When losiing streaks hurt..

[Bigdaddy]

i tell myself that if i can't stomach risk i should buy a cd with my money and get a whopping 2.40% if i'm willing to tie up my funds for 5 years. that way with my $100k br i can make a beautiful $2400 my first year in the cd. that works out to be a real sweet $200 per month. what will i do with it all?

Not to change the subject, but I don't view a 5-year CD as tying up my funds for 5 years. I view most banks' 5-year CDs as liquid savings accounts, because the good ones have very generous early termination rules. For instance, Ally bank's penalty for cancelling a 5-year CD is loss of 5-months interest. Big deal...move on to higher rates as the Fed sees fit. As far as guessing the future direction of interest rates - heads I win - tails they lose...

[Gronbog]

Nu, what medicine is that?

You have someone relentlessly making the same critque about your posts, over and over again.

[Freightman]

You have someone relentlessly making the same critque about your posts, over and over again.

Assume you're referring to Don, regarding my typing skills.

[Ustonzen]

Request desktop site.
get full post editing options
embed youtube videos in the cinema reel option button
actually have people see what youre talking about

[mofungoo]

So what did you tell yourself after a horrid losing streak?

Whenever you lose big it's like taking a punch to the gut, it sort of takes the wind out of you. What I find helpful is to review old playing records and look at the good, the bad, and the ugly. Look at the losing streaks, how you lost a big chunk of bankroll in one bad day, look at the sessions when every table you played was a loser. Then look at what happened after those losses. Look at the time you won 28 out of 30 sessions and doubled your bankroll. Look how you now have 10X the bankroll compared to when you started. Then come to the realization that wins will happen, losses will happen, but at the end you are ahead, and that's the bottom line.

[Freightman]

Whenever you lose big it's like taking a punch to the gut, it sort of takes the wind out of you. What I find helpful is to review old playing records and look at the good, the bad, and the ugly. Look at the losing streaks, how you lost a big chunk of bankroll in one bad day, look at the sessions when every table you played was a loser. Then look at what happened after those losses. Look at the time you won 28 out of 30 sessions and doubled your bankroll. Look how you now have 10X the bankroll compared to when you started. Then come to the realization that wins will happen, losses will happen, but at the end you are ahead, and that's the bottom line.

Granted, I'm not as diligent about keeping records as I used to be, but Mofungoo's post is very good. The more types of data you keep, the more ways you can analyze and exploit that data. Hopefully, what everyone says - there may have been a few bumps along the way, but look at the start point, and see how high the top of that graph is now.

[Jabberwocky]

How do you inspire yourself to continue? The full time AP has no choice but to continue (sort of like a BOSS being awful to you but what can you do?). Its the part timers, the recreational players and those that can do without BJ income that get thoughts of quitting, of changing counts, of worrying about playing or betting errors (when it just might be variance).

You get a series of 3-4 losing sessions and you start expecting to lose. You had won last month and now you have lost more in the 2-3 weeks this month than you won all of last month. You had won consistently at this store where you always think you can win (and you worried about BO's) and now you have lost at the same store several times in a row. You have been getting great situations like having two max bets out with a dealer up card of 6 and a TC of 5, and a 19 and 20 on each hand, the dealer pulls out an Ace under his 6 and you think he will get 17 (and you still win) but the dealer pulls out a 9 (now he is at 16) and you start counting the money and the dealer pulls out a 5. Ouch!

You begin to think they will not back you off as you are in a $2k hole in a $25 game so you start dropping all cover, now playing the 16's according to count, playing the 2-6 according to count and hitting your bust hands when count calls for it. You start sitting out at the table in a negative count. and you still lose and lose. You find yourself with a ploppy who is betting 2 blacks on the BJ bet and another black on the poker side bet and he is hitting those side bets regularly getting 9 blacks while losing the 2 blacks and still winning and you get tempted to play the poker bet too.

Next day, one part of you wants to go back with more BR and play, another says "dont be a fool, you cant afford to lose any more" and a third says to give yourself time to recover, say a few days, before you resume playing. If you go now, you will try to win it all back in a session and you will end up losing even more of gettng backed off.

So what did you tell yourself after a horrid losing streak?

"When you lose at blackjack, expect it. " - Lawrence Revere

[21forme]

As has been stated many times, short term results are meaningless.

Have a monster count with a 7,4 and the dealer has a 6 up? There's no guarantee that you are going to get a T, when you double, and the dealer doesn't pull 4 more small cards for 21. Happens all the time. Those who are pathological gamblers trying to convince themselves that they are playing with an edge will never understand this or the math behind it.


As a (former) AP once said to me, after a long losing streak, "even the variance has variance."