Cover play

[Freightman]

Freightman,

I have heard of this rule, but never seen it in person. How did you decide which plays were worth giving up? How much EV would seeing an extra card be worth? I assume you are speaking of making plays that are basically a toss up anyway. If not, I would think the better move would be to always play two or three hands if there is no one else at the table. This is not a criticism, I just want to know where my thinking is off.

Your thinking about right. The cost to me was simply a difference in amount lost on negative expectation hands versus the knowledge of an additional card, which represented additional deck penetration. Given enough hands, the differential is enough to potentially make a difference between medium type VS max bets towards shoes end. Now, I honestly don't recall if that indeed happened, however, the potential of it happening would be significant enough to make the play(s) very worthwhile.

I was essentially talking about passing 15, 16 type hands v 9 or 10 with NS, neutral and negative counts.

[Freightman]

T3 spent a lot of words about counts and counting and then he followed up with.."Then comes all the non-counting stuff that is more important and requires more discipline than counting. Too many don't even realize these things are a must to master. Things like BR management, and knowing how to use the count in the casino to make money not just follow a formula, and game selection, comportment, table management, finding good conditions, etc"

Damn right, this is "more important" and really, the count you use is almost irrelevant in today's game. The successful HiLo players are successful because of what T3 says in his last paragraph above. Don't fret the count.

Which also incorporates judgement, which you are shy on.

[Freightman]

Blackjack ATTACK, 3rd Edition by Don Schlesinger is a must to own, as well as a necessity if you intend to take the game seriously.

It is an absolute must have fir any serious library. For the newbie, there are references far more valuable. Like a fine wine, a beginner has to "age" into Blackjack Attack.

Without the traditional references to grow in, I think a newbie would find this classic work somewhat daunting.

[Freightman]

Your thinking about right. The cost to me was simply a difference in amount lost on negative expectation hands versus the knowledge of an additional card, which represented additional deck penetration. Given enough hands, the differential is enough to potentially make a difference between medium type VS max bets towards shoes end. Now, I honestly don't recall if that indeed happened, however, the potential of it happening would be significant enough to make the play(s) very worthwhile.

I was essentially talking about passing 15, 16 type hands v 9 or 10 with NS, neutral and negative counts.

I should also point out that playing 2 spots required double min. Your thought is good if only single min for 2 squares, however, investing 4x at negative expectation seems a bit silly.

[Freightman]

Just look at the value of adding 3 cards additional pen in a sim. Using the tool bar above's CVCX online tool and the SCORE standard inputs, the EV for Halves full indices goes from $48.57/100 rounds at 55 cards pen to $54.63/100 rounds at 52 card pen. That's an increase in EV of 12.5% from seeing just 3 additional cards. That is just seeing 3 extra cards. If he plays heads up when he does this playing one hand he gets about 48 rounds per shoe. So the extra EV is about $2.90 per shoe. I am guessing the difference in EV on his 3 hands were a matter of pennies. Nice call on the adjustments.

Now, that is a concise, to the point, quality post. Now, in a shoe with potentially lots of busts (which suggests other things), what is the calculation for 10 cards VS. 3.

[Freightman]

I just assumed you would be getting great pen to play such a game. At this pen an extra 10 cards is worth about an extra 20% in EV.

Your assumption is correct. Worst was 4.75/6. Best was 5.6/6. Average was just slightly better than 5.0/6.

[NB10]

Blackjack ATTACK, 3rd Edition by Don Schlesinger is a must to own, as well as a necessity if you intend to take the game seriously.

Thanks. Do you have the Table of Contents for this book? I don't see them listed on Amazon and would like to see them before buying as it is quite an expensive book to get in the UK.

[Freightman]

Thanks. Do you have the Table of Contents for this book? I don't see them listed on Amazon and would like to see them before buying as it is quite an expensive book to get in the UK.

If you're serious, just get it. How much is it over there?

[NB10]

Yes, etc is all inclusive.


I am sure there are but I can't think of any. Usually a mentor helps with that.


Well if you just roll into any casino and play at any table with room to sit down you are in trouble. You want to scout the casino to get a lot of things down. You want to know the patrons rhythms and the casino operation rhythms. This will allow you to find times with the best conditions and be at the right place at the right time. You want to scout the dealers to know who is fast, error prone, helpful etc. And you want to scout the games at various casinos for other vulnerabilities and better games. You want to not things the casino does to make things harder for you. I won't go into detail here but this is usually referring to equipment. You want to consider heat and tolerance levels for each casino. And of course pen is very important and dealer dependent. You may even find pen varies by what day of the week it is. I have been to casino towns where pen sucks on Saturday everywhere you go or pen sucks pretty much all weekend. But during the week you can find good pen if you hunt for it. If you are at a casino that is sweaty you have to be conservative and tricky. At tolerant casinos you can really go for it with larger spreads etc. I know some people don't preach this but I avoid crowded conditions like the plague. It just makes life so much more predictable. But if you are a backcounting crowding is good up to a point.

The other thing is to always mix things up. Don't be predictable. Enter a shoe backcounting at most once per day per casino. White rabbit more often and play through some shoes. They should never think they know what you are doing unless it isn't actually what you are doing. You can encourage easily made assumptions that are innocuous and wrong by what you do. Often they are looking for a reason to let you play. Let them figure out one that fits what you are doing that isn't counting. Also choosing a casino is important. You don't want a sweaty casino unless the game is very good. Some places are sweaty because they offer a game so good they have to protect it vigilantly. Others are just paranoid while offering poor games. You don't want a casino that is quick to network you unless you are already in the networks. Then it really doesn't matter. Tolerant casinos are the best if you can beat their game. I am not talking about barely beating it. The last thing is to be conscious of what your session looks like to them and manage your session accordingly.

I probably forgot to mention all kinds of things.

Just have to find a UK-based mentor now..

Thanks for the guidance on reading Blackjack Attack, and the rest of the tips above.

[Freightman]

If you're serious, just get it. How much is it over there?

Sometimes you just don't ask. Before I went out on my own some 20 years ago, I told a customer he was getting a rate increase. He asked - how much. I told him he would find out when he got the bill. Obviously, we got along. The point is - who cares what it costs (as long as someone isn't scalping you.

[NB10]

If you're serious, just get it. How much is it over there?

Probably around $75-80 equivalent.

[Freightman]

Probably around $75-80 equivalent.

Double our price. What's your level of expertise, and what's in your library now.

[Freightman]

Double our price. What's your level of expertise, and what's in your library now.

Actually, maybe you've simp,y been shopping at the
http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=58221