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Thread: Anyone here ever lost 200 max. Bets during a prolonged losing streak?

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    Wow - 200 max bet loss in 270 hours! You've experienced this and are still playing? Honestly, if I had a run like that, I'd either quit (probably half way there) and/or hire a private investigator to check out the games I was playing to see if I was being cheated. I certainly wouldn't even think about questioning my gaming skill because that factor is miniscule compared to the variance you've experienced.

    The odds of a -4 SD event are about 1 in 31,500. So if you're logging 810 hours per year (three 270-hour sessions per year), you would expect this unfortunate occurrence to happen about once every 10,500 years! (Global warming will kill us all off long before then ). Looking at it another way, if you take a group of 31,500 serious blackjack players who all play a 270-hour session, one of them would have this kind of luck.

    What would be even more amazing would be if someone responded to your post and claimed that they too had a run like that....
    Came close to a run like that a few years back. In addition to the unbelievably bad run of cards, I likely wasn't on my A game either. The run started at an ATH point. I had just been told, that a surgery which I needed, delayed for quite a while due to risk factors, would go forward. I was also told to get my affairs in order. This was not due to Complexity of surgery, but rather to risk factors. never knew for sure it it was affecting me, but I never discounted it either.

    On the other side of the bell curve, I've had a win streak, which in terms of dollars, easily exceeded the loss just described. That may have been 5 sigma. Not even sure of how to calculate it. It absolutely crushed, 3 months running, any previous month by significant margins. The run continued for another 2 months on top of that, earning only 10-12 k per month. I played a lot in those days.

  2. #15


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    This thread has inspired me!!! Flew into Las Vegas last night, have lost 3 of 4 sessions, down $1800 and thoughts of going back home pop up. $1800 is unfortunately 3o% of my trip BR. Should have brought more. No hooker rewards for me this trip.

  3. #16


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    [QUOTE=Three;229577]$1800 is 30% of your trip BR? You traveled with only $6K to gamble with? When I am down to $6K I wonder if I have enough to start a fresh shoe. At $4K I know I shouldn't start a fresh shoe. Counting works because you have the BR to put out the bets and ride out a bad run. Trip Br's are very important because if you don't bring enough you aren't playing with the edge you thought you were.[/QUO

    Learning the hard way T3. Playing mostly DD games at $25 min. Didnt get to my safety deposit box before bank closed yesterday. With DD games at my level, $2k for a short 20 minute session is ok.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Came close to a run like that a few years back.
    Freight; How close and over how many hours? Very curious.
    Note that this result constitutes 4.5% of the total betting volume. Even a typical ploppy playing to a -1.5% EV and spreading this wildly for 270 hours needs a -2.5 SD variance to get that same result (still a 160-1 shot).

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Renzey View Post
    Freight; How close and over how many hours? Very curious.
    Note that this result constitutes 4.5% of the total betting volume. Even a typical ploppy playing to a -1.5% EV and spreading this wildly for 270 hours needs a -2.5 SD variance to get that same result (still a 160-1 shot).
    First, I should have qualified that the loss was the equivalent of 200 max bets - it wasnt 200 max bets as such. Loss was over 300 hours, average 100 hours per month, give or take, playing most afternoons. I had one stretch of 1-2 wins over 20 sessions. It was really rough. I would suggest a 2% loss on total betting volume, arrived at using $100 as an average bet at 100 hands per hour. CVCX suggested I was over 3 SD. I played to a virtual 0 Ror. Surgery was done, did not play during recovery period, and normal win patters reemerge. I lost my last 2 local play spots that year.

    The interesting question, and one that I'm not sure what the answer really is - does state of mind affect performance (which I think it does), and if so, to what degree (that's what I don't know).

    Now, the most interesting point of all - the reverse side - an unbelievable win streak. With prior max month revenues in the 10-12k range, to post 3 monthly wins of 34.5, 27.5, and 22k . Same betting levels at that time. Or, a crossover of betting levels covering 16 consecutive plus months, which included one full year of no losing months.

    I thought I was good then, think I'm better now, though play far less. I've rambled more so than I normally wood - moral - don't be a smart ass - don't think you're to good for the math to affect you - when the shit hits the fan, it stinks like no tomorrow.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    - when the shit hits the fan, it stinks like no tomorrow.
    A generator of modern art..

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    First, I should have qualified that the loss was the equivalent of 200 max bets - it wasnt 200 max bets as such. Loss was over 300 hours.
    Freight; Same here. The "max bets" term was used as an overall measuring metric.

    So were you undaunted by that? Or did the record cause you to examine all you could?
    I'd had a couple of 100 or 110 max bet losing spells in past decades, but nothing worse.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Renzey View Post
    Freight; Same here. The "max bets" term was used as an overall measuring metric.

    So were you undaunted by that? Or did the record cause you to examine all you could?
    I'd had a couple of 100 or 110 max bet losing spells in past decades, but nothing worse.
    I'd be lying if I said it didn't bother me - it did. It was a 60k, not chump change. However, it wasn't enough of a loss to cause me to resize. Bankroll for blackjack, in my case kept separate from all other assets, was still formidable. I had years of records upon which to reflect. I knew my win rates per hour over my entire journey, as well as win percentage. I knew what the numbers would reflect during average runs, superlative runs, and for that matter, when things when into the toilet.

    I had one worse, in proportion, downturn, which occured in my first year of record keeping. My massive $4500 bankroll, which included $600 of initial seed money, was bludgeoned with a 2000 downturn over, I think, 6 weeks. I was more upset by that than I was over the 60k. Clearly, my maturity as a player had grown.

    I don't try to reinvent the wheel. I listen well to those who have laid the groundwork - Wong, Thorpe, Snyder, Schlesinger, etc. I have absolute faith in the math, with the skills I've developed, and the realization that for as much as I know, there is still a great deal that I don't. It's been an interesting ride.

  9. #22


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    As an add on, I've stalled a few times, no real growth or loss, simply a maintenance of the status quo. The graph looks good.

  10. #23


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    Whats your spread? Seems fathomable if you play DD with a very small spread

  11. #24


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    First off kudos - tremendous respect for an AP that has obviously weathered an insane storm.

    I've been pretty fortunate in my career, I lost my entire bankroll of 5k starting out and rebuilt from 2k. So that was 50 max bets in the beginning.

    Fast forward, I suffered a 100 hour losing streak losing 50k before coming back up, then I hit 300k before losing 120k- 120 max bets. After that I cleared 600k before getting pounded for 220k- another 80-120 max bets. Worst hand during that time I lost 36k in one hand.

    I finally cleared 700k after losing for over 100 hours again and it has been a long process that's for sure.
    Last edited by Masterhoudini; 09-10-2017 at 10:39 PM.

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Masterhoudini View Post
    First off kudos - tremendous respect for an AP that has obviously weathered an insane storm.

    I've been pretty fortunate in my career, I lost my entire bankroll of 5k starting out and rebuilt from 2k. So that was 50 max bets in the beginning.

    Fast forward, I suffered a 100 hour losing streak losing 50k before coming back up, then I hit 300k before losing 120k- 120 max bets. After that I cleared 600k before getting pounded for 220k- another 80-120 max bets. Worst hand during that time I lost 36k in one hand.

    I finally cleared 700k after losing for over 100 hours again and it has been a long process that's for sure.
    What place even lets you get in time to play as high to lose 36k in one hand... i get major heat just hitting 500 or 1k

  13. #26


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    I went on a -160 max bet loss this year. Luckily I started the year off with 100 max bet win (at higher top bet) and recovered more than half my losses since my losing started.

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