# Thread: Day 1 - FIRST TIME BJ PLAY at casino after weeks of practicing CVBJ Verite!!!

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Originally Posted by Meistro123
That's irrational. If your optimal bet at a given advantage is \$50, why would you bet \$75 at this advantage just because they start cutting more decks out? You shouldn't be trying to solve for a given hourly rate but instead basing your bets on your advantage adjusted for how cautious you would like to be.
People are talking at cross-purposes. I think for the purpose of this discussion, "spreading more aggressively" means employing a larger spread from low to high unit. It doesn't mean betting more than you should at any given TC level.

Don

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Originally Posted by DSchles
People are talking at cross-purposes. I think for the purpose of this discussion, "spreading more aggressively" means employing a larger spread from low to high unit. It doesn't mean betting more than you should at any given TC level.

Don
Agree with this interpretation.

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Ah, clearly I misunderstood.

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So to narrow down my concern,

1. the 'effect' of positive TC (the probability of getting tens) is actually same throughout at any point of the shoe?? For example, TC+2 at beginning of the shoe is the same as TC+2 at deeper depth (as we get closer to the cut card) through out the same shoe? It is just due to variance that I get the feeling TC gets more accurate at deeper depth?

2. the reason high spread (1-5) got me in the beginning is due to my low bankroll, right? If I kept continue the same spread, it would have balanced out at some point later, am I correct?

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Let me be the first to say good job. You got your cherry popped, and variance was way on your side. Here's the coolest thing; you made \$30 per hour. Having said all that, make sure you understand bankroll vs optimum bet size and develop a clear understanding of RoR.

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1. the 'effect' of positive TC (the probability of getting tens) is actually same throughout at any point of the shoe?? For example, TC+2 at beginning of the shoe is the same as TC+2 at deeper depth (as we get closer to the cut card) through out the same shoe?

Yes.

It is just due to variance that I get the feeling TC gets more accurate at deeper depth?

Exactly. You ran good in some deeper TC 2 / TC 3 spots and ran poorly in some shallower TC 2 / TC 3 spots and have thus arrived at an erroneous conclusion. Experience can be an awfully poor teacher when it comes to gambling; you are better off considering blackjack more of an a priori science.
2. the reason high spread (1-5) got me in the beginning is due to my low bankroll, right? If I kept continue the same spread, it would have balanced out at some point later, am I correct?
That's not exactly how it works. With gambling the variance is yours to keep. There is no tendency to 'balance out', simply a long term expectation and short term fluctuations. I suppose in a sense, assuming you are playing with an advantage, it is likely that the short term downswing would have eventually "balanced out" as you say as of course a winning player does have a long term expectation of profit.

It is important to understand that it is not uncommon for winning players to lose money in blackjack. Downswings occur when counting cards. There is not much you can do about it, aside from ensure that you are making good decisions and not over betting your bankroll.

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Originally Posted by Meistro123
Experience can be an awfully poor teacher when it comes to gambling; you are better off considering blackjack more of an a priori science.
So I guess I had known all things by theory, but was just confused with the fluctuations with today's first time experience I guess it is important to stick to the theories despite short-term variances.

Thank you Meistro!!

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Originally Posted by SpikeBJ
Let me be the first to say good job. You got your cherry popped, and variance was way on your side. Here's the coolest thing; you made \$30 per hour. Having said all that, make sure you understand bankroll vs optimum bet size and develop a clear understanding of RoR.
Thank you!! I was impressed with my first time performance today hehe yeah still alot to learn yet..

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For your next trip you may want to try to find an off peak time when you can get more heads up or play with just one other player. Of course you also want to play when you are 'fresh' and do not want to play when you are tired. A good time to play would be a couple hours after you woke up, whereas a bad time to play would be 14 or 15 hours after you woke up that day, when you would normally be going to bed.

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Is there anything more touching than the universality of human stupidity..

Its nice to know you cant even go to freaking korea without hearing about the flow..but if what you said is true about zero heat then dont change your game for supertitious plops - a 500 dollar bank on a wongless 8 deck is all the challenge youre going to need right now - dont give away any of your advantage to the idiot whims of clueless ex pats.
The no heat thing is your biggest advantage here - and there are people here who would bankrupt a casino in the absence of heat (there is precedent) so use it to your fullest advantage, youre there to get the money, not please a bunch of idiot strangers with your play.
Good job on doing your research and practicing first - your initial win isnt ALL variance

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