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Thread: negative progression

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Zee has admitted that he would need a "Little Blue Pill."
    My suspicion is that he is too cheap to foot the cost. But if
    we each contribute a nickel or a dime for pharmaceuticals ...

    Shakespeare and Lebowski
    To bone, or not to bone, that is the question.
    Wouldst thou firkst a damsel, aided with but 10 shillings to be brought to success.

    Borrowed material and adjusted

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Zee has admitted that he would need a "Little Blue Pill."
    My suspicion is that he is too cheap to foot the cost. But if
    we each contribute a nickel or a dime for pharmaceuticals ...

    I have enough to last me 20 years at a pill a day....but thanks. If this APBJ does not work out, I will start selling those.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by samsnead View Post
    i know im gonna get killed for this because it sounds like a martingale system but bear with me. ok if i walk into a casino everyday to just win $20 and wait for the dealer to go twice without busting and then i jump in with a $20 negative progression until i win one time and then immediately leave the casino after the first win. fyi table max is $2500 so that would enable me to go to 7 rounds. Mathematically could i go 365 days without losing? so probability of losing being less than 1 and 365? i know it can happen at any time but this would be nine straight hands of the dealer not busting and 7 straight hands of my losing. my math puts it at about one every 400 days. is my math correct? thanks. interested in your expert opinions.
    Your problem is that you give up doubling and splitting. To win BJ, you need to do more doubling and splitting when count is high and you have big bets.

  4. #17


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    Banker thanks for taking the time I'm a newbie. The one thing that's not calculated is that you probably will see over 1000 hands yearly which means about 50 black jacks right. So depending on if you get your blackjacks at 20 40 80 160 320 640 or 1280 that would really cut into your loss or even get you to a profit?

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I have enough to last me 20 years at a pill a day....but thanks. If this APBJ does not work out, I will start selling those.
    Is it a bird
    Is it a plane
    No, it's ...........
    https://youtu.be/3zdqij49IvY

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by samsnead View Post
    Banker thanks for taking the time I'm a newbie. The one thing that's not calculated is that you probably will see over 1000 hands yearly which means about 50 black jacks right. So depending on if you get your blackjacks at 20 40 80 160 320 640 or 1280 that would really cut into your loss or even get you to a profit?
    Not really. If you are playing basic strategy, then depending on the rules or conditions your expected value is about -0.5% assuming perfect play and taking into account player getting blackjacks. In the strategy you proposed which is pure progression, your expected value would be less because you lose close to 2% if you did not double or split (assumption to keep the 20$ bet scheme). So, long term you will be around -2.5% EV.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    The only reason the dealer not busting is irrelevant would be if the trials are independent. In blackjack trials are not independent. This means that the dealer could be not busting because the deck is rich bin low cards and you are placing your bets at the worst time. The dealer is not likely to bust if his not busting is due to the deck composition rather than random chance..

    Of course we know that. The assumption of independent events is made to accommodate the scheme provided by the OP. Unless there is a way to quantitate the value of seeing dealer busting 2 hands in a row without knowing anything about the composition of the deck, we have to assume they are random events.

  8. #21


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Dear Sam Snead
    schmuck, what if you lose the 8th bet trying to break even.
    Calm down for a second and lets think about this. You are aware, right, that over a million hands the win streaks and losing streaks will fall into patterns? Therefore, the cards, or should i say the wins and losses have a "memory." Its the mafia and moderators only that want you to believe they don't. Over a million hands you will win 47.5% and lose 52.5% of all hands. And your number of win streaks of 2+ will be 47.5% of your number of win streaks of 1. Your loss streaks of 2+ will be 52.5% of your loss streaks of 1. Seems like your fighting a losing battle, right? Not if you are aware of this fact, and arm yourself with some math. Samsnead may just be onto something here. Why act like the mafia or NASA or the government and snuff his thought process out? Maybe the earth is much bigger than they tell us. Maybe the earth's axial tilt of 23.4 (or 66.6) degrees is a lie. Perhaps the earth's supposed speed of 66,600 mph around the sun is a lie too. The earth is filled with lie's and untruths. People have brains and can do the math for themselves. Afterall, your card counting is based on math, although weak math percentagewise, with high volatility, fluctuation, and variance.
    Last edited by 200%; 09-02-2017 at 09:41 AM.

  9. #22


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    Most woke post on here ever. Goodnight everyone.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by 200% View Post
    Calm down for a second and lets think about this. You are aware, right, that over a million hands the win streaks and losing streaks will fall into patterns? Therefore, the cards, or should i say the wins and losses have a "memory." Its the mafia and moderators only that want you to believe they don't. Over a million hands you will win 47.5% and lose 52.5% of all hands. And your number of win streaks of 2+ will be 48.5% of your number of win streaks of 1. Your loss streaks of 2+ will be 52.2% of your loss streaks of 1. Seems like your fighting a losing battle, right? Not if you are aware of this fact, and arm yourself with some math. Samsnead may just be onto something here. Why act like the mafia or NASA or the government and snuff his thought process out? Maybe the earth is much bigger than they tell us. Maybe the earth's axial tilt of 23.4 (or 66.6) degrees is a lie. Perhaps the earth's supposed speed of 66,600 mph around the sun is a lie too. The earth is filled with lie's and untruths. People have brains and can do the math for themselves. Afterall, your card counting is based on math, although weak math percentagewise, with high volatility, fluctuation, and variance.
    Yikes.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Yikes.
    I kind of enjoyed it...

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by SpikeBJ View Post
    I kind of enjoyed it...
    Well, there was some humour value. The intent was good, but the comments misinformed.

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    The intent was good, but the comments misinformed.
    Well, we are typing in a bright yellow background.

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