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Thread: +ev Video poker

  1. #1


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    +ev Video poker

    How can i calculate the bankroll needed to play this game?

    Its Jacks or better that pays 99.54% but then i get either 0.7% back in comps or 0.56% cash.

    $5 per credit at 3, 5, or 10 play
    May the Variance be with you.

  2. #2


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    The software from Bob Dancer website has all the math and more. A good investment if you plan on attacking these games.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    With this thin of an advantage, make sure you account for your error rate. 0.1% error rate is quite good 0.05% is excellent.

    Play a few thousand hands on Dancer's software to determine.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    With this thin of an advantage, make sure you account for your error rate. 0.1% error rate is quite good 0.05% is excellent.
    Joe can you run the numbers for me? The game is only for tomorrow, i cant get VPW software by then..

    And if im lucky enough with the draw, the game is worth up to an added 10% in comps or 5.6% cash back.

    What kind of swings can i expect with 3, 5 or 10 play? In like a 10 hour Session

    Please help!

  5. #5
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    Joe can you run the numbers for me? The game is only for tomorrow, i cant get VPW software by then..

    And if im lucky enough with the draw, the game is worth up to an added 10% in comps or 5.6% cash back.

    What kind of swings can i expect with 3, 5 or 10 play? In like a 10 hour Session

    Please help!
    I have Dancer's older software which doesn't do the ROR -- this is not of much interest to me because I am not in any danger of losing my bankroll. If you truly have a 5-10% play, I would go for the 10 play. You should be able to play ~60,000 hands in 10 hours. You should hit a royal on average every 40,390 hands. If you are unlucky and don't hit a royal you will lose ~2.5% of your throughput (.025 X 60000 X bet per hand).

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    I have Dancer's older software which doesn't do the ROR -- this is not of much interest to me because I am not in any danger of losing my bankroll. If you truly have a 5-10% play, I would go for the 10 play. You should be able to play ~60,000 hands in 10 hours. You should hit a royal on average every 40,390 hands. If you are unlucky and don't hit a royal you will lose ~2.5% of your throughput (.025 X 60000 X bet per hand).
    Yeah it all depends on what multiplier i get. Usually minimum

  7. #7
    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    For Jacks or Better expect a result between +/- 5% of your total action to cover most possible results. If you play 10hrs of 9/6 Jacks on a 10 play 25c game you should bring at least $5000 with you and you should be able to make it through the day. 10-Play 50c bring $10,000, 10play $1 bring $20,000. You'll likely not lose more than 1/2 of that but sometimes it gets pretty bad. On more volatile games like Deuces I've lost 9% of total action many times, but usually only for 3-4hrs of play.

    For a real answer there is software for that.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    Yeah it all depends on what multiplier i get. Usually minimum
    If what you are playing "Times Pay" (average multiplier 4.05, average occurrence 1 in 15) the multiplier works out to an additional 0.28%

  9. #9


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    $20 Answer

    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    How can i calculate the bankroll needed to play this game?

    Its Jacks or better that pays 99.54% but then i get either 0.7% back in comps or 0.56% cash.

    $5 per credit at 3, 5, or 10 play
    blueman,

    Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker v2.0 - CD is available for a double sawbuck at

    https://www.shoplva.com/products/dun...deo-poker-v2-0

    It will definitively answer these types of questions... I know.

    Dog Hand

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    If what you are playing "Times Pay" (average multiplier 4.05, average occurrence 1 in 15) the multiplier works out to an additional 0.28%
    No it was a comp/cash back thing

  11. #11


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    VPW shows you need an $88k bankroll for a 13.5% ROR for 10-play.



    To me, $20k still sounds a bit risky. Just started running it on VPW ($20k session roll, 6k rounds). EDIT: I'm stupid, I thought BP said $20k for $5 denom 10-play.


    For those interested, I ran the sim for $50k session roll, 6000 rounds, $5 10-play 9/6 JOB. The player ran out of money 13.78% of the time.



    But most importantly, how do you not have VPW or some software to analyze this stuff for you?
    Last edited by RS; 09-22-2017 at 09:00 AM.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by blueman View Post
    Joe can you run the numbers for me? The game is only for tomorrow, i cant get VPW software by then..

    And if im lucky enough with the draw, the game is worth up to an added 10% in comps or 5.6% cash back.

    What kind of swings can i expect with 3, 5 or 10 play? In like a 10 hour Session

    Please help!
    Not sure why you say you can't get software in time.

    VP4Winners - Download from: https://www.shoplva.com/collections/...-v1-5-download

    DRA4VP - Download from: https://www.shoplva.com/collections/...p-2-0-download
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

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