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Thread: How Much Would You Bet in This Situation

  1. #14


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    You are also discounting a possible natural draw from the second card.


    Irrelevant. A 1.5 x payout is not the sort of variance we are concerned with. The reason why you adjust for variance is because of the prospect of losing multiple bets on a single hand, after splitting and doubling. That won't happen when you have a ten, because you won't split or double. You especially won't split after making an 8% of your bankroll wager.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    I was at the same table. Now I know who you are. Most of the time, the pit boss will burn that card. You should have bet table max.
    What position at the table were you playing?

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    What position at the table were you playing?
    Reminds me of a table I played for about 5 minutes.

    Was the guy next to me a counter? Hmmm, let's see. Half shoe 3/6, about 15k in chips in front of him, playing table min i of $25 off the top.

  4. #17


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    Okay, it seems like everybody knew the answer except me. I did know if the first card is an Ace you bet the farm, but wasn't sure about a ten. Is there a chart or table somewhere that shows the value of a known first card.

  5. #18
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    https://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingextra4.htm

    Every time this happens I've never been at first base. Rarr.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Irrelevant. A 1.5 x payout is not the sort of variance we are concerned with. The reason why you adjust for variance is because of the prospect of losing multiple bets on a single hand, after splitting and doubling. That won't happen when you have a ten, because you won't split or double. You especially won't split after making an 8% of your bankroll wager.
    [/COLOR]
    Well, it certainly isn't true that you aren't concerned with the extra variance from a natural. For example, it is well known that, for a first card Ace, the edge is 52%, but that's far from the correct optimal wager, which is more like about 40%, because of the highly increased probability of a natural.

    For the ten, this may well be offset by no doubling and splitting opportunities. I'm not aware of any printed discussion of the variance of a hand once the first card is known. Would be interested to see it.

    Don

  7. #20


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    I would say it depends on the store, is this a store you dont care about burning yourself at? If not then blast away as much as you can. If you are playing at a store you frequent on a regular basis or have a known player profile to the pit you might not want to make such a huge bet. Consider a 1.5 or 2x your normal max bet. Still get some extra EV but not gather all the attention.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Irrelevant. A 1.5 x payout is not the sort of variance we are concerned with. The reason why you adjust for variance is because of the prospect of losing multiple bets on a single hand, after splitting and doubling. That won't happen when you have a ten, because you won't split or double. You especially won't split after making an 8% of your bankroll wager.
    And why would I not split given the proper index and a sufficient tolerance for the risk?
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  9. #22
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    And why would I not split given the proper index and a sufficient tolerance for the risk?
    The short answer is because it tends to generate heat.

  10. #23


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    If you're planning on a mid-size bet, the TC is likely in the 1-3 range (HILO, depending on how aggressive a ramp you have) which is not sufficient to split. Not to mention, the RC will be going down by 1. Even if the upcard is a 5 or 6, then you'd need lots of little cards to come out to the other players, a ten for yourself, and you don't have the benefit of others drawing multiple cards before you since you're in seat #1. You're already less than ~5% chance of getting a ten + dealer 5-6 dealer up card....from there, how probable is it enough little cards come out to justify splitting a 20? Overall, you're likely well under a 1% chance to have to worry about splitting. This all assumes you'd even split, which AFAIK, most players don't do.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  11. #24


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    And why would I not split given the proper index and a sufficient tolerance for the risk?

    Because you have too much of your bankroll on the line. You bet 8% of your bankroll. You're going to split, and resplit, and resplit, and end up with 32% of your bankroll riding on the outcome of one hand? No thanks. Anyway, assuming you use the +7 index for splitting tens the chances of actually having a split in this scenario are pretty remote. And of course splitting TT v 6 for example at TC +5 with 8% of your bankroll on the line would especially foolish, because even with a normal sized large bet (say .5% of your bankroll) this play is very marginal at this true count.


    There are other considerations aside from EV.

  12. #25


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    Hey Meistro, shoot me an e-mail: [email protected]

    Thanks.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    I was at the same table. Now I know who you are. Most of the time, the pit boss will burn that card. You should have bet table max.
    I doubt if you were at the same table, but I got burned on something like this once before. However, it could only be this one person and we have come across each other in the casinos many times over the years.

    So here is a quiz. If you get it right I will know you were there.
    1) The last time you saw me you said it was in xxx. Hint: It starts with M.
    2) When you come to the table and I'm there you always say you ............

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