New to counting - Couple questions

[Jgizzle94]

First off I'd like to introduce myself, I'm 22, going to school part time for IT & working a $10/hr job in Wisconsin. Bills are only car payment & insurance so I've been saving some money up. Quick run down, went to the casino 35 minutes from me for the first time 3 weeks ago, played blackjack for a couple hours and left being up $75. Got back and spent all week learning to count & memorize BS. Went back a week later to see if I could keep the count in a real shoe game. By the way I play 6-deck, $10 min. About 75%-80% pen. Some dealers here actually show you the burn cards. 3-2 H-s17. 2 hours in I was having a little bit of trouble keeping the count while playing but left with 85$ profit. Spent all week practicing, getting faster, and this week I could keep the count through the whole game no problem and only played 3 full shoes & left with $235 profit.

My biggest question is deciding on a bet spread for me. I've only been bringing 2-3 hundred with, but have a larger bankroll just not comfortable with much larger sums as I am still very new and have the "maybe I've just gotten lucky" thought stuck in the back of my head. Last session was my first session playing seriously, while betting 2x - 6x minimum bet based off TC 1-6.

Also, I want to set limits to stay under the radar, when should I be happy with my return and leave each night, should I try for more quantitative returns over quality returns more spread out? Especially because the casino is so close & I drive a hybrid?

For my counting right now I'm just using Hi-Lo, my casino uses the shuffle masters, there are hand shuffle pitch games but with a 25$ min. So I figured when my bank roll increases I'll get into shuffle tracking for that. While browsing these forums I saw something about ASC, would something like that be my "next step" in improving my game?

Any tips at all for being new to the AP scene would be great!

-JG

[Stealth]

So, by estimating you may have played about 500-600 rounds that have an EV of something around .10 per round ($10 hour). Your range of possible results (95% probability) for the rounds was between winning 1,300 or losing 1,400 on EV of about $60. Yes, you were lucky and your results have no meaning relative to your skill level.

You must master basic strategy WITHOUT ERROR before you proceed. You need to be able to count, play two hands, with two other players at table, keep an accurate running count and convert to a True count. Have a friend deal to you at home to complete this checkout.

To play at about a 10% risk of ruin (very high, pros usually play at less than 1% but you have a somewhat replenish able bankroll from a job) you will need a bankroll of about 10K.

Now buy Casino Verite from Qfit and learn to play without error. Then you need to buy CVCX from Qfit.com and use it to better understand the risk of loss and in designing your bet ramps to fit your game and bank. Giving you answers for a bet ramp without asking a lot of questions would be foolish. (understand I have no financial interest in either product but you asked how to raise your game and this is best).

There is also a FREE book about AP blackjack on the website that you should read.

If you do these with commitment, then in 60-90 days you will be ready to play. Then you should understand that game selection, rules, penetration, do I play rated, how do I disguise that I am counting, and the myriad of other things that are casino related are necessary to be successful in using your newly developed technical skill.

Best of luck

[Jgizzle94]

Really appreciate the response, I was looking at some of his products but wasn't sure what exactly they were. Been trying to get my hands on some literature, as I know I really haven't played much to base my wins off of strictly counting cards, as I know this isn't some get rich quick scheme, it's just something I feel that I picked up naturally as I've always been mathematically inclined.

[Bushie]

You could consider backcounting/wonging for a bit to get some "real environment" practice in with greatly reduced risk? Using a 1-6 spread that caps out at TC +5, jumping in at TC +2 and jumping out at TC -1, your EV stays about the same with (correct me if I'm wrong) about 40% less risk.

Your guise whilst doing so could be the hesitant newbie. Especially if you're a new face around the casino. And with a larger bank it allows more leeway for the inevitable mistakes that will be made when starting out.

[ZeeBabar]

One of the big self defeating issues you will face is putting out the appropriate bet for positive counts. So far, it's been luck on your side. I underbet for a long time because I was uncomfortable placing a $30 bet in a minimum $10 bet game at first. The pros here try to get as big a spread as possible in a 6 deck game and going to $90 on two hands at a highly positive shoe is not uncommon. Those kind of bets are where the money really is.

With th software available for purchase on this site, you can get the optimal betting scale for your game.

[Meistro123]

Also, I want to set limits to stay under the radar, when should I be happy with my return and leave each night,

That's not how it works. You can't lock up a win unless you never play again. It's all one session. You might want to limit how long you are playing in order to avoid heat but if you are going to do that then just set a time limit and quit whether you are up or down at that point.

Anyway you are not really ready for casino play yet. You need to spend time practicing at home.

[stopgambling]

well the Op got a part of the game right but is wrong in the second part of his sentence . One word of advice . watch how ploppy play and how the staff work . read the free book plus a few more recommend books . Develop a well thought out plan then go play , that is after practicing at least 200 -300 hours which should make you ready if it's a level 1 count. You must understand the concept of risk of ruin and CE and N-zero and apply them to your plan. The counting part is easy , it is everything else that is going to determine your success.

[flamethrower]

What is CE? NO?

[flamethrower]

What is CE? NO?

I'd like to add deck estimation, and optimal betting to advice for OP. Just Google optimal betting for X deck shoe and you should find Wizards of Odds articles with bet spread according to rules and penetration. Those are the fundamentals imo:

-Optimal betting unit @ given TC
-deck estimation
-accuracy of BS, count

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk

[Member Name Hidden]

I tend to avoid pitch games because of the heat variable. My average spread for shoes is 45-1 and limited table time exposure. That seems to work massively.

[Meistro123]

CE is 'certainty equivalent' or how much you would need to be paid to forgo a gambling opportunity. Because of the swings entailed with card counting if your hourly expectation is $200 it is really 'worth' only $100 an hour guaranteed money (or w/e the CE for your gambling opportunity turns out to be). So if your hourly rate is $200 and your CE is $100 then you are ambivalent between playing blackjack and making $200 or someone paying you $100 per hour not to play. But you would prefer to get paid $105 an hour not to play and would not accept $95 an hour not to play.

N0 is how many hands it takes until being even is a 1 std deviation event or roughly how long is the so called "long run".

[jimmybond007]

CE is 'certainty equivalent' or how much you would need to be paid to forgo a gambling opportunity. Because of the swings entailed with card counting if your hourly expectation is $200 it is really 'worth' only $100 an hour guaranteed money (or w/e the CE for your gambling opportunity turns out to be). So if your hourly rate is $200 and your CE is $100 then you are ambivalent between playing blackjack and making $200 or someone paying you $100 per hour not to play. But you would prefer to get paid $105 an hour not to play and would not accept $95 an hour not to play.

N0 is how many hands it takes until being even is a 1 std deviation event or roughly how long is the so called "long run".

IMO the n0 for 2SD is a better estimation of the "long run." Just take 4x(n0.) Much more confidence than just 1SD, you have a VERY good shot of being up at this point provided your skill level is good.

[Midwest Player]

Been trying to get my hands on some literature, as I know I really haven't played much to base my wins off of strictly counting cards, as I know this isn't some get rich quick scheme, it's just something I feel that I picked up naturally as I've always been mathematically inclined.

A good beginners book is Bootlegger's 200 Proof Blackjack. You can get it at Amazon for under $20. He introduces the hi-low count and has optimal betting ramps. Bootlegger was a very good writer. He never wrote over someones understanding. A person with only an 8th grade reading ability can easily understand and comprehend what he is saying. He starts off the book about how he stumbled across a blackjack game in the upper Midwest at the Kewadin casinos. That isn't too far from Wisconsin. By the way do you live in the northern half or southern half of WI