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Thread: Day 1 - FIRST TIME BJ PLAY at casino after weeks of practicing CVBJ Verite!!!

  1. #14


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    So to narrow down my concern,

    1. the 'effect' of positive TC (the probability of getting tens) is actually same throughout at any point of the shoe?? For example, TC+2 at beginning of the shoe is the same as TC+2 at deeper depth (as we get closer to the cut card) through out the same shoe? It is just due to variance that I get the feeling TC gets more accurate at deeper depth?

    2. the reason high spread (1-5) got me in the beginning is due to my low bankroll, right? If I kept continue the same spread, it would have balanced out at some point later, am I correct?
    Last edited by Planisphere; 10-12-2017 at 11:59 AM.

  2. #15


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    Let me be the first to say good job. You got your cherry popped, and variance was way on your side. Here's the coolest thing; you made $30 per hour. Having said all that, make sure you understand bankroll vs optimum bet size and develop a clear understanding of RoR.

  3. #16


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    1. the 'effect' of positive TC (the probability of getting tens) is actually same throughout at any point of the shoe?? For example, TC+2 at beginning of the shoe is the same as TC+2 at deeper depth (as we get closer to the cut card) through out the same shoe?


    Yes.

    It is just due to variance that I get the feeling TC gets more accurate at deeper depth?


    Exactly. You ran good in some deeper TC 2 / TC 3 spots and ran poorly in some shallower TC 2 / TC 3 spots and have thus arrived at an erroneous conclusion. Experience can be an awfully poor teacher when it comes to gambling; you are better off considering blackjack more of an a priori science.
    2. the reason high spread (1-5) got me in the beginning is due to my low bankroll, right? If I kept continue the same spread, it would have balanced out at some point later, am I correct?
    That's not exactly how it works. With gambling the variance is yours to keep. There is no tendency to 'balance out', simply a long term expectation and short term fluctuations. I suppose in a sense, assuming you are playing with an advantage, it is likely that the short term downswing would have eventually "balanced out" as you say as of course a winning player does have a long term expectation of profit.

    It is important to understand that it is not uncommon for winning players to lose money in blackjack. Downswings occur when counting cards. There is not much you can do about it, aside from ensure that you are making good decisions and not over betting your bankroll.
    Last edited by Meistro123; 10-12-2017 at 12:39 PM.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Experience can be an awfully poor teacher when it comes to gambling; you are better off considering blackjack more of an a priori science.
    So I guess I had known all things by theory, but was just confused with the fluctuations with today's first time experience I guess it is important to stick to the theories despite short-term variances.

    Thank you Meistro!!

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by SpikeBJ View Post
    Let me be the first to say good job. You got your cherry popped, and variance was way on your side. Here's the coolest thing; you made $30 per hour. Having said all that, make sure you understand bankroll vs optimum bet size and develop a clear understanding of RoR.
    Thank you!! I was impressed with my first time performance today hehe yeah still alot to learn yet..

  6. #19


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    For your next trip you may want to try to find an off peak time when you can get more heads up or play with just one other player. Of course you also want to play when you are 'fresh' and do not want to play when you are tired. A good time to play would be a couple hours after you woke up, whereas a bad time to play would be 14 or 15 hours after you woke up that day, when you would normally be going to bed.

  7. #20


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    Is there anything more touching than the universality of human stupidity..

    Its nice to know you cant even go to freaking korea without hearing about the flow..but if what you said is true about zero heat then dont change your game for supertitious plops - a 500 dollar bank on a wongless 8 deck is all the challenge youre going to need right now - dont give away any of your advantage to the idiot whims of clueless ex pats.
    The no heat thing is your biggest advantage here - and there are people here who would bankrupt a casino in the absence of heat (there is precedent) so use it to your fullest advantage, youre there to get the money, not please a bunch of idiot strangers with your play.
    Good job on doing your research and practicing first - your initial win isnt ALL variance

  8. #21


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    Thank you Ustonzen! Always good to hear compliments kk I know playing at a casino with zero heat is very unusual - I will try to make the best out of it

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    Thank you Ustonzen! Always good to hear compliments kk I know playing at a casino with zero heat is very unusual - I will try to make the best out of it
    In the words of a famous wise man, "There's no heat until there's heat..."

  10. #23


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    Yeah but thats usually reserved for sharp EITS that dont rely on pit to spot counters.
    This is Korea - has homeboy ever even seen anyone backed off at the place he plays ? Hes got a 500 dollar bankroll and spreads 1 to 2 90% of the time. He could be wearing a tshirt that says im counting in korean and i think he would still be as frosty as a penguin eating a snow cone out of an eskimos crotch

  11. #24
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    Meditate while chanting this mantra ...


    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."
    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."
    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."
    "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin." "Risk of Ruin."


  12. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    That's irrational. If your optimal bet at a given advantage is $50, why would you bet $75 at this advantage just because they start cutting more decks out?
    I could explain it but you are at a high enough level I am sure you would't benefit from an explanation.

    All your explanations so far don't include how the TC average is formulated. That is an important consideration in this discussion.

    The TC average is the average of all deck compositions whose RC becomes that TC given the number of unseen cards. Each TC will draw a different percentage of it's sampling, that it derives the average from, from various levels of penetration. So a low magnitude TC will have a higher percentage of data from shallow pen than a high magnitude TC. A high magnitude TC will have very little deck compositions after relatively few cards have been seen but at deep pen there are a lot more data points in the average. You can just look at the TC averages for various levels of pen to see the effect:

    Hilo full, S17, DAS LS, 1-12 spread, play-all
    Cards Cut Off: TC 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6
    130: -0.31%, +0.49%, +1.02%, +1.64%, +2.28%, +2.92%, +3.56%
    104: -0.30%, +0.49%, +1.04%, +1.66%, +2.31%, +2.94%, +3.66%
    78: -0.29%, +0.50%, +1.06%, +1.69%, +2.31%, +2.98%, +3.64%
    52: -0.28%, +0.52%, +1.08%, +1.71%, +2.36%, +3.00%, +3.68%
    26: -0.27%, +0.53%, +1.13%, +1.75%, +2.42%, +3.10%, +3.72%

    Each time you cut 26 more cards off, the data set that is averaged for the TC advantage estimate listed has the data from that 26 card stretch of the shoe added to the previously averaged data set. Generally this addition increases the advantage estimate. This indicates a slightly higher advantage at the same TC after seeing more cards. You could attribute this to floating advantage. We know two things are occurring as you see more cards. First the removal of 1 card becomes more significant. Second the frequency of high magnitude TC's increase as you see more cards. The latter creates a data bias for some TC and deep pen. The high magnitude TC's are rarely reached when there are a large number of unseen cards (early in a shoe) so after seeing most of the cards the data set that makes up the TC average will accumulate most of its data points used to determine the TC average advantage.
    Last edited by Three; 10-18-2017 at 09:54 AM.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    1. the 'effect' of positive TC (the probability of getting tens) is actually same throughout at any point of the shoe?? For example, TC+2 at beginning of the shoe is the same as TC+2 at deeper depth (as we get closer to the cut card) through out the same shoe? It is just due to variance that I get the feeling TC gets more accurate at deeper depth?
    At higher magnitude TC and a game with good pen there is an effect on advantage of the TC. The effect is minimal at lower magnitude TC's.

    Yes, TC +2 is probably best looked at as the same.

    You feel more accurate deep in the shoe because certainty has gone up a hair. Gains in the effect of removing one card become slightly more significant. You are thinking of it as a bag of marbles with the same ratio of marbles having the same chances at BJ. If BJ only drew 1 marble or card to determine the outcome this would be right. But you make a bet and a number of cards are removed to deal the initial card. Then hand(s) are played possibly removing more cards before the dealer plays his hand. As you can see the proportional composition of the marbles can change before your bet is determined. It will most often change more with fewer the bag starts with fewer marbles when you start removing them. The effect of this is increased certainty at deeper pen when you have an advantage. Consider doubling 11v5. You want a T or a dealer bust. If you don't get a T the dealer has a larger opportunity to draw a T if the removal of the non-T was a higher percentage of the remains non-T's. Or you and the dealer are equally likely to get a BJ before the cards are dealt. But at deep pen if you get a BJ, the dealer is far less likely to also get a BJ at the same TC at deeper pen because you removed 2 of the cards he needs and that is a much higher percentage of those cards than if there are 3 times as many faces and aces left.

    So basically there is some degree of increased certainty at deeper pen but the effect is most pronounced at higher magnitude TC's. At low magnitude TC's it is not worth considering. All that said the TC averages take everything into account to formulate your best attack. You may be worse off by a small degree early than later but your bet recommendations aren't set up to do anything about it. By trying to adjust your approach the sim results become meaningless for what you should expect. Either sim exactly what you are going to do or follow what the sim does. Don't try to outsmart the sim.
    Quote Originally Posted by Planisphere View Post
    2. the reason high spread (1-5) got me in the beginning is due to my low bankroll, right? If I kept continue the same spread, it would have balanced out at some point later, am I correct?
    Yes, if you could play forever. The longer you play the more validity to your statement. The way things "even out" is not having things happen to erase you previous results. It is to get enough play that the denominator used to get your average results increases enough to make the previous results less and less significant until they are insignificant. That is how the long run works. You could have the first 100 coin flips be the same but after 1,000,000 tosses the effect of that unreal run will fade away.

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