See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 27

Thread: Good strategy?

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Good strategy?

    Local casino only has H17 DAS no surrender games. My current plan is a 1-10 spread with $5 units using Hilo, wong in at TC+4 when <50% of the shoe has been dealt and at TC+2 if >50% has been dealt and wong out at TC-1. Betting $5 at TC -1 through +1, $10 at +2, $25 at +3, and $50 at +4 and up, is this a good winning strategy?

  2. #2
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No


    Wonging
    In at Hi-Lo +4 means that you will be playing less than 10 hands an hour.

    At Hi-Lo +4 (in this game) presuming 6 decks, you'll
    have about a 1.4% advantage.

    I estimate that your win will be approximately $6 per hour. Less than minimum wage
    !

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thanks for your reply, I'm not trying to make millions here just have a good time if I can make 6 bucks an hour that's fine with me, the way I look at is is people will pay 50 bucks to go to an amusement park for a few hours if I can make $1 and have a night of fun it's worth it, also my reasoning for +4 is I figure if I jump in at +2 with only one deck gone then there is still a likelyhood of the count riseing and then I'm losing hands until the count stabilizes or starts to drop back down but with over half the shoe gone a TC of 2 seems reasonable because the likelihood of it going up with 3 decks left are minimum and I'd most likely be jumping in when the count is returning to 0 aka face cards comeing out, is this logic flawed? Thanks again

  4. #4


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Yes this logic is flawed. Wong in at +2 True and don’t hold yourself back from making 6 figures annually if you really have what it takes

  5. #5
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by MGR12 View Post
    "is this logic flawed?"
    To a degree, yes it is flawed because a True Count is in reality

    just your 'count' normalized to one deck. That is true with one

    deck remaining or 5 decks remaining. Many authors simply called

    the True Count "Count Per Deck" It does not matter how many decks

    remain, as you normalized the count by computing a "True Count."

    You are obviously young, reasonably smart, energetic and optimistic.

    You do not have plantar fasciitis and you imagine casinos are "fun"

    places to walk about and stare at blackjack tables with open seats.

    You will find very few situations waiting for a T.C. of +4. You seem

    to have grasped an important point, to wit, there is always a tendency

    that is called 'regression to the mean.' That means that if the True

    Count is positive OR negative then the mathematical tendency will

    be for a return to a True Count of ZERO.

    If you think that there is "fun" involved, you will eventually come to the

    realization that blackjack is a time-consuming repetitious boring game.

    While you will have an overall advantage that, "over the long haul", will

    net you a theoretical (expected) net win of more than 1% on your money,

    it is only true over many many many many hands played, not a few hundred

    and not a few thousand.

  6. #6
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by vagabond View Post
    "don’t hold yourself back from making 6 figures annually if you really have what it takes."
    Don't pump this kid up with nonsense about earning 6 figures.
    He has already commented that he is not in it for the money.
    He will be lucky to pay for a tank-full of gasoline in a session.

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Wong in quicker - wang out when possible.

    There's more than just money to be had at a casino

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Thanks for your quick replies, what you said makes sense TC is standardization of the running count, appreciate it guys I'll lower my wong in at +2 and hopefully grab quite a few more hands

  9. #9
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    South West
    Posts
    957


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Wong in sooner. +4 is so rare. You'd be leaving a lot of advantage rounds on the table. +2 is more reasonable.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  10. #10
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No


    Fenix +1

    The conundrum is this:

    Waiting for +4 will mean VERY few hands played

    BUT a game with poor rules has only a razor-thin

    advantage at Hi-Lo TC +2 with increased variance

    as well as a markedly increased chance of "outing

    yourself"

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    "You seem to have grasped an important point, to wit, there is always a tendency that is called 'regression to the mean.' That means that if the True
    Count is positive OR negative then the mathematical tendency will be for a return to a True Count of ZERO."

    Wow! Highly uncharacteristic and fundamentally wrong response on your part. There is no tendency whatsoever for the TRUE count to regress to anything! Rather, the tendency is for it to remain exactly where it is. It is the RUNNING count that has a tendency to return to zero as the pack is depleted.

    Don

  12. #12
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    "It is the RUNNING count that has a tendency to return to zero as the pack is depleted."
    And how does this fail to translate into a regressing True Count?

  13. #13
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Because both the numerator and denominator change as you move through the shoe.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. The KNOCK OUT System-RAD Strategy (KOBS-K-O Basic Strategy)
    By ferenc11 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 23
    Last Post: 01-30-2021, 05:10 PM
  2. Replies: 8
    Last Post: 06-21-2015, 06:04 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.