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Thread: Video poker bankroll

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    Video poker bankroll

    I have a place where if i deposit 2k they match me with 3k, then i need to coin in 450k in order to cash out

    Machine pay back 99.78%
    (8/5 As & 8s)

    How do i calculate the chance of me going broke (losing all 5k) before completing my needed 450k coin in?

    $0.50 credits vs $1 credits vs $5 credits
    May the Variance be with you.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    VP results do not follow bell shaped normal distributions very well, so blackjack type calculations are not as accurate as what's described in this article.

    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    That costs money lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    That costs money lol
    Give a man a fish vs teach a man to fish. If you're finding interesting stuff as often as you ask the questions, simple tools should pay for themselves and save you time.

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    just based off experience, the likelihood of getting down $5k playing 90k hands of $1 VP is very high.

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    Such offers exist offline? That sounds excellent.

    Your best bet might be to try to raise your balance on Aces & Eights and then consider grinding out the wagering requirement on Jacks or Better or any other game with less variance. I would play this with $25 hands. Anything less would take years and there would still be a chance to loose it all. 2k +EV for wagering 450k is great though.

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by double up View Post
    2k +EV for wagering 450k is great though.
    I'd say less than half a per cent +EV before accounting for any playing errors is marginal not great. At $25/hand, it will take a few days, EV is less than $100/hr. with perfect play (realistically closer to $50/hr. with considerable variance). Playing JOB will cut EV in half -- you are getting close to burger flipping EV with high variance.

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    Do they have games with much higher variance or incredibly low variance? Very low variance game requires high return, whereas the high variance game doesn't need a great return.

    I haven't done the math, but intuitively, I think it likely has a greater than 2% edge (not the 0.4466% edge you may think it is) playing the $5 A's n 8's. I wouldn't be surprised if the edge was actually significantly higher than that. Perhaps I'll try to sim it sometime. Granted, the value is still $2,010 (I think?). Edit 1: No, value is not $2,010.


    EDIT 2: Just did the math on this on a different game (easier math) with some VP mixed in. Of course, they probably don't allow such high limits (but if they did...), I came up with a value of $2,632 and an advantage of 15.75%. The HE on this game is monstrous compared to the 0.22% on A's n 8's.


    EDIT 3: I actually may be interested in playing this. Send me an e-mail, [email protected] (it's a dummy e-mail, folks), and I can help you find a better way to play it. EDIT: "better" than the way you're probably thinking of playing it....not "better" than the example on edit#2 (although it may certainly be possible).
    Last edited by RS; 10-22-2017 at 04:20 AM.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    RS, emailed you

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