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Thread: Winning Horse Racing System - Betting Against Bridge Jumpers

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    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    Winning Horse Racing System - Betting Against Bridge Jumpers

    there was considerable interest in my earlier thread on racing which is why i started this new thread

    for a very long time i believed there was no such thing as a winning horse racing system. i thought the only way to win was very difficult, hard core handicapping. now i believe there is one. it doesn't get a lot of bets but imo it still merits applause.

    i learned about it from an extremely knowledgeable poster on another site who is also a racehorse owner

    a bridge jumper is a plunger who bets big on a very strong favorite usually in a small field, usually to show (3rd or better), but sometimes to place. so much money is bet on this horse that it creates oversize show payoffs when the jumpers' horse fails. bridge jumpers are called bridge jumpers because when their horse fails they may go looking for a bridge to jump off of because they have lost so much money pursuing such a small profit.

    the bridge jumper believes the horse is a "lock" (sure thing) to show. in reality no horse is a lock because horses are animals who cannot talk and tell their trainer when they don't feel good. secretariat once lost a race and it was learned afterwards that he had an abscessed tooth.

    in the interests of full disclosure i cannot certify the system in the same way you guys would certify a blackjack system because it relies on 2 statements by this person that are nearly impossible to verify but nonetheless i believe them to be true based on years of experience as a horse player.

    the first statement is that the jumpers' horse will fail on average 10% of the time. the 2nd statement is if the horse has 85-90% of the show money bet on him then the other 3 horses will pay on average $100 total based on 3 $2.00 bets when the jumpers' horse fails. most legal u.s. racing websites will show the amount of show money bet on each horse. although it is not 100% accurate because it is not always quickly updated nonetheless it is imo sufficient.

    following is a cut and paste of this person's postings. after that is a link to a twitter feed that tracks the horses of bridge jumpers. after that is a link to a chart of a race showing huge show payouts when the jumpers' horse failed:


    "Not every result will make you money. But if you do it every time, you'll be up overall. The horse will probably hit the board 9 out of 10 times. I'd say the average bridge jumper race has 7 horses. So if you're betting every other horse to show, you're betting $12 a race. When the horse hits the board, you're probably going to end up losing $7. But, one out of 10 times, you're probably going to be ending up winning $100 on average. It is the only system for actually making money at the track that I know of, but a legitimate opportunity probably happens once a day (max) on average across the country on a weekend. A lot of times you'll see 60-70% of show money bet on a horse, but it's not enough. If it's at that rate you need to handicap the race. It needs to get in the 85-90% range to make it worth it for me to bet automatically on."



    https://twitter.com/bridgejumper?lang=en



    http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...17&cy=USA&rn=2
    Last edited by drunk; 08-14-2017 at 11:03 AM.

    money don't get everything it's true

    but what it don't get I can't use.

    money can't buy me love

    lyrics from 2 different Beatles songs

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    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Interesting read. I can almost hear my Dad laugh at the term bridge jumper. He's probably been on that bridge a time or two himself.

    I think a few buddies in the sportsbook would enjoy this post. Do you mind if I run it by them?
    no problem. i've been there a few times myself but not with horses. with basketball.
    Last edited by drunk; 08-14-2017 at 01:25 AM.

    money don't get everything it's true

    but what it don't get I can't use.

    money can't buy me love

    lyrics from 2 different Beatles songs

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    Thanks for this. I was big into handicapping a few years back and gave it up because of how difficult it is. I really loved reading all of Beyer's books, regardless of never having a 50k year at the races.

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    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    Thanks for this. I was big into handicapping a few years back and gave it up because of how difficult it is. I really loved reading all of Beyer's books, regardless of never having a 50k year at the races.
    you're welcome. i have a funny story about beyer who recently retired from writing anyway. he was originally based in maryland which is where i'm from and he focused on laurel and pimlico. one day i happened to be sitting next to him at laurel. i looked over at him and i did a double take because he was betting off the equibase program not the drf which doesn't have his own speed figures. it was hilarious. to me anyway. just for anyone else who may be reading this and may think 50k is chump change; that book was published in 1980 when 50k was a great deal more than it is now in terms of buying power.
    Last edited by drunk; 08-14-2017 at 07:17 AM.

    money don't get everything it's true

    but what it don't get I can't use.

    money can't buy me love

    lyrics from 2 different Beatles songs

  5. #5


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    July 22nd, 2017 San Diego Handicap, Del Mar, California.

    "Bridge Jumper" Record Set as the "best" horse
    in the USA, Arrogate, runs fourth in a field of five.

    The winner paid: $17.60 ... $32.60 ... $22.00
    The place horse: (odds: 24 to 1 paid ... $119.80 and $67.40
    The show horse: paid ... $38.20

    All but ($214,466) of the total W-P-S pools of ($2,671,938)
    was bet on Arrogate. Almost all of the Place and Show bets
    were placed on Arrogate.

    The Place/Show bet return on the place horse annhilated the
    old record set on 9-1-55 by Cipria ~ $106.60 and $40.20
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 08-15-2017 at 05:06 AM.

  6. #6


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    MY SYSTEM

    For 1977-78 I selected 22% winners with mean odds of 4.70 to 1 from a huge sample.
    Do the math to see my amazing advantage
    I made a lot of moolah!

    The PhD statistician who chaired my Thesis Commitee did a regression analysis of my extensive (hand) collected data. That failed to produce significant profits ~ until I factored in the most important factor - the odds. An article I found from around 1969 (in Money Magazine I believe it was) found that if one had blindly bet ALL of the horses held at odds of 5-1, (including more than one horse with those odds running in the same race) - at all of the New York State Race Tracks for the prior two (or three) years they would have overcome the high track edge and "broken even."
    I also recalled that more than a half century before, famed Pro Gambler "Pittsburgh Phil" was supposed to have had a "rule" that entailed his never betting a horse with odds of less than three to one (3:1). That restriction was also precisely echoed by the original "Nick (the Greek) Dandalos."

    My "system" became a goldmine when I found that when looking at my top four "Power Rated" horses, in sequential order, the one that had odds within a certain narrow range (completely dependent upon the size of the field) was my betting selection, as long as there was not a prohibitive favorite in the race. Usually my top two horses were held at low odds
    and I would be betting what I had tediously computed to be the 3rd or 4th fastest horse,
    in fields of 8 to 10 horses.

    Typically I found a solid wager in > 1/3 of all of the races.

    I had pre-paid the mutual clerks $5 per race to place MY bets without my having to queue-up with lines of civilians hoping to bet at the last possible instant, risking being "shut-out" without a bet.
    I would be placing $100 minimum bets, but I wanted near-certainty of the final odds. They readily accepted my largesse and I could stand way back watching the field and signal with hand gestures the number of the horse that I was betting and how many hundred dollar bills to bet on my behalf. Minimum wage was very low 41 years ago, and my $5 tokes were viewed as huge. My tips were the only ones that they would get, several times a day, and the 1976 $5 dollar bills were the equivalent of >$25 nowadays.

    In a pre-personal computer age the time consumed "burned (me) out" before 1978.

    In a fit of pique I burned all of my raw data and the tables and matrices of the weighted factors that I had been employing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    July 22nd, 2017 San Diego Handicap, Del Mar, California.

    "Bridge Jumper" Record Set as the "best" horse
    in the USA, Arrogate, runs fourth in a field of five.

    The winner paid: $17.60 ... $32.60 ... $22.00
    The place horse: (odds: 24 to 1 paid ... $119.80 and $67.40
    The show horse: paid ... $38.20

    All but ($214,466) of the total W-P-S pools of ($2,671,938)
    was bet on Arrogate. Almost all of the Place and Show bets
    were placed on Arrogate.

    The Place/Show bet return on the place horse annhilated the
    old record set on 9-1-55 by Cipria ~ $106.60 and $40.20
    I just passed this on to my close friend who is a horse racing buff. He replied: "Yea - I was there - worse yet - if Arrogate would have won, I would have hit the pick six!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    you're welcome. i have a funny story about beyer who recently retired from writing anyway. he was originally based in maryland which is where i'm from and he focused on laurel and pimlico. one day i happened to be sitting next to him at laurel. i looked over at him and i did a double take because he was betting off the equibase program not the drf which doesn't have his own speed figures. it was hilarious. to me anyway. just for anyone else who may be reading this and may think 50k is chump change; that book was published in 1980 when 50k was a great deal more than it is now in terms of buying power.
    Hey Drunk -- if you were using this angle, would you be mostly looking at weekend races with large amounts of action, or do you think this is also valid for midweek races? Also, I'm assuming this is thoroughbred only but just curious if people think the same applies to harness. (I've never bet on harness and don't know anything about it.)

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    July 22nd, 2017 San Diego Handicap, Del Mar, California.

    "Bridge Jumper" Record Set as the "best" horse
    in the USA, Arrogate, runs fourth in a field of five.

    The winner paid: $17.60 ... $32.60 ... $22.00
    The place horse: (odds: 24 to 1 paid ... $119.80 and $67.40
    The show horse: paid ... $38.20

    All but ($214,466) of the total W-P-S pools of ($2,671,938)
    was bet on Arrogate. Almost all of the Place and Show bets
    were placed on Arrogate.

    The Place/Show bet return on the place horse annhilated the
    old record set on 9-1-55 by Cipria ~ $106.60 and $40.20
    Wow, only 5 horses with a prohibited favorite expected to win easily. Bet place and show on all other 4 nags expecting fav to win and take most of the handle.

  10. #10
    Senior Member drunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by therefinery View Post
    Hey Drunk -- if you were using this angle, would you be mostly looking at weekend races with large amounts of action, or do you think this is also valid for midweek races? Also, I'm assuming this is thoroughbred only but just curious if people think the same applies to harness. (I've never bet on harness and don't know anything about it.)
    i think it can happen on the weekdays but less often because the tracks feature the best and strongest horses for the weekend crowds hoping to keep them happy. the best way to find out is to follow the twitter feed link in my op. i'm not really sure about harness but i would guess it's not as good an angle there because i believe the favorites in harness races win and show more often than on the flats. there is a very special consideration for the 2 west virginia tracks - Charlestown and Mountaineer because they have a mandatory minimum payout of $2.20, not $2.10 or 10% profit instead of 5% profit. this causes the jumpers to jump on even weaker horses to get the higher payouts. unfortunately Mountaineer is famous for their cheapness and they often declare no show betting in small fields with strong favorites so they can avoid liability. i think Charlestown does this much less. i think to make it worth your while you have to combine it with some handicapping because a lot the jumpers horses are not going to have show money in the 85% plus range on them. i would bet against only the weaker of the jumper horses when its less than 85% and i would choose 2 of the strongest others in the field to show instead of all of them. betting against bridge jumpers became a much better deal in 2005 because all of the tracks changed from standard pool pricing to net pool pricing. this is complicated to explain and i'm not going to try to do that. but what it means is when the jumpers' horse is in the money the other horses that showed are going to have higher payouts then before.
    Last edited by drunk; 08-16-2017 at 02:35 PM.

    money don't get everything it's true

    but what it don't get I can't use.

    money can't buy me love

    lyrics from 2 different Beatles songs

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