Originally Posted by
Romes
The sims are going to give you the most accurate RoR information you can get. You can "rough it" and get an idea with some basic math, but it's not going to be as accurate as a simulation and you seem like you want a very precise answer (which is a good thing). One thing I would definitely recommend having your max bet out by TC +4, as TC +5 is just a bit late for the games now days in my opinion. Estimations have you at about $8/hour (for a S17 game) with a 1-10 spread having your $50 bet out at TC +4.
AvgBet ~= $11
OriginalSD = 1.15 * 11 = $12.65
EV(1,000 hands) = (1,000 * 11) * (.015) = $165
SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000) * 12.65 = $400... 2SD = $800... 3SD = $1200 ...worst you could be is $165 - $1200 = -$1,035
EV(5,000 hands) = (5,000 * 11) * (.015) = $825
SD(5,000 hands) = Sqrt(5,000) * 12.65 = $895... 2SD = $1789... 3SD = $2685 ...worst you could be is $825 - $2685 = -$1860
EV(10,000 hands) = (10,000 * 11) * (.015) = $1650
SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(10,000) * 12.65 = $1265... 2SD = $2530... 3SD = $3795 ...worst you could be is $1650 - $3795 = -$2145
EV(25,000 hands) = (25,000 * 11) * (.015) = $4125
SD(25,000 hands) = Sqrt(25,000) * 12.65 = $2000... 2SD = $4000... 3SD = $6000 ...worst you could be is $4125 - $6000 = -$1875
EV(50,000 hands) = (50,000 * 11) * (.015) = $8250
SD(50,000 hands) = Sqrt(50,000) * 12.65 = $2828... 2SD = $5657... 3SD = $8484 ...worst you could be is $8250 - $8484 = -$234
*AGAIN* All of these are more rough numbers and to get a very very exact precise number you'll want to get CVCX and run a SIM. But, from this you can see that your bankroll of $5,000 should be more than sufficient as the most you could be down (assuming you're playing with an average 1.5% edge, with a $5-$50 spread, max bet out at TC +4, AvgBet ~= $11) is at around 10,000 hands and approximately $2145. Don't forget these are all "worst case scenario" of -3SD from EV every point of the way as well.
*Another Important Note*: Do you see how you're getting about $8/hour in EV? Well, now find a table with a beatable side bet (such as lucky ladies) and just from leveraging your count with the side bet and max $25 on it, you could still MORE THAN DOUBLE your EV. At the lower levels when you're building you need to attack every aspect of the game, in my opinion. Hell, with 8D and good PEN you could probably make more money just from counting the side bet than even just straight counting BJ.
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