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Thread: Session win-loss limit management

  1. #1
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    Session win-loss limit management

    Hi All,

    My purpose here? Need advice on effectiveness of my observation.

    Reason I am asking it to everyone?
    1. I cannot prove my observition will take me to increase bankroll in long run (mathematical or logical corrective and effectiveness).
    2. If it is more than conventional wisdom then will help many blind math beliver from ruin.


    Observation:

    Lately, I have started realizing, it is very important to SHUFFLE OUT (come out of the game), when win or loss limit is reached.
    Specially when planned SESSION WIN LIMIT IS REACHED, to increase the bankroll.

    My usual configuration of play in last four trips:

    In my recent trip,

    1. I played 10 sessions,
    2. Each session of approximately 100 rounds ( I usually play at witching hour, late night to grave yard shift).
    3. My loss schuffle out limit was 50% of session bankroll.
    4. My win schuffle out limit was 40% of session bankroll.
    5. First session of the trip was 20 units (with agenda make bankroll 56 or bankrupt). Result : Loss.
    6. Second session of the trip was 20 units (with agenda make bankroll 56 or bankrupt). Result : Win
    7. All afterward session were win/loss, never made my bankroll to 0. Hence total investment always remained 40 units (I had many ups and downs during last four trips where almost 50% of my bankroll lost).
    8. I never play -ive counts and wong out. However never wong out after win or push.
    9. Play two hands.
    10. Target was to make 400 units.
    11. Total Trip Bankroll 200 units.
    12. I usualy play, 6 D shoe, DD any 2, rsa not allowed, splitt allowed 4, cut 1.5 , BJ 3:2.
    13. Casino allows 1 - 20 bet ramp.
    14. In my last trip I was betting 1 - 20 bet ramp (without back off. I am an Asian and we are culturally depend on luck), with camouflage.
    15. Trip runs for a period of 1 to 1.5 months.


    Some background:


    1. I played with above model for last four trips.
    2. It helped me cut back my loss made in previous 2 years (thats when I started going Casino 1st time in life).
    3. Made approximately, 7 times my initial bankroll (needless to say, my investment to each trip remained 20 to 200 units) before starting of the trip.
    4. Before my last 4 trips, I used to go to Casino with all my skills to donate my contribution and lose everything (with card counting, bet ramping as per count).
    5. If I am winning, I used to play till I feel comfortable or burn out with a bankroll loss.
    6. Before my last 4 trips, I won a lot but lost more than i have won (additional lonely life, missing imp occassions, countless hour of drive ect. etc.).


    Which made me curious whats going on?
    May be it needs some conventional gambling descipline in a posetive expectation of the game and not depend on all math (as they forget to address some real life emotional and financial constraints).

    Now, I am curious, if i should just consider myself lucky in last 4 trips. OR

    It is important to have have stop loss (50% session bankroll) and stop win (140% session bankroll) really should make difference in future?

    Please feel free to use any slang you want to add with your advise as I have already said them to me .

    Thanks in advance!
    Last edited by priybrat1980; 02-24-2019 at 12:50 PM. Reason: additional info

  2. #2


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    My free advice , read Norm's free book here.

  3. #3


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    If you play correctly, pick the right games and play with a positive EV (no matter how small), the more you play the more you win. Simples. Placing artificial stop wins, stop losses and so on will only ever have a negative impact.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by ummagumma View Post
    If you play correctly, pick the right games and play with a positive EV (no matter how small), the more you play the more you win. Simples. Placing artificial stop wins, stop losses and so on will only ever have a negative impact.
    Even if you are being cheated?

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    Even if you are being cheated?
    Probably not but I'm not certain casino cheating was part of the original question.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by ummagumma View Post
    Probably not but I'm not certain casino cheating was part of the original question.
    But your statement was quite unambiguous. You said "Placing artificial stop wins, stop losses and so on will only ever have a negative impact.". When the reality is, that if you are cheated, then having a stop loss will have a positive impact. In fact, it will save your bankroll, and for practically no cost.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    My free advice , read Norm's free book here.
    May I know, which specific section, you are referring me to focus?

    Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

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    To the OP, there's a reason this thread is yellow. This way of thinking is voodoo and has no basis in math. N0 is the number of rounds you need to play to hit your EV in the long term. Individual session results are meaningless.

    There are reasons to impose win and loss limits, such as cover for a local joint. But if you want to actually make money in the long run, you need to think differently.

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by RCJH View Post
    <snip>N0 is the number of rounds you need to play to hit your EV in the long term. <snip>
    RCJH,

    Just a slight correction to your otherwise exemplary answer: N0 is the number of rounds needed to make your SD equal to your EV. Thus, after N0 rounds, you still have a nearly 16% chance of being one or more SD's below EV, or "in the hole".

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by RCJH View Post
    To the OP, there's a reason this thread is yellow. This way of thinking is voodoo and has no basis in math. N0 is the number of rounds you need to play to hit your EV in the long term. Individual session results are meaningless.

    There are reasons to impose win and loss limits, such as cover for a local joint. But if you want to actually make money in the long run, you need to think differently.
    Thanks! This make sense.

    Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    RCJH,

    Just a slight correction to your otherwise exemplary answer: N0 is the number of rounds needed to make your SD equal to your EV. Thus, after N0 rounds, you still have a nearly 16% chance of being one or more SD's below EV, or "in the hole".

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Ah, that does make sense.

    So 16% chance of being one or more SD down and also 16% chance of being one or more up, correct? (Honest question, I'm not somewhere where I can look it up). So does that mean you have a only a 68% chance of being within one SD either way?

    Also, when you say "in the hole" you don't necessarily mean you lost money, right? Just that you are below your EV?

  12. #12
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    You cannot change the basic math of the game with session stop wins and losses. In the end the casino will win the House Edge x Action. It's irrefuteable. All you CAN do is change the distribution of results to either many small wins and a few big losses or many small losses and a few big wins.

  13. #13


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    How can You do that?

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