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Thread: Cover play

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by NB10 View Post
    Do you guys use things like never raising a bet after a loss/no change after a push/never lowering a bet after a win, etc?
    That's very expensive, especially st low stakes

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    I don't. After Don published that in his book that eventually became the tell tale sign you were counting because almost all counters did it. It costs a lot and games are not as good as they used to be. I do try to construct a ramp so that I am not called to make hard bet moves much. Like jumping a betting bin is equal to or less than doubling your bet. Like 1-1.5-2-3-4-6-8-10-15-20. This way more than doubling your bet is rarely called for. Of course with a level 1 count you may have to use fractional betting bin barriers because whole number TCs just don't work this way for a level 1 count. But it works for my count and some other level 2 counts should be able to do this as well. But picking the structure of your ramp so that bet moves are more natural for your count can be a useful thing.
    What count do you use?

    It seems like there are limited direct cover plays you can use without significantly affecting EV, other than a couple of index playa like 16v10.

  3. #16
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    3, it's easy enough to figure out what it is you're talking around when you talk around it enough. Long-windedness only keeps those with short attention spans from figuring out what you mean. Not all you speak of is so thinly veiled, but once enough posts are read the puzzle pieces fit together even on your more heavily cloaked ideas.

  4. #17


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    If you are a fairly inexperienced player, you are getting a lot of bad advice here that is putting the kart way ahead of the horse.

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by NB10 View Post
    Wanted to get the thoughts of more experienced players, what are the most effective cover plays for lessening heat whilst minimising the amount of EV sacrificed?
    if I have max bet out and i want to split 10s v 4,5,6 i take out my double sided tail coin out and say heads i stand tails I split!! if its a low count i use my double sided head coin!

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by mcallister3200 View Post
    If you are a fairly inexperienced player, you are getting a lot of bad advice here that is putting the kart way ahead of the horse.

    Agree 100%. There is an excellent thread currently active on blackjackinfo.com about selecting a count for newbies. It seems that every thread here by a couple of posters is aimed at putting down HiLo players. When evidence is presented everywhere that in today's game the gain by using a higher count is really not much, you are drowned by graphs that show a significant difference in extreme counts that occur an insignificant amount of time or assumptions that HiLo will get you caught and backed off. This despite the fact that a majority of successful counters use HiLo or other one level counts. Some of us are now succeeding playing HiLo, many while even playing with a players card.

    I started playing with a $15k BR, still around 200 hours a year and despite learning through many many initial mistakes (not doubling on A7 or splitting 9's against a 9 and many correct risk averse plays), after roughly 600 hours, my BR crossed $50k three days ago. This despite earning zero in year 2. $19k, Zero, $31k over the past 3 years starting August 2014.

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Agree 100%. There is an excellent thread currently active on blackjackinfo.com about selecting a count for newbies. It seems that every thread here by a couple of posters is aimed at putting down HiLo players. When evidence is presented everywhere that in today's game the gain by using a higher count is really not much, you are drowned by graphs that show a significant difference in extreme counts that occur an insignificant amount of time or assumptions that HiLo will get you caught and backed off. This despite the fact that a majority of successful counters use HiLo or other one level counts. Some of us are now succeeding playing HiLo, many while even playing with a players card.

    I started playing with a $15k BR, still around 200 hours a year and despite learning through many many initial mistakes (not doubling on A7 or splitting 9's against a 9 and many correct risk averse plays), after roughly 600 hours, my BR crossed $50k three days ago. This despite earning zero in year 2. $19k, Zero, $31k over the past 3 years starting August 2014.
    Hilo is the worst for beginners because, becuase beginners have small bankrolls and hilo has huge variance compared to a strong count system like hi opt2!

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by hypercube View Post
    Hilo is the worst for beginners because, becuase beginners have small bankrolls and hilo has huge variance compared to a strong count system like hi opt2!
    Another categorical statement without any validation. The answer continues to be "it depends". How much variance are the errors caused by an inexperienced player? There is no one size fits all guys. And it is not HI OptII ASC or nothing. Open your mind and begin to evaluate what tools you need to do what job and with what level of people.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  9. #22


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    My opinion, the best cover is your act. I'm not super pro but I have made this a job and I play many hours a day, haven't had a day off in the past 3 months.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by hypercube View Post
    Hilo is the worst for beginners because, becuase beginners have small bankrolls and hilo has huge variance compared to a strong count system like hi opt2!

    You also wrote the below quote this week:

    " I also think there is something to being able to reduce short term session variance with negligible impact on long term ev that makes things like splitting 88, 99 v 10 and A questionable at their simed index."

    Do you also side count two's ? If not splitting 99 vs a 10 up is also going to cause a little bit of extra variance. Twenty four post on the board and suddenly we have another expert.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by mcallister3200 View Post
    If you are a fairly inexperienced player, you are getting a lot of bad advice here that is putting the kart way ahead of the horse.
    I am fairly inexperienced. What do you suggest?

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Agree 100%. There is an excellent thread currently active on blackjackinfo.com about selecting a count for newbies. It seems that every thread here by a couple of posters is aimed at putting down HiLo players. When evidence is presented everywhere that in today's game the gain by using a higher count is really not much, you are drowned by graphs that show a significant difference in extreme counts that occur an insignificant amount of time or assumptions that HiLo will get you caught and backed off. This despite the fact that a majority of successful counters use HiLo or other one level counts. Some of us are now succeeding playing HiLo, many while even playing with a players card.

    I started playing with a $15k BR, still around 200 hours a year and despite learning through many many initial mistakes (not doubling on A7 or splitting 9's against a 9 and many correct risk averse plays), after roughly 600 hours, my BR crossed $50k three days ago. This despite earning zero in year 2. $19k, Zero, $31k over the past 3 years starting August 2014.
    Thank you, very interesting. How do you deal with movements in the amount you bet? Do you just bet with the true count no matter what? What size bet spread do you use?

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Agreed. If people can handle it the biggest gain for complexity is to the small BR player. I showed that a year or 2 ago. I used that when growing my own BR. Overtime I almost got to where I was out of the woods and lost some back I would look for ways to improve my approach. That meant lower variance, lower n0, higher SCORE and more EV. The answer was always to add stuff. I was trying to outrun ruin. I could only use a small spread due to table minimum issues. I either got lucky or made my own luck. I think it was a little of both. I have continued this type of approach and done some mind boggling things with it in other games. Most of these huge steps forward has limited application in BJ. The gains in BJ are anemic compared to what you can get at the games with all kinds of crazy rules. But the gains in BJ are quite significant gains. When you hear people say the gains aren't much they are thinking in dollars not percentages. I will take a 20% raise anytime. If you think 20% isn't much and not worth it then you really aren't playing for much to begin with and playing at all isn't worth it. The funny thing is you get the gain plus much better stats like SCORE, EV, CE and n0. I would do it just for the better stats.
    How much does Hi Opt II lower your variance vs Hi Lo?

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