Advice needed on playing rated and longevity in local casinos

[BoSox]

Bosox. Pick a side and stay on it. Jumping back and forth makes a person look like a brown nosing sissy pants.

I rather think that I am neutral, and take sides on certain points with who I agree with on the issue.

[BoSox]

T3. I was referring to the frequency of negative indices. You are saved by the shuffle.

Now you piss me off, are you sure that is what you were trying to say? When you actually said the following:

Again, the gain is minimal in pitch games because the frequency is minimal.

[ZeeBabar]

this is 100% wrong. The frequency of extreme counts goes up in pitch. For Zee's center cut DD compared to 1.5 cut off 6 deck the extreme counts will be more frequent for DD. TC frequency is one of several aspects that decide what is in the I18. You have hand frequency, rate of gain after the index is exceeded, and TC frequency for use of the index. Looking at the TC frequency for TC +4 or more (max bet territory for most people using Hilo) from CVCX:

TC: 2 deck/1 cut off; 6 deck 1.5 cut off
+4: 3.83%; 2.44%
+5: 1.29%; 1.11%
+6: 0.93%; 0.81%
+7: 0.52%; 0.34%
+8: 0.42%; 0.26%
etc.

When you have your max bet out you want to have the highest EV and win the most hands. That means using indices that didn't make the I18 because the index wasn't exceeded frequently enough. Who cares how frequently the index is exceeded. You have max bet out now and the index is exceeded. You should make the best play you can. Especially when the difference is quite large. EV is what you are trying to accumulate. Getting more EV out of many more hands increases EV where overall EV for your play can be small.
Apparently I am not that one that misses the frequency in pitch games for extreme counts goes up compared to shoe games. Perhaps using Norm's products for more than just Reno SD would allow you to make correct comments about the games most people play more often. If you are a subscriber and go to CVCX on-line tool in the tool bar above you may notice Norm has an option for double 9,10 and 11 only with all indices for Hilo but doesn't have it for I18 and Hilo for double 9, 10, and 11 only. There is a reason for that. Think about it.

T3, I don't play center cut DD. I play DD with between 55% to 70% cut, primarily heads up if it's 55-60%, always 3 or less folks. Other than h17, rules are standard including DAS and splitting Aces to 4. I have one place where I play an 80% DD with tougher rules.

[BoSox]

The discussion was about two decks, not one, or six.

[BoSox]

T3 read my post #4 again and tell me where you have a problem.

" Minimize your indices "

For starters.

ZeeBabar, was not looking to change counts, that you were trying force on him, and he was not looking for advice for when to take insurance.


".And what did you contribute regarding two decks again?"

I did give one opinion:

"Playing double deck games you are going to face plenty of both decent positive, and bad negative counts in lots of different shoes before the re- shuffle happens."

[hypercube]

"One of the major simplifications a player can employ with little effect to his winrate is to quit attempting to side count Aces. An Ace side count will rarely increase a card counters winrate by more than 1/20th of 1%. Even in a "deeply" dealt single deck game, a side of Aces is not worth more than 1/5th of 1% to a counters winrate." Arnold Snyder

I don't want to get in the middle of this fued and im a new member so please dont take anything personal but i doubt arnold synyder is right about that statement. I admit i dont have a sim to prove him wrong but knowing when to double 11 has gained me ev and spreading to multiple hands to catch surplus aces has also treated me very well, 1% just seems way wrong.

[hypercube]

i just dont understand your logic, you sound too paranoid. a huge bet spread with hilo will get you backed off more likely than playing decisions, the dealer job is to deal and pay hands correctly not question what looks like a very bad play to them anyway

[Freightman]

i just dont understand your logic, you sound too paranoid. a huge bet spread with hilo will get you backed off more likely than playing decisions, the dealer job is to deal and pay hands correctly not question what looks like a very bad play to them anyway

I've been backed off on negative index plays, as in several of these plays in succession.

[Freightman]

I am sure you realize that it was most likely an accumulation of things and not just making 3 index plays in a negative count. Of course if you are dealing with a bunch of dumb suits anything can happen. Plus the tolerance issue comes into play. How much profit are they willing to throw away to protect their game from that rare counter that knows what he is doing?

Not that it matters, but it was probably 19-15 hands. You're right, of course - it was simply the last straw

[BJGenius007]

Of course he is wrong. All you need to do is use Norm's software to show he is wrong. Until ace compromise counts there was a huge gap between ace reckoned and ace neutral counts where performance is concerned. Don proved that it is worth 10-15% over full ace reckoned counts. Snyder got a few things wrong.

I've been backed off on negative index plays, as in several of these plays in succession.

You were backed off because of big spread. They saw you back to minimal bet when count turns negative. At that point, they pulled the trigger to back you off. Your perception that you got back off because of negative index play is wrong. Ploppies do it all the time. The threat to the casinos are correct 20 to 1 spread on shoe game and correct 7 to 1 spread on double deck. Ploppies may bet 20x table minimal but the spread won't fluctuate with true count.

[Freightman]

So screw all that reading. All we really need to do is follow T3s advice. Correct? Increase my spread, ask for and only play $100 tables. Bet aggressively because EV means everything. Please all indices. Do worry about preferential shuffling. It just means I'm paranoid and they are ass holes.

Based on past history, I figure I have 1 to 3 months until there is nowhere left to play.

So, I guess I should probably list my house for sale now? Move to a city with an airport because Im going to being doing alot of flying over the next 20 years until I reach the long run. Let's see Kansas City in centrally located. Las Vegas would be a novel idea. Everyone lives from out of state fly into the city to gamble. I live in the city and fly out to other states to play blackjack. Hmmm. Smart people think I'm stupid. Okay, I'm starting to get the concept down.

Actually 2 comments.
Las Vegas is actually not a bad place to live not gamble, primarily due to the incredible plethora of direct flights to/from Vegas.

Lots of people criticize Moses. I think it's quite safe to say that his area of expertise limits him, primarily, to a very segmented piece of the market. Having said that, I also think he could expand his horizons, as well as his pocketbook, by utilizing his methods in more double deck games. I would think, likely by his own admission, that he would fail at 6 deck.

[Freightman]

Las Vegas would be good. My cousin could get me a part time job singing at his raunchy burlesque shows on Friday and Sat nights. He is the choir director at the church for gays only on Sunday mornings.

Freighter. What did the janitor holler when he came out of the closet?

SUPPLIES!!!!

My kid brother lived in the States, both in Seattle and San Francisco. He was gay, and actually went to a gay synagogue in San Francisco. It was considered poor protocol to try to hustle the rebbetzin.

[Freightman]

So I live in Vegas. Drive to the smart Indian Casinos in Cal and they dont hassle me because they are smart. So I make bucu money. While the people in Cal drive to the stupid casinos in Nevada that take their money. Okay. Got it.

I think I can knock down the states that don't offer blackjack to 36. (Idaho, Montana, Utah, Vermont, New Hampshire). Frank says Florida sucks.

So I book a flight to a different state 3 weeks out of the month. In a year, I will have covered all the states. Figure $1,000 per trip expense. But if I win $3,000 on average per trip, then I only need to win $28k accumulated on my off week at home to reach $100k. That burlesque job will come in handy in the beginning at $200 a night.

Moses
One important stat to keep in mind when incurring travel expense (which you don't have to worry about now) is your win to expense ratio. The higher your exoense, the higher your ratio should be. When flying, which Aldo includes hotel and car rental - think in terms of 10-1, and plan your campaign accordingly.