Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 21 to 27 of 27

Thread: Day 1 - FIRST TIME BJ PLAY at casino after weeks of practicing CVBJ Verite!!!

  1. #21


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thank you Ustonzen! Always good to hear compliments kk I know playing at a casino with zero heat is very unusual - I will try to make the best out of it

  2. #22


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    Thank you Ustonzen! Always good to hear compliments kk I know playing at a casino with zero heat is very unusual - I will try to make the best out of it
    In the words of a famous wise man, "There's no heat until there's heat..."

  3. #23


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Yeah but thats usually reserved for sharp EITS that dont rely on pit to spot counters.
    This is Korea - has homeboy ever even seen anyone backed off at the place he plays ? Hes got a 500 dollar bankroll and spreads 1 to 2 90% of the time. He could be wearing a tshirt that says im counting in korean and i think he would still be as frosty as a penguin eating a snow cone out of an eskimos crotch

  4. #24


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Meditate while chanting this mantra ...


    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."
    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."
    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."
    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."


  5. #25
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    13,765


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    That's irrational. If your optimal bet at a given advantage is $50, why would you bet $75 at this advantage just because they start cutting more decks out?
    I could explain it but you are at a high enough level I am sure you would't benefit from an explanation.

    All your explanations so far don't include how the TC average is formulated. That is an important consideration in this discussion.

    The TC average is the average of all deck compositions whose RC becomes that TC given the number of unseen cards. Each TC will draw a different percentage of it's sampling, that it derives the average from, from various levels of penetration. So a low magnitude TC will have a higher percentage of data from shallow pen than a high magnitude TC. A high magnitude TC will have very little deck compositions after relatively few cards have been seen but at deep pen there are a lot more data points in the average. You can just look at the TC averages for various levels of pen to see the effect:

    Hilo full, S17, DAS LS, 1-12 spread, play-all
    Cards Cut Off: TC 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6
    130: -0.31%, +0.49%, +1.02%, +1.64%, +2.28%, +2.92%, +3.56%
    104: -0.30%, +0.49%, +1.04%, +1.66%, +2.31%, +2.94%, +3.66%
    78: -0.29%, +0.50%, +1.06%, +1.69%, +2.31%, +2.98%, +3.64%
    52: -0.28%, +0.52%, +1.08%, +1.71%, +2.36%, +3.00%, +3.68%
    26: -0.27%, +0.53%, +1.13%, +1.75%, +2.42%, +3.10%, +3.72%

    Each time you cut 26 more cards off, the data set that is averaged for the TC advantage estimate listed has the data from that 26 card stretch of the shoe added to the previously averaged data set. Generally this addition increases the advantage estimate. This indicates a slightly higher advantage at the same TC after seeing more cards. You could attribute this to floating advantage. We know two things are occurring as you see more cards. First the removal of 1 card becomes more significant. Second the frequency of high magnitude TC's increase as you see more cards. The latter creates a data bias for some TC and deep pen. The high magnitude TC's are rarely reached when there are a large number of unseen cards (early in a shoe) so after seeing most of the cards the data set that makes up the TC average will accumulate most of its data points used to determine the TC average advantage.
    Last edited by Three; 10-18-2017 at 09:54 AM.

  6. #26
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    13,765


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    1. the 'effect' of positive TC (the probability of getting tens) is actually same throughout at any point of the shoe?? For example, TC+2 at beginning of the shoe is the same as TC+2 at deeper depth (as we get closer to the cut card) through out the same shoe? It is just due to variance that I get the feeling TC gets more accurate at deeper depth?
    At higher magnitude TC and a game with good pen there is an effect on advantage of the TC. The effect is minimal at lower magnitude TC's.

    Yes, TC +2 is probably best looked at as the same.

    You feel more accurate deep in the shoe because certainty has gone up a hair. Gains in the effect of removing one card become slightly more significant. You are thinking of it as a bag of marbles with the same ratio of marbles having the same chances at BJ. If BJ only drew 1 marble or card to determine the outcome this would be right. But you make a bet and a number of cards are removed to deal the initial card. Then hand(s) are played possibly removing more cards before the dealer plays his hand. As you can see the proportional composition of the marbles can change before your bet is determined. It will most often change more with fewer the bag starts with fewer marbles when you start removing them. The effect of this is increased certainty at deeper pen when you have an advantage. Consider doubling 11v5. You want a T or a dealer bust. If you don't get a T the dealer has a larger opportunity to draw a T if the removal of the non-T was a higher percentage of the remains non-T's. Or you and the dealer are equally likely to get a BJ before the cards are dealt. But at deep pen if you get a BJ, the dealer is far less likely to also get a BJ at the same TC at deeper pen because you removed 2 of the cards he needs and that is a much higher percentage of those cards than if there are 3 times as many faces and aces left.

    So basically there is some degree of increased certainty at deeper pen but the effect is most pronounced at higher magnitude TC's. At low magnitude TC's it is not worth considering. All that said the TC averages take everything into account to formulate your best attack. You may be worse off by a small degree early than later but your bet recommendations aren't set up to do anything about it. By trying to adjust your approach the sim results become meaningless for what you should expect. Either sim exactly what you are going to do or follow what the sim does. Don't try to outsmart the sim.
    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    2. the reason high spread (1-5) got me in the beginning is due to my low bankroll, right? If I kept continue the same spread, it would have balanced out at some point later, am I correct?
    Yes, if you could play forever. The longer you play the more validity to your statement. The way things "even out" is not having things happen to erase you previous results. It is to get enough play that the denominator used to get your average results increases enough to make the previous results less and less significant until they are insignificant. That is how the long run works. You could have the first 100 coin flips be the same but after 1,000,000 tosses the effect of that unreal run will fade away.

  7. #27


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    All that said the TC averages take everything into account to formulate your best attack. You may be worse off by a small degree early than later but your bet recommendations aren't set up to do anything about
    Thank you - you actually understood my concern and gave me the best answer...
    So yeah, I guess I was right about TC being more accurate at deeper depth, YET I guess I cannot do anything about it and still shouldn't change my betting strategy...

    Thanks Three

Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123

Similar Threads

  1. CVBJ: Is it possible to set up heads-up play ?
    By greg16394 in forum Software
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-22-2016, 04:22 AM
  2. Replies: 16
    Last Post: 12-07-2013, 12:18 PM
  3. How to equate your performance and accuracy in Casino Verite to real play?
    By seriousplayer in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 07-12-2012, 12:30 AM
  4. MJ: CVBJ Run time errors
    By MJ in forum Computing for Counters
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-20-2007, 06:52 PM
  5. sfgiants: Setu Verite to play only Soft Hands
    By sfgiants in forum Software & Simulations
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-29-2004, 11:15 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.