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Thread: Trigger count for lucky ladies

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    Trigger count for lucky ladies

    Hello everyone. I am currently transitioning to HO2 w/ an ace side from HiLo. For an 8D game with the following pay table:

    Any 20 4-1
    Any suited 20: 10-1
    Any matched 20: 25
    QOH pair: 200-1
    QOH pair w/ dealer BJ: 1000-1

    According to Jacobson it is about a 16% edge off the top.

    Is HO2 correlated more or less than HiLo to this side bet? If there is EV to be gained, what is the trigger count? Will I be incorporating my ace side count into my trigger? Is it worth worrying about?

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    What level do you play at? If you play with reds or even light-medium green then there is really good value in side bets such as LL for you. If you play med-high green or black then there is still value, but relatively less value as most of the side bets have a max of $25. As far as the correlation, I do not know the trigger count for HO-II.
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

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    I’d like to add on to the OP’s question...

    I use zen and was wondering the same... does anyone know the trigger point for zen?


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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    HO2 is more correlated if you do not include the ASC.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Trigger point for HO2 is +7. But, I'd wait to +9 as the variance is too high at +7.
    Trigger point for original Zen (divide by full decks) is +8. But, I'd wait until +10.
    Trigger point for new Zen (divide by quarter decks) is +2.

    Keep in mind that your SCORE will increase if you use a target point higher than the EV-max target due to the high variance of the game. If you bet right at the EV-max target, you will actually have a lower SCORE than if you don't make the bet at all even though your EV would be higher with the same bets.
    Last edited by Norm; 10-16-2017 at 12:33 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Romes View Post
    What level do you play at? If you play with reds or even light-medium green then there is really good value in side bets such as LL for you. If you play med-high green or black then there is still value, but relatively less value as most of the side bets have a max of $25. As far as the correlation, I do not know the trigger count for HO-II.
    Hi Romes. I play chunky green. So I'd say there's value there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Trigger point for HO2 is +7. But, I'd wait to +9 as the variance is too high at +7.
    Trigger point for original Zen (divide by full decks) is +8. But, I'd wait until +10.
    Trigger point for new Zen (divide by quarter decks) is +2.

    Keep in mind that your SCORE will increase if you use a target point higher than the EV-max target due to the high variance of the game. If you bet right at the EV-max target, you will actually have a lower SCORE than if you don't make the bet at all even though your EV would be higher with the same bets.
    Thank you very much Norm. This brings about a question. The article I cited where Jacobson lists the trigger for this pay table and decks at +4 for HiLo . I know the trigger for HiLo is +7 for the Atlantic City paytable which is 9-1 suited, matched 20-1??, 125-1 QOH and 1000-1 for the grand prize. Just to be completely clear, is the trigger for LL with HO2 w/o incorporating ASC +7 for BOTH pay tables or just for the Atlantic city version? If they are different, what would the trigger for each one individually be?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    The targets I gave were for the pay table you provided, although the difference would be minor. Do NOT include the ASC with either game. Just be warned that betting at the published target points can actually harm your bankroll. Read the four pages starting at: https://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage216.htm
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    The targets I gave were for the pay table you provided, although the difference would be minor. Do NOT include the ASC with either game. Just be warned that betting at the published target points can actually harm your bankroll. Read the four pages starting at: https://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage216.htm
    Great! Thank you!

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    You need deep pen in a shoe game for this bet-not so much in DD. All my success with LL has been in heads up DD. Luckily, i wasn't limited to $25 maxes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    You need deep pen in a shoe game for this bet-not so much in DD. All my success with LL has been in heads up DD. Luckily, i wasn't limited to $25 maxes.
    WOW. I have never heard of a LL with a limit above 25. I hit the QOH pair in a shoe game for several thousand. Pretty awesome.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    You need deep pen in a shoe game for this bet-not so much in DD. All my success with LL has been in heads up DD. Luckily, i wasn't limited to $25 maxes.
    While deep penetration will yield higher EV in either situation, I don't think you need "more" penetration out of a shoe game. Shoe games are actually better for the Lucky Lady side bet, as opposed to shorter hand games such as DD. The Trigger Count drops considerably when counting an 8D shoe, as opposed to a DD game.

    Best case scenario for side bets: 8 Decks, deep penetration, and a minimum more than $25.
    Don't think you have a winning game; know you have a winning game.

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    The Trigger Count drops considerably when counting an 8D shoe, as opposed to a DD game.
    Only if the casino uses the double deck pay table. A double deck game is better for lucky ladies because higher counts are much more common with fewer decks.

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