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Thread: Sharky's NFL play-o-the-weak 2017

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Mama View Post
    Like all computer simulations/models -- garbage in garbage out.
    This only applies to football you are talking about, correct?

  2. #222
    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    This only applies to football you are talking about, correct?
    No this applies across the board to computer modeling. Back in my working days I remember a hydrogeological modeler that would get so caught up in his model simulation that he thought it was the real world rather than a simulation based upon a lot of scientific estimates and assumptions, and when it didn't quite match a real world test he was quite befuddled.

    Do you think if the Patriots and Eagles played 20 times the Patriots would win 17 of the games? I don't. Obviously there are some garbage estimates/assumptions in the computer model, or things the model did not take into consideration.

    There are also excellent computer models based on sound mathematical principles, but again they are just models not the real world. Do BJ results really follow bell shaped curve distributions, probably not exactly but this is a good approximation. Run million hand simulations a few times and see slight variations in the results -- excellent approximations, but not quite reality.

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