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Thread: Dealer bust probability.

  1. #1


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    Dealer bust probability.

    Has there been a sim done and published on the probability of a dealer bust based on their upcard and the true count? What about with Zen count?

    I know that an overall probability based on upcard is out there, but anything based on true count?

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    I am looking for the Dealer Bust %, "off the top"
    for the 10 (not 11) possible Dealer Upcards in
    both the S17 and H17 versions of Spanish21.


  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    Has there been a sim done and published on the probability of a dealer bust based on their upcard and the true count? What about with Zen count?

    I know that an overall probability based on upcard is out there, but anything based on true count?

    I have no idea, but it is a great question. Hopefully, the question does not get misconstrued with a similar discussion the board recently had. Concerning when to raise your bet based on the percentage of the hands won by the dealer. Suffice it to say that one of our distinguished members has an extremely conservative view on the matter.
    Last edited by BoSox; 07-21-2017 at 12:55 PM.

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    ^ Yeah, that's definitely not the purpose of this thread. Mainly what I'd like to know is if there is ever a true count at which the dealer has a higher than 50% probability of busting, and when that count is depending on the up card.

  5. #5
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Perfect. Thank you, Norm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    Has there been a sim done and published on the probability of a dealer bust based on their upcard and the true count? What about with Zen count?

    I know that an overall probability based on upcard is out there, but anything based on true count?
    hitthat16,

    See this link:

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...590#post198590

    Dog Hand

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    "2 31.5. 3 33.5 4 35.6. 5 37.9. 6 38.3. 7 26.6 8 25.6. 9 23. 10 23.1. A 14."
    2 ... 31.5%
    3 ... 33.5%
    4 ... 35.6%
    5 ... 37.9%
    6 ... 38.3%
    7 ... 26.6%
    8 ... 25.6%
    9 ... 23. x%
    X ... 23.1%
    A ... 14.x%


    Please check these figures you posted.
    The % for 2, 8, and 9 look suspicious.

  9. #9


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    Hello

    As we know, off the top of a shoe (TC = 0), the dealer bust probability is about 28 percent for S 17 rule and about 29 percent for H 17 rule, see e.g.

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...ide-bets/bust/

    Now in order to count this "Dealer Bust" side bet, it would be helpful to know how the dealer bust probability changes with the True Count. However, I could not find this information in this thread. The chart in Norm's book:

    https://www.qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage438.htm

    would answer this question, but to my surprise, the dealer bust rate according to this chart is only between 20 and 25 percent (23 percent at TC = 0), rather than 28 percent. How can this be? Does this chart suppose that the dealer has no blackjack and plays out his hand? But in this case, the bust rate would be higher, not lower than 28 percent, wouldn't it?

    And Dog Hand's charts:

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...590#post198590

    show the dealer bust rate versus different upcards, not the overall dealer bust rate, as it seems.
    Last edited by PinkChip; 11-02-2019 at 05:48 PM.

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