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Thread: Range of Probability?

  1. #1


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    Range of Probability?

    I have $2500 and have to run through 1.25mill in bets before i can quit. House edge is 0.03748%

    Im expected to lose $468.50 after completing all my hands.

    How can i figure out an optimal bet amount to bet per hand in hopes of reaching a goal very close to losing $468.50?

    Obviously $1 would be optimal, but that would take way too long to complete.

    Im thinking the number is somewhere around $5-$20, but i cant figure out how to calculate such a thing.

    Can anyone help?
    May the Variance be with you.

  2. #2


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    $5 would take about 240 hours (not good)

    $20 would take about 60 hours (decent)

    But i don't want to go broke before ending .. what are the chances of going broke betting $20/hand?

    What about $10 or $15?

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    $5 would take about 240 hours (not good)

    $20 would take about 60 hours (decent)

    But i don't want to go broke before ending .. what are the chances of going broke betting $20/hand?

    What about $10 or $15?
    Are we talking about a blackjack game here.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    I have $2500 and have to run through 1.25mill in bets before i can quit. House edge is 0.03748%

    Im expected to lose $468.50 after completing all my hands.

    How can i figure out an optimal bet amount to bet per hand in hopes of reaching a goal very close to losing $468.50?

    Obviously $1 would be optimal, but that would take way too long to complete.

    Im thinking the number is somewhere around $5-$20, but i cant figure out how to calculate such a thing.

    Can anyone help?
    If the house edge is .03748% and you are betting 1,250,000 then the loss is $46,850. What is the 468.50 you are referring to?
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #5
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If the house edge is .03748% and you are betting 1,250,000 then the loss is $46,850. What is the 468.50 you are referring to?
    1,250,000 * 0.0003748 = 468.50 As originally stated by Blue Man.

    I think you forgot that 0.03748% is expressed as 0.0003748 without a percent sign.

    Now for Blue Man, what game are you playing and how did you come to this extremely small HE?

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    1,250,000 * 0.0003748 = 468.50 As originally stated by Blue Man.

    I think you forgot that 0.03748% is expressed as 0.0003748 without a percent sign.

    Now for Blue Man, what game are you playing and how did you come to this extremely small HE?
    It's a blackjack game, single deck. How can i find a good bet size? I want to do $5 bets but that would take entirely too long. $20 bets and i may be flirting with disaster, but this is just from intuition

  7. #7


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    Bet Rounds SD1 Lo SD 1 Hi SD1 Lo SD 1 Hi RoR
    $1 1,250,000 (1,752) 815 (3,036) 2,099 444%
    $5 250,000 (3,339) 2,402 (6,209) 5,272 133%
    $10 125,000 (4,527) 3,590 (8,586) 7,649 115%
    $20 62,500 (6,209) 5,272 (11,940) 11,012 107%
    $50 25,000 (9,544) 8,607 (18,620) 17,683 103%

    Assumes a $2500 bank

    Does this help?

    Really not sure what game you find and what the rules are to get that type of house edge. I must assume it is a machine....?
    Last edited by Stealth; 10-17-2017 at 07:18 AM. Reason: Add Q
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #8
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    I am assuming H17 DAS? I pulled up CVCX and stuck it at 1 round flat betting 20$ using hi-lo S16F4 and have a 3SD for 60 hours at -5,408 to 5,258$. However the EV is stated as -75$ and not -468.5 because hands per hour is set at 100, so only about 120k is cycled.

    If I set it to cycle the full amount, 1.25M, I need to set it at 625 hours at 20$/hand for 100 rounds an hour. 3SD for that is -18,082 to 16,520. It shows the EV as -781 though.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    3SD for 60 hours at -5,408 to 5,258$.
    To achieve the 1,250,000 in money bet he will have to play about 625 hours at $20 assuming 100 HPH, not 60.

    CVCX assumes he is counting????
    Last edited by Stealth; 10-17-2017 at 07:21 AM.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  10. #10
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    To achieve the 1,250,000 in money bet he will have to play about 625 hours at $20 assuming 100 HPH, not 60.
    Which is what I covered immediately after.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    Bet Rounds SD1 Lo SD 1 Hi SD1 Lo SD 1 Hi RoR
    $1 1,250,000 (1,752) 815 (3,036) 2,099 444%
    $5 250,000 (3,339) 2,402 (6,209) 5,272 133%
    $10 125,000 (4,527) 3,590 (8,586) 7,649 115%
    $20 62,500 (6,209) 5,272 (11,940) 11,012 107%
    $50 25,000 (9,544) 8,607 (18,620) 17,683 103%

    Assumes a $2500 bank

    Does this help?

    Really not sure what game you find and what the rules are to get that type of house edge. I must assume it is a machine....?
    It is a continuous shuffle machine. Stealth, ror saying 444%? Or is it 44.4%?

    And sorry, i meant to originally say the bank is 3500, not 2500. Could you run that again stealth?

  12. #12


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    An ror cant be over 100% lol

  13. #13


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    The ror isnt making sense, it should be the lowest at $1 bets and get higher the bigger the bets go..

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