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Thread: Question.. I've been saving to accumulate a 5000 dollar bankroll for about 6 months.

  1. #1


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    Question.. I've been saving to accumulate a 5000 dollar bankroll for about 6 months.

    I'm asking for help now. I feel I need a little more than one to ten spread to beat the 8 deck 5 and 10 monimum penetration 75 percent if you're lucky. Crowded tables. You're lucky to get one on one for a shoe per session. Please advise me how to get more out of my bet spread staying under 7 or 8 percent. ROR (5000 dollar bankroll. My thinking is that it's be safer to start my 50 dollar half kelly max bet at true 4 rather than true 5. 50 dollars is half kelly at true 5 and 2/3 Kelly at true 4. 30 dollars is 2/3 kelly at true 3 and 15 dollars is 2/3 kelly at true 2. The ROR can't be too much grater than 5 percent? Question: does increasing from half to 2/3 kelly on first 3 bets have same affect as a larger bet spread? bet spread? 2/3 kelly at true 2 , 3, and 4 and half kelly at 5 and up. Can this beat eight decks and please let me know what ROR is with this betting scheme. Tempted to split 50 to each hand at plus 6 and up. With surrender and insurance its not hard to make this bet as manageable as one bet of 50. I need to get this 5 to 10 and I know ill need to travel to do it. I want as powerful a bet scheme as possible while staying in the comfort zone.

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  2. #2


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    CVCX is the tool you want. Then you can develop your own answers for all these type of bet-ramp questions at a given risk of ruin.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by terry0222 View Post
    CVCX is the tool you want. Then you can develop your own answers for all these type of bet-ramp questions at a given risk of ruin.
    I'm going to buy it for sure. I'm ready to start playing and bills and bankroll take up all extra money. Wondering if someone could throw me some ROR info for betting scheme indicqted....2/3 kelly for first 3 bets with max bet of 50 happening at true 4 and true 5 and up.

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk

  4. #4


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    The sims are going to give you the most accurate RoR information you can get. You can "rough it" and get an idea with some basic math, but it's not going to be as accurate as a simulation and you seem like you want a very precise answer (which is a good thing). One thing I would definitely recommend having your max bet out by TC +4, as TC +5 is just a bit late for the games now days in my opinion. Estimations have you at about $8/hour (for a S17 game) with a 1-10 spread having your $50 bet out at TC +4.

    AvgBet ~= $11
    OriginalSD = 1.15 * 11 = $12.65

    EV(1,000 hands) = (1,000 * 11) * (.015) = $165
    SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000) * 12.65 = $400... 2SD = $800... 3SD = $1200 ...worst you could be is $165 - $1200 = -$1,035

    EV(5,000 hands) = (5,000 * 11) * (.015) = $825
    SD(5,000 hands) = Sqrt(5,000) * 12.65 = $895... 2SD = $1789... 3SD = $2685 ...worst you could be is $825 - $2685 = -$1860

    EV(10,000 hands) = (10,000 * 11) * (.015) = $1650
    SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(10,000) * 12.65 = $1265... 2SD = $2530... 3SD = $3795 ...worst you could be is $1650 - $3795 = -$2145

    EV(25,000 hands) = (25,000 * 11) * (.015) = $4125
    SD(25,000 hands) = Sqrt(25,000) * 12.65 = $2000... 2SD = $4000... 3SD = $6000 ...worst you could be is $4125 - $6000 = -$1875

    EV(50,000 hands) = (50,000 * 11) * (.015) = $8250
    SD(50,000 hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 12.65 = $2828... 2SD = $5657... 3SD = $8484 ...worst you could be is $8250 - $8484 = -$234

    *AGAIN* All of these are more rough numbers and to get a very very exact precise number you'll want to get CVCX and run a SIM. But, from this you can see that your bankroll of $5,000 should be more than sufficient as the most you could be down (assuming you're playing with an average 1.5% edge, with a $5-$50 spread, max bet out at TC +4, AvgBet ~= $11) is at around 10,000 hands and approximately $2145. Don't forget these are all "worst case scenario" of -3SD from EV every point of the way as well.

    *Another Important Note*: Do you see how you're getting about $8/hour in EV? Well, now find a table with a beatable side bet (such as lucky ladies) and just from leveraging your count with the side bet and max $25 on it, you could still MORE THAN DOUBLE your EV. At the lower levels when you're building you need to attack every aspect of the game, in my opinion. Hell, with 8D and good PEN you could probably make more money just from counting the side bet than even just straight counting BJ.
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

  5. #5
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    Back counting does not require a large spread since you don't play any disadvantage cuts. What you want to do is play as few disadvantage counts as possible. You want to play advantage counts with as few people as possible. The pen you describe is horrible. I wouldn't even play it unless back counting.

    Now casinos have little tolerance for back counting so you will have to mix it up some but when you start a fresh shoe wong out if the count tanks and you are losing. You bet in anticipation of a high card round by the count. Every round that had the count lower is a high count round. That means while the count is tanking you are playing high card rounds. You can't know this in advance so you leave in disadvantage if you are losing. Don't feel you have to play just because you are there. With your BR (or any other BR for that matter) you aren't focusing on getting in rounds but rather getting in quality rounds. Use your count to make sure you pare down as many disadvantage bets as you can. A 1-2 spread back counting where 2 is your max bet will work fine.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Back counting does not require a large spread since you don't play any disadvantage cuts. What you want to do is play as few disadvantage counts as possible. You want to play advantage counts with as few people as possible. The pen you describe is horrible. I wouldn't even play it unless back counting.

    Now casinos have little tolerance for back counting so you will have to mix it up some but when you start a fresh shoe wong out if the count tanks and you are losing. You bet in anticipation of a high card round by the count. Every round that had the count lower is a high count round. That means while the count is tanking you are playing high card rounds. You can't know this in advance so you leave in disadvantage if you are losing. Don't feel you have to play just because you are there. With your BR (or any other BR for that matter) you aren't focusing on getting in rounds but rather getting in quality rounds. Use your count to make sure you pare down as many disadvantage bets as you can. A 1-2 spread back counting where 2 is your max bet will work fine.
    Don't forget he's play $5 8D... Almost every place I ever played that or have seen it there is just about zero heat... I'd suggest his approach is to mainly camp it out and just sit out during bad counts (bathroom break, phone call, the old 'I've lost too many hands in a row' or 'I just wanna take a break'). I would however completely agree with you that back counting seems to get fairly little tolerance now days. Another reason why I'd suggest mainly camping out. No need to get flat bet, or backed off for back counting a $5 game, when I'd assume he's hoping to build his bankroll and attack larger games down the road.
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

  7. #7


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    If you're going to wong in place, which I will do from time to time, I advise you say and do nothing, because you don't want to draw attention to yourself. When the dealer reminds you it is your bet, just slice the air in a 'cut off' sign and / or shake your head no. The most important thing about counting is keeping a low profile and not drawing attention to yourself.

  8. #8


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    "I am sitting out, see if I change the flow of these damn cards"

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by SpikeBJ View Post
    "I am sitting out, see if I change the flow of these damn cards"
    All excellent information especially the information romes sent thank you guys. I'm flying to Pittsburgh to play my first 6 to 8 sessions on six decks 80 percent pen with 5 and 10 dollar minimum. They have lucky ladies side count too. Meadows casino

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Romes View Post
    The sims are going to give you the most accurate RoR information you can get. You can "rough it" and get an idea with some basic math, but it's not going to be as accurate as a simulation and you seem like you want a very precise answer (which is a good thing). One thing I would definitely recommend having your max bet out by TC +4, as TC +5 is just a bit late for the games now days in my opinion. Estimations have you at about $8/hour (for a S17 game) with a 1-10 spread having your $50 bet out at TC +4.

    AvgBet ~= $11
    OriginalSD = 1.15 * 11 = $12.65

    EV(1,000 hands) = (1,000 * 11) * (.015) = $165
    SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000) * 12.65 = $400... 2SD = $800... 3SD = $1200 ...worst you could be is $165 - $1200 = -$1,035

    EV(5,000 hands) = (5,000 * 11) * (.015) = $825
    SD(5,000 hands) = Sqrt(5,000) * 12.65 = $895... 2SD = $1789... 3SD = $2685 ...worst you could be is $825 - $2685 = -$1860

    EV(10,000 hands) = (10,000 * 11) * (.015) = $1650
    SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(10,000) * 12.65 = $1265... 2SD = $2530... 3SD = $3795 ...worst you could be is $1650 - $3795 = -$2145

    EV(25,000 hands) = (25,000 * 11) * (.015) = $4125
    SD(25,000 hands) = Sqrt(25,000) * 12.65 = $2000... 2SD = $4000... 3SD = $6000 ...worst you could be is $4125 - $6000 = -$1875

    EV(50,000 hands) = (50,000 * 11) * (.015) = $8250
    SD(50,000 hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 12.65 = $2828... 2SD = $5657... 3SD = $8484 ...worst you could be is $8250 - $8484 = -$234

    *AGAIN* All of these are more rough numbers and to get a very very exact precise number you'll want to get CVCX and run a SIM. But, from this you can see that your bankroll of $5,000 should be more than sufficient as the most you could be down (assuming you're playing with an average 1.5% edge, with a $5-$50 spread, max bet out at TC +4, AvgBet ~= $11) is at around 10,000 hands and approximately $2145. Don't forget these are all "worst case scenario" of -3SD from EV every point of the way as well.

    *Another Important Note*: Do you see how you're getting about $8/hour in EV? Well, now find a table with a beatable side bet (such as lucky ladies) and just from leveraging your count with the side bet and max $25 on it, you could still MORE THAN DOUBLE your EV. At the lower levels when you're building you need to attack every aspect of the game, in my opinion. Hell, with 8D and good PEN you could probably make more money just from counting the side bet than even just straight counting BJ.
    Excellent information man. Thank you for taking the time

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Romes View Post
    The sims are going to give you the most accurate RoR information you can get. You can "rough it" and get an idea with some basic math, but it's not going to be as accurate as a simulation and you seem like you want a very precise answer (which is a good thing). One thing I would definitely recommend having your max bet out by TC +4, as TC +5 is just a bit late for the games now days in my opinion. Estimations have you at about $8/hour (for a S17 game) with a 1-10 spread having your $50 bet out at TC +4.

    AvgBet ~= $11
    OriginalSD = 1.15 * 11 = $12.65

    EV(1,000 hands) = (1,000 * 11) * (.015) = $165
    SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000) * 12.65 = $400... 2SD = $800... 3SD = $1200 ...worst you could be is $165 - $1200 = -$1,035

    EV(5,000 hands) = (5,000 * 11) * (.015) = $825
    SD(5,000 hands) = Sqrt(5,000) * 12.65 = $895... 2SD = $1789... 3SD = $2685 ...worst you could be is $825 - $2685 = -$1860

    EV(10,000 hands) = (10,000 * 11) * (.015) = $1650
    SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(10,000) * 12.65 = $1265... 2SD = $2530... 3SD = $3795 ...worst you could be is $1650 - $3795 = -$2145

    EV(25,000 hands) = (25,000 * 11) * (.015) = $4125
    SD(25,000 hands) = Sqrt(25,000) * 12.65 = $2000... 2SD = $4000... 3SD = $6000 ...worst you could be is $4125 - $6000 = -$1875

    EV(50,000 hands) = (50,000 * 11) * (.015) = $8250
    SD(50,000 hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 12.65 = $2828... 2SD = $5657... 3SD = $8484 ...worst you could be is $8250 - $8484 = -$234

    *AGAIN* All of these are more rough numbers and to get a very very exact precise number you'll want to get CVCX and run a SIM. But, from this you can see that your bankroll of $5,000 should be more than sufficient as the most you could be down (assuming you're playing with an average 1.5% edge, with a $5-$50 spread, max bet out at TC +4, AvgBet ~= $11) is at around 10,000 hands and approximately $2145. Don't forget these are all "worst case scenario" of -3SD from EV every point of the way as well.

    *Another Important Note*: Do you see how you're getting about $8/hour in EV? Well, now find a table with a beatable side bet (such as lucky ladies) and just from leveraging your count with the side bet and max $25 on it, you could still MORE THAN DOUBLE your EV. At the lower levels when you're building you need to attack every aspect of the game, in my opinion. Hell, with 8D and good PEN you could probably make more money just from counting the side bet than even just straight counting BJ.
    Please see my thread on the lucky ladies side bet. Can you give me strategy how to play it?

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by bshoemaker1002 View Post
    Please see my thread on the lucky ladies side bet. Can you give me strategy how to play it?

    Sent from my LG-TP260 using Tapatalk
    The information on how to properly play the LL side bet is alllllllllllll over. I'm the type that prefers to teach a man to fish, instead of giving him a fish =).
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

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