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Thread: Sharky's NFL play-o-the-weak 2017

  1. #196
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    Brady played a good game. He had a four or five key glitches that cost the Patriots the game. He also had almost the same number of just plain blown passes to open receivers that luckily for Brady had no defenders in the area to make a play on the ball. They didn't even come close to the receiver, falling short and to the left. The rest of the game he played very well. Unfortunately for the Patriots the dropped ball that Brady should have caught when Brady was the receiver, not feeling the pressure on the strip stack lost fumble, and the 2 deep balls that the wide open receivers had to stop and wait for just cost too much for the Patriots to overcome. If any two of those 4 Brady gaffs would have went as planned and the Patriots would have been in the game to the end and had a strong chance to win. As it was they were hoping for a miracle at the end. Brady and the Patriots offense have certainly done that often enough but you sensed it was over after the strip sack.
    Last edited by Three; 02-16-2018 at 08:29 PM.

  2. #197
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    Well NE is not a very balanced team. They are all offense and struggle against a strong defense. They didn't face one in the SuperBowl. The defense was most flatteringly described as a bend but don't break defense. I don't think they ever forced a punt but held the 11 drives the Patriots had to only 6 scores (the patriots had the ball when the clock ran out in both haves so the clock gets partial credit for 2 of the 5 scoreless stops). Many of the score were field goals. The Patriots D was not as successful at keeping the Eagles from getting points. The Eagles punted once but were efficient when the downs were running out (3rd and 4th down). Both teams missed extra points. The Eagle also missed two attempts at two-point conversions. The Pats missed a field goal. These special teams gaffs pretty much balance out. So the Pats were outplayed on offense in terms of getting it done when it counted and defense in terms of bend but don't break. The Eagles had 5 TDs and were forced to kick 3 field goals but the Pats were held to just 4 TDs and 2 field goals.

  3. #198


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The Eagles had 5 TDs and were forced to kick 3 field goals but the Pats were held to just 4 TDs and 2 field goals.
    Patriots 33, Eagles 32, Patriots with an 85 percent win probability

    I guess you can still lose with a high probability.

  4. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Patriots 33, Eagles 32, Patriots with an 85 percent win probability

    I guess you can still lose with a high probability.
    If you were watching the game you wouldn't have agreed with that probability at that point. I would have taken the Eagles and equivalent odds at that point in a heartbeat (lay $15 for a payoff of $100). That was some computer models prediction. Computers don't know football. At that point I thought it might come down to clock management and who scored last. The Patriots hadn't been able to stop Foles and the Philly offense. You had to believe the Eagles would answer with points. Then Brady would answer with points. That is not a 85 percent chance of the Patriots winning. Unfortunately for the Patriots, Brady didn't feel the pressure developing in front of him and got strip sacked turning the ball over to the Eagles which you could tell from Brady's reaction that he thought that ended their chances. As it turned out the Eagles scored a TD and a field goal after that but the Patriots never scored again. So much for computers understanding what is so obvious to anyone watching the game.
    Last edited by Three; 02-16-2018 at 10:34 PM.

  5. #200
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Patriots 33, Eagles 32, Patriots with an 85 percent win probability

    I guess you can still lose with a high probability.
    Like all computer simulations/models -- garbage in garbage out.

  6. #201


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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Like all computer simulations/models -- garbage in garbage out.
    This only applies to football you are talking about, correct?

  7. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    This only applies to football you are talking about, correct?
    No this applies across the board to computer modeling. Back in my working days I remember a hydrogeological modeler that would get so caught up in his model simulation that he thought it was the real world rather than a simulation based upon a lot of scientific estimates and assumptions, and when it didn't quite match a real world test he was quite befuddled.

    Do you think if the Patriots and Eagles played 20 times the Patriots would win 17 of the games? I don't. Obviously there are some garbage estimates/assumptions in the computer model, or things the model did not take into consideration.

    There are also excellent computer models based on sound mathematical principles, but again they are just models not the real world. Do BJ results really follow bell shaped curve distributions, probably not exactly but this is a good approximation. Run million hand simulations a few times and see slight variations in the results -- excellent approximations, but not quite reality.

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    Does anyone here use free tipster websites? I am looking for tennis or soccer tips, but other sports work as well.

  9. #204


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    All punters left the house? Come on...

  10. #205


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    Paid or free, DONT use tipsters, unless you want to lose money.
    The only person who truly offered a winning, serious and professional pick service died a year ago.

  11. #206
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    Pari-Mutual Anomalies



    Is there any interest here on discussing
    odd-ball race track payoffs?

  12. #207


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    If a tipster can prove a good record, why not trust them? With a bonus from a bookmaker on top there is some good money to be made.

  13. #208
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    double up,

    The net' provides both a swamp of bullshit and a treasure trove of inestimable value.

    Never trust a "tipster." Do not be so naive.Develop a highly tuned sense of skepticism.

    Cynicism, when applied to the internet, will serve your needs.

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