oil changes. This is pretty much independent of trip length. $50 is the most I pay in travel expenses, sometimes less than half that.

2) I check the events calendar to see how crowded I can expect the destination town to be. The calendar gives the length of the event and the number of people expected to be in town for the event. If the town will be too crowded I may decide a trip is not worth it. High roller tournaments will mean higher table limits which can help keep crowds down unless you are playing a game that most of the whales are playing. Conventions can be large or small. Events that involve children (cheer leading contests, dance competitions, etc) fill up rooms but don't crowd the casinos much. Learn whether your casinos will open more tables for events or will just have the normal amount of tables open.

3) I try to plan a trip so if I stay to the end I can try to get about 1/3rd my n0 in rounds in. That makes the odds of being ahead much more certain. I can leave anytime I want after spending the first night with no penalty. If the conditions suck and there is no reason to expect them to improve I am out of there. I have a nice profit from incentives already. If I win close to or over 5 figures I may decide to leave if conditions are expected to deteriorate. I have found usually good fortune like that doesn't last the entire trip and I am usually best off leaving at about that point. Due to scouting and years of experience I have a pretty good idea of what I can expect after talking to some casino employees. If I just can't win, as you described on your last trip, I may decide to leave unless conditions are really good, which is often the case when you do your worst.

[Freightman]

Measure the worth of your trip in EV per day after deducting expenses. Once you have that, only you can decide what threshold makes it worth your while.

After the fact, the success of a trip, or lack thereof, has little to do with the monetary result. Instead you should be considering:

• Did you get enough quality play in to meet your planned EV?
• Did you keep to your expense estimate?
• Did you draw any heat that you need to consider next time?
• Did you make any mistakes that you need to avoid next time?
• Did you learn anything?
• Based on the above, would you make the same trip again?

Nice post

[Freightman]

I always spend at least 2 nights at a driving distance casino. 3 nights at a minimum for a flying trip, preferably 4. The only time I spend 1 night is if I am travelling for other reasons and manage to route my trip through a casino town. The casinos I play in with card, are happy to give me a buffet after every 3 hours or so of total play and my base bet is $15, generally rated around $45.

On a flying trip, if I can arrange it, i plan for early am arrival at destination and depart later pm of early evening to go back ho e. Allows for 1/2 day play at no additional hotel expense.

[ZeeBabar]

Here's the problem with every single piece of (excellent) advice that has ever been offered to Zee for the years that he's been on this site. It's all a monumental waste of time. The proof? You're still saying the same things today that you've been saying for years, and Zee has demonstrated, ad nauseam, that he's emotionally incapable of following any of the advice he's received.

Every couple of weeks, he finds a new way to put new spin on some old, time-worn question or concept that has been asked and answered a thousand times on this site. It isn't clear to me if he does it for sport, or if he does it because he genuinely has a concern, but it really doesn't matter, and that's because he's still going to sweat every bet he makes, play tired, quit when he shouldn't, play when he shouldn't, etc. Zee is not emotionally equipped to play this game properly, and, in my opinion, everyone here does him a disservice by playing into his idealized world where, eventually, he'll do everything the way he ought to. It's never going to happen because, deep down, he doesn't want it to happen.

It shouldn't take someone years to learn how to bet and approach this game properly. This isn't brain surgery. That Zee still asks the kinds of questions he does means that either a) he's playing with all of us; b) he is incapable of learning; or c) he understands what is being said but is completely emotionally ill-equipped to act on the advice. You're all entitled to speculate as to which of the above may be true, but my opinion is that it's (c).

Don

First poor post from Don I have read in my 2-3 years on these forums. More often, he either addresses the question or he ignores it. I am sorry to know it bothers him. I am very simple. BJ is like my car. I became a good driver without knowing how to fix a flat or change a tire and have no interest in the inner workings of the car. Similarly, SCORE and NO and such are way above my head. I have learnt enough about playing BJ, an idea of BR, a spread I am comfortable with and I manage. I forget what I posted on what forum and when and most of my participation on forums is a stream of consciousness style of writing and if I have just returned from a losing trip I show my feelings and if I become uncertain, I ask (not try to do research or play with software). Same as I do when my car is pulling to the right or squealing.

Ryemo, when I drive the other side of the state, I have to pay for rooms and there are no free stuff for me.

Personal situations make it possible for just one 2-3 night trip a month. This, I take to LV at present. I have been there 3 times in the last three months and its been a win of $400 (slight loss if you consider expenses I incurred getting there and back), a win of $3400 (about $3000 after expenses) and a loss of $3700 (about $4k after expenses)

I could also go to Tunica but there are only two casinos of interest there and while I can go there for 2 nights (food and room comped), the drive now is 5 hours each way and about $ik miles on the car.

For me, LV is oddly cheaper to get to and back (thanks to Frontier airlines). Now, I am considering the other side of the state but is going for just one night and about 6-8 hours of play worth it? It costs a bit more to head to other destinations and I still can only go for 2-3 nights a trip.

In any case, I was trying to get a feel for what to consider in making such decisions.

[21forme]

First poor post from Don I have read in my 2-3 years on these forums

Don has the patience of a saint. If you've gotten to him, there's nothing more to say.