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Thread: Interesting Voodoo Question: Flat Betting Ploppy vs Spreading Ploppy

  1. #1


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    Interesting Voodoo Question: Flat Betting Ploppy vs Spreading Ploppy

    Hi All,

    I'd like to preface this by saying I know that this is a voodoo-related discussion and that's why I've posted it in the voodoo forum.
    I am not advocating this type of play ahah, It's just an interesting question.

    The question is:
    ------------------
    Playing a blackjack game with a normal house edge (~0.5% in the casino's favor), which player is more likely to be positive after 8 hours of play:

    A ploppy flat-betting table minimum (ploppy 1)

    or

    A ploppy spreading his bets 1 - 10 according to his "gut". (ploppy 2)

    Both ploppies play good-to-perfect basic strategy, and have large enough bankrolls to not go broke.
    Neither of them are counting.
    -------------------

    The reason I think it's an interesting question is because obviously ploppy 1 will lose less money on average, but ploppy 2 at least has one of the factors require to beat the game.
    Ploppy 1 has none of the factors required to beat the game.

    Beating the game requires counting (knowing when to spread), and actually spreading your bet. Playing variations help too yes I know I know.
    So, it is possible that sometimes Ploppy 2 might happen to be spreading his bet with the count, just by luck, and come out ahead occasionally.

    I believe there is no doubt that ploppy 2 will lose more money on average, but I wonder if ploppy 2 would also come out positive more often.

    Let me know what you think, and explain your rationale!

    - Equanimity

  2. #2


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    My instinct tells me that it doesn't matter. Clearly, betting 10 or 1 all the time wouldn't make any difference. So, why should mixing up the bets lead to being ahead more frequently? I think you'll be ahead about 45% of the time no matter how you bet.

    Don

  3. #3


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Of course the guy that spreads his bets is going to have a higher chance of being ahead. But he's also going to have a higher chance of being behind. Very simple.


    To understand it better -- imagine you're flipping a coin, and you're only going to flip the coin twice. If I bet $1 on both tosses, I have a 25% chance of being ahead, 50% chance of being even, and 25% of being behind. But the guy who bets $1 on one flip and $5 on the other flip, has a 50% chance of being ahead. As long as that $5 bet wins (it could even be a $2 bet for this example), he will be ahead. The other guy needs to win both bets.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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