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Thread: knowledge of next card to be dealt

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    knowledge of next card to be dealt

    If you know the next card to be dealt at the beginning of a round and you sit at box 1, then you have an advantage or disadvantage according to the card's value as an initial card in your 2-card initial hand. We all know this to be about 52% for an Ace, 13% for a ten, and various negative figures for other cards. No problem as to knowing what you should do. But here is a thought experiment...
    Suppose you are playing heads-on with the dealer and you know the next card to be dealt cannot be a certain card. Example...let's say you are 100% certain that the next card will not be a 5. This particular 5 CANNOT be dealt to you as a first card but could be dealt to the dealer as a first card or second card, or to you as a second card for your initial hand...or as a hit card for you or the dealer.
    What, if any, advantage does this knowledge give you?

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quick shot at this. Looks like about 1% edge with six decks, higher with SD.
    Last edited by Norm; 10-18-2017 at 09:14 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Suppose it's a SD game. Multiply the edges for knowing all the first non-five cards in your hand by 4/51 but then multiply the 5 by 3/51 and sum.

    Shorter: A five in your hand is -19.4%. Each five is 1/13 of all the cards, so, a single five is -19.4/13 = -1.49%. Guarantee that that won't happen, and your edge increases by that amount.

    Don

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    Thanks Norm and Don...that corresponds to my own appraisal.

    Chucky baby

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    Quote Originally Posted by chucky baby View Post
    " ... various negative figures for other cards."
    I am certain that a NINE (9) as the first card
    creates positive expectation. Perhaps 1.2%.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 10-18-2017 at 02:36 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I am certain that a NINE (9) as the first card
    creates positive expectation. Perhaps 1 or 2%.
    Well, you have a right to be certain, but it isn't true. Starting player nine is -1.2%.

    Don

  7. #7
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Yes, I've seen your color charts re. first card percentages when you know you are going to get that card. Do you have charts for when you know you are NOT going to get the card?...or how can I quickly convert your charts to give me that info?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I am certain that a NINE (9) as the first card
    creates positive expectation. Perhaps 1.2%.
    The player cannot gain any advantage with steering a known 9 to either HIMSELF OR THE DEALER. -EV no matter what

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    My apology for the sign error.
    I am getting older, not wiser.

  11. #11
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chucky baby View Post
    Yes, I've seen your color charts re. first card percentages when you know you are going to get that card. Do you have charts for when you know you are NOT going to get the card?...or how can I quickly convert your charts to give me that info?
    Nope. Rather an unusual piece of info to gain. You can use the method Don used in this thread if you know the numbers. My charts don't provide a table of the exact numbers -- so you need to estimate from the scale. I had thought of supplying all the numbers in all of the charts in my book. But, it would come to hundreds of pages. Besides, the charts all have assumptions behind them. They are meant to be illustrative of concepts.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Nope. Rather an unusual piece of info to gain. You can use the method Don used in this thread if you know the numbers. My charts don't provide a table of the exact numbers -- so you need to estimate from the scale. I had thought of supplying all the numbers in all of the charts in my book. But, it would come to hundreds of pages. Besides, the charts all have assumptions behind them. They are meant to be illustrative of concepts.
    Wong, Basic Blackjack, Table 30, p. 112, has the values for receiving each rank as a first card. Divide by 13 for non-tens and 4/13 for tens, and reverse the sign for NOT getting it.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    My apology for the sign error.
    I am getting older, not wiser.
    I made a sign error the other day in a different thread... I guess I'm getting older and wider.

    Dog Hand

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