Currency promotion EV?

[Red Green]

I will soon have the chance to cross the Canadian-USA border (heading south) and go to a Reserve Casino. They have a Canadian dollar at par promotion. Get a certain number of points and you can exchange Cdn dollars for Greenbacks at par up to a max of $600 per day.

Here are some of the relevant factors:

1. I'm a new player with a good job and this is a fun trip. While I get no joy from losing money, let's categorize this as $1000 training bankroll and expendable under a 35% RoR in the guise of meeting up with some old friends.
2. Since this Casino is "out of the way" and caters to buses of the elderly (FYI - not me - older, but not elderly! Hmmm...maybe I should borrow a walker and go deaf as cover?), I am going to assume there are probably $10 tables (need to confirm, obviously, but you guys are awesome at these theoretical questions!)
3. Nor do I know how points are calculated yet. Not sure if there are typical systems in use so i may have to get more info to garner valid opinions. But assuming there is nothing else to do do but play, hours should be available.
4. Bearing in mind the counting errors I'll certainly make (I'm confident my BS is accurate and I guess flat bet when I lose count) with a narrow spread of say 1 - 5 against a northern border states HE of about .6 it seems to me that this is a positive EV play? Notwithstanding freezing your ass off in the middle of nowhere...
5. This would require getting a player card (boo!) but (a) I haven't been to this place in 25 years, (b) I won't be back for another 25 years (if I last that long), (c) my play will likely be unremarkable and low level so not too worried. If - in the unlikely event I am backed off -- I'll brush up on 3 card poker and have a few beers.

What do you think? The bank rate is about $1.30 Cdn to buy $1USD. All else being equal (it isn't...but for argument's sake) is that a $30 win rate off the hop? Maybe $31.50 with the BJ?

Thanks

RG

[Freightman]

How quickly you can change CAD to USA at par is the question. In other words, are there rules surrounding how fast you can convert. At today's rate, I think 1.26, you can flat bet this baby, and you're expenses are covered. You did say $600 per day. AND, maybe you can get your room comped?

Play politely, no huge spreads and have fun. You won't get backed iff as long as you're polite, you won't need to be aggressive.

[Red Green]

Good question. I don’t know. I’ll have to make an anonymous call and get the details. May well be this available in the region and could be more desirable terms within 100 kms (that’s another exchange issue... but we get miles at a fixed exchange rate!)

And as to polite...I did say I’m Canadian! Thanks, Freightman.


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[Ustonzen]

And as to polite...I did say I’m Canadian! Thanks, Freightman.


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Does that mean the dealer gets a hand jibber ....
Is this east or west?

[Midwest Player]

........a northern border states HE of about .6 it seems to me that this is a positive EV play? Notwithstanding freezing your ass off in the middle of nowhere...
RG

Come on down (or maybe come on up) to the Kewadin Casino in Sault St Marie. Their 6 deck game has 0.25% house edge.

Freezing your ass off goes with the territory.

[Freightman]

And as to polite...I did say I’m Canadian! Thanks, Freightman.


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EH!

[RS]

If I understand this correctly....

You take $600 worth of Monopoly money and change it for $600 in Freedom Dollars. If you could go straight to the bank and exchange it back into Monopoly money, you'd end up with $780 in Monopoly money, profiting $180. Unfortunately you can't do the immediate switch-a-roo and gotta play.

So you need to figure out how much action would the maximum necessary to break even. If they require more action, it's a losing play, if more, then it's +EV. To side on the err of caution, or however you say it, you need to determine what number is 0.6% of $180. That number is $30,000 in action.

So based on that alone, I can't imagine a casino would require $30k in action or more for this type of promotion, especially what I assume to be a small Northern/Midwestern casino. At 100 HPH (it's likely lower than that), that'd be 3 hours of flat betting $100.

Unless this promotion is completely jacked, it's nowhere near that much ($100 action for 3 hours or its equivalent). My guess is they'd want to see 4 hours of $15 average bet or its equivalent (2 hours of $30 or 1 hour of $60), at the most. I'd think the requirement would more likely be 2 hours at $10 or $15, though. Of course, this is all conjecture on my part and you should certainly call ahead and ask, unless you plan on playing there regardless.


Add in the fact you can count which will either give you a small advantage or shave off a bit from the HE, this certainly sounds like something worthwhile. Plus you'll also likely get free food, comp points, or other kinds of shenanigans. Although that in it of itself isn't a good reason (IMO) to play something, small freebies are always nice.



Meanwhile, I'm here in LV and freezing my ass off when it's like 60-70 during the day and ~40 at night. I'm just glad I'm not out in Minnesota or one of those freezing areas. Burrr.


Edit: If you're going to be doing this multiple days and there isn't a bank around that'll trade your money, you'll have to bring more CAD money, since you'll need $600 in CAD each day.

[Freightman]

Does that mean the dealer gets a hand jibber ....
Is this east or west?

Lends new meaning to the phrase
"No thanks, I gave at the office"

My presumption is that the hole in your pocket is designed that way, so that you have something to play with while playing blackjack. Also, to aid you in your education of ace side counting utilizing the new Ball method.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The bank rate is about $1.30 Cdn to buy
$1USD ... is that a $30 win rate ... ?

In Reno, NV they used to exchange Canadian Dollars for US dollars
at par (for a 25% benefit) in the 80's of the twentieth century.

As you are going to play a marginal game with a very light spread
it will not be far off estimating your (dis) advantage at zero. As such,
your e.v will be (nearly) 30% IF and only if you restrict your play so
that you are only playing with the amount you gained via the exchange.

IF you play beyond that point your e.v. will drop with every hand you play.

e.g. You bring $1,000 and convert to $1,300. You set aside your initial
$1,000 and play with the $300. You QUIT and leave as soon as you have
churned $300 in play. At $10 per hand - that is about a half hour. Perhaps
you can convert and walk out the door, as that is the overall best A.P. move
that you can make.

If you say that the Yankee Cash is all that you have on you, they
should do an immediate conversion upon arrival.

[Freightman]

Flash
Nothing was sad about rules, only suggestions that spread should be limited. Further, OP has I dicated thT he is Canadian - ergo, he is polite. Must be true, as polite describes me to a tee.

Why, in this thread alone, did u note how polite I was to Ustonzen. If he wants a hand jibber at the table, he should also be polite when asking his Tablemate for assistance in that regard. I mean that in the nicest possible way

[Red Green]

[editorial comments redacted as I’m too new to jump into the fray but have duly noted most posts go off the rails PDQ...(further evidence of the polite Canadian style...)]

Ustonzen - um...not an AP play I’ve ever heard about, but you do you!

Zen - I’ve delegated the investigation to find out the deal. I suspect I’ll need to bring some USD to start. Once sufficient points accumulated make the cash deal to the max daily available and hopefully pocket the money and play the original cash. The cash deal is really a side play that nudges the mean under the curve to the left when net proceeds are considered I think. It’s a good point not to exceed the promo - thanks for making it.


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[Red Green]

I think the “marginal play” comment was about my skills, not the HE...no offence taken. I’m new, learning and will make errors.


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