Optimal play for this tournament blackjack??

[Fringe]

Grand prize is 200 bucks. Not much but for about 30 mins of play I'd say it's worth it.

Rules: 6 players per table. Everyone receives 25 chips of the same denomination.

There is a button, after the button makes two passes around the table, the two players with the most money move on to the final table.

CSM 6 deck, H17, ENHC, RSA, DOA, DAS with no pen, no chance to count.

Basically it's a crapshoot. Whoever gets the luckiest wins...

However could a semblance of betting strategy be involved?

I've tried minimum bets hoping the other players self-immolate. This didn't work as in the last few rounds some players have gone all in and won, making for large stacks.

I've tried the self immolation strategy, betting a portion of my bankroll on each hand. With no luck, I've been eliminated quick.

Anyone have ideas for this game?


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[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Grand prize is 200 bucks. Not much but for about 30 mins of play I'd say it's worth it."

Divide the prize pool by the number of players to get the e.v.

e.g. $500 / 50 = $10

Are you certain that the CSM has 6 decks and not 5?

You do not count cards in a tournament.

Read Stanford Wong's book on this topic:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/STANFORD-WON...4AAOSwxu5ZOEz2

[Gronbog]

Taking a page from the WoV, here is a simple strategy for this tournament, given the conditions you have given:

• Bet minimum at the start.
• At any time, if 2 or more leaders have a lead over you of more than your bankroll and start betting small, then immediately go all-in to catch up.
• When the puck is making its final pass, start making bets that will give you the lead if you win. If you can wait until after the puck passes you, then even better. If losing the bet would cripple you then go all in. If you can't take the lead with a single bet, then go all in hand after hand until you can.
• You will either gain the lead, or bust out. If you have the lead, defend your lead by trying to bet approximately the same amount as your key opponents.

[Gronbog]

Grand prize is 200 bucks. Not much but for about 30 mins of play I'd say it's worth it.

Depends on the entry fee and what else you could be doing with your time. As Flash has pointed out the "pure luck" EV of this tournament is the prize pool divided by the number of entrants. Assuming the final table is also 6 players, with 2 advancing from each first round table, there will be 3 tables of 6 players each in the first round or 18 players. So the "pure luck" EV would be $200 / 18 or $11.11. If you are more skilled than your opponents, then your EV will be higher. If you are less skilled, your EV will be lower.

Rules: 6 players per table. Everyone receives 25 chips of the same denomination.

There is a button, after the button makes two passes around the table, the two players with the most money move on to the final table.

This is the most relevant information you posted. You mentioned that players can go all-in, but you didn't mention what the minimum bet is. These bits of information are extremely important, as they are the main factors in determining your aggression level in the early and middle rounds of the session. Let's assume that the minimum bet is a single chip.

CSM 6 deck, H17, ENHC, RSA, DOA, DAS with no pen, no chance to count.

The number of decks is irrelevant, H17 is irrelevant, the CSM is irrelevant, ENHC is irrelevant. The important pieces of information here in order of importance are DOA, DAS, RSA. This is because they determine the probability of being able to get multiple bets in play when needed.

Basically it's a crapshoot. Whoever gets the luckiest wins...

Nope. You have already demonstrated that. You had the beginnings of a decent strategy with your "bet minimum" approach, but you forgot to consider the end-game, where these things are really won or lost. Your strategy of betting a portion of your bankroll is not a good one, because your bets were not correlated in any way to the situation you were in when making them and your pattern would be easily figured out by any skilled players at the table, allowing them to predict your bets when betting before you.

However could a semblance of betting strategy be involved?

Yes. You already have some clues from the strategy used by the successful players you have competed against.

I've tried minimum bets hoping the other players self-immolate. This didn't work as in the last few rounds some players have gone all in and won, making for large stacks.

Given a minimum of 1 chip and no maximum, playing minimum at the beginning of the round in order to see how things go is a good strategy. The reason is that no one can get a dangerous lead on you without taking a lot of risk. What is a dangerous lead? Well, any lead less than the number of chips you have is the same and is not dangerous. The reason is that you can catch them with a single win. A lead more than the number of chips you have is a little more dangerous and a lead of 1.5 times the number of chips you have is seriously dangerous. Think about these thresholds and it should be easy to see why.

I've tried the self immolation strategy, betting a portion of my bankroll on each hand. With no luck, I've been eliminated quick.

I already touched on this above. This is not a good strategy for the reasons I gave. You are betting chips that you don't need to for no reason that correlates with the evolving situation.

Anyone have ideas for this game?

The clues are all there. I've already advised you that betting minimum to begin the session was a good idea. Sometimes the others over bet and knock themselves out, but more often, one or more players manage to build a lead over the others. Now think about what the others did that allowed them to beat you. They were easily able to overcome whatever hole they were in by winning one or more large bets. You now know that they are going to do this.

The key is to try to be in an advancing position near the end of the round when betting after your key opponents. The reason is that you can then defend your lead by betting roughly the same as them. This gives you a big advantage because the covariance between spots in blackjack is fairly high. This means that if your opponent wins his hand, there is a strong chance that you will also win your hand, thus preserving your lead. The same applies if you lose your hand. There is also then a strong chance that you opponent will also lose his hand. In fact, if you can make a bet such that the only way your opponent catches you is if you lose while they win, you have about an 88% chance of preserving your lead on that hand. It gets trickier with more than one player within range, but the principle is the same.

Now, if you are behind, you do the opposite. If the leaders are betting big, you bet small. If they bet small, you bet big. This creates the potential to create movement, which you desperately need in this situation.

With these concepts in our arsenal, we can now formulate a strategy for this tournament.

• Since the minimum is small and there is no maximum, you want to start off playing conservatively. I suggest betting minimum.
• Use this time, when you don't have to think about much to assess your opponents. Who is skilled? Who is clueless? Who is an idiot? Who doesn't even know the hand signals? What are their betting patterns? Small flat bet?, Medium flat bet? Big flat bet? Progression? This information can be useful in predicting what they might bet during the end-game if you have to bet before them.
• You should also be aware of where the puck will be on the final hand. Recalculate this as players are eliminated. You want to know whether you will be betting before or after your key opponents on the final hand. The earlier your position on the final hand, the more important it will be to already be in an advancing position when that hand begins.
• If the leaders build a lead of more than your bankroll and at least 2 of them start betting small, then go all in immediately in order to catch up.
• Otherwise, keep betting minimum until the puck is making its final pass. If you can, wait until the puck has passed you for the final time. This is when you get to bet after everyone else for the final time. Make a bet that will give you the lead if everyone wins. If losing that bet would cripple you, then go all in.
• If you lose, but still have chips, go all in on every hand until you catch up. If you win, then defend your lead for the rest of the session by trying to bet approximately the same as your key opponents.
• On the final hand, many will go all-in. You may also need to do the same. However, if you can, hold back a few chips. It is not uncommon for the table to wiped out by a strong dealer hand with everyone all-in on the final hand.

As you can see, there is still luck involved, but playing this way will give you an edge over a substantial percentage of the other players who will have no real strategy at all. This will increase your actual EV over the "pure luck" EV.

[Gronbog]

How many noticed that I never mentioned counting, even once?

For more strategy advice and an excellent forum, I recommend Ken Smith's blackjacktournaments.com

[SpikeBJ]

Count chips not cards.

[Fringe]

How many noticed that I never mentioned counting, even once?

For more strategy advice and an excellent forum, I recommend Ken Smith's blackjacktournaments.com

Thorough. I'll get to studying. Appreciate the time you've just taken to respond.


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