Likely stupid question

**Karkas** · 07-12-2017, 09:32 AM

I'm a new counter (still only training myself) and spending a lot of time thinking about the theory of blackjack. I apologize if this is a dumb question, but I don't recall it ever getting discussed in a book or elsewhere.

If you start a shoe and it starts going negative and keeps going down while you played, does that mean you had the advantage over those hands, because the negative count meant more As & 10s were in play compared to low cards?

I understand that if you were to freeze play at any given moment for a negative count, the house has the future advantage for the next hand, because of the ratio of low-to-high cards, but when looking back in time, did that mean you had the advantage in terms of what cards actually came out?

I know this post is a little rambling, but hopefully it makes some sense.

Thanks in advance

**Bigdaddy** · 07-12-2017, 10:07 AM

Yes - you unknowingly had an advantage prior to those rounds that came out heavy with aces and faces.

But that's kind of like saying you should have bought Bitcoin a few years ago. Would you buy it now?

**Stealth** · 07-12-2017, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by Karkas

I'm a new counter (still only training myself) and spending a lot of time thinking about the theory of blackjack. I apologize if this is a dumb question, but I don't recall it ever getting discussed in a book or elsewhere.

If you start a shoe and it starts going negative and keeps going down while you played, does that mean you had the advantage over those hands, because the negative count meant more As & 10s were in play compared to low cards?

I understand that if you were to freeze play at any given moment for a negative count, the house has the future advantage for the next hand, because of the ratio of low-to-high cards, but when looking back in time, did that mean you had the advantage in terms of what cards actually came out?

I know this post is a little rambling, but hopefully it makes some sense.

Thanks in advance

The answer is yes, in those circumstances you likely had an advantage "off the top" and didn't know it. Hind sight and all that.....and you are less likely to get a big positive true count in the remainder of the shoe.

It may be of interest that a shuffle tracker may attempt to create this circumstance by cutting the "good cards" to the front so they can have a known advantage and flat bet big off the top until the playing slug is past. (drastic over simplification to make the point)

**BoSox** · 07-12-2017, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

But that's kind of like saying you should have bought Bitcoin a few years ago. Would you buy it now?

Bigdaddy, actually the question that Karkas asked was a very good one for someone just starting out, indicated by his first sentence.

"I'm a new counter (still only training myself) and spending a lot of time thinking about the theory of blackjack."

Karkas, you are on the right track.

**Karkas** · 07-12-2017, 11:10 AM

Thank you everyone! You've confirmed my hunch. While it was going negative, I could have been winning, but as pointed out... knowledge of the past doesn't mean you can take advantage of it in the future.

After thrashing around for a while, I've settled on mastering Hi-Lo, because it seems like it's got the best (or most) literature support and I started practicing it before I really learned about others systems and level two strategies like Norm advocates in his book (FELT/REKO). I'm still trying to improve my speed and accuracy. I can reliably count down a deck in 30-40 sec, and occasionally dip under 30 sec, but my conscious brain routinely gets in the way and slows things down or causes me to lose the RC.

I plan to hit a local Indian casino in the coming weeks for some quick Wonging sessions to test myself under real casino conditions.

**BoSox** · 07-12-2017, 11:30 AM

Originally Posted by Karkas

I'm still trying to improve my speed and accuracy. I can reliably count down a deck in 30-40 sec, and occasionally dip under 30 sec, but my conscious brain routinely gets in the way and slows things down or causes me to lose the RC.

Karkas, learn to count down the deck in pairs, there will be plenty of canceling out of large and small cards.

**Karkas** · 07-12-2017, 11:44 AM

Thanks BoSox! I count down in pairs and single cards with an iPhone app. I also have been running the Full table RC drills in CVBJ. In the CVBJ drill I count a 6 deck shoe (16-17 rounds) in about 4-4.5 minutes. I'm still making an unacceptable amount of errors (about one error every 6D shoe or two) and the speed needs to get better too so it is more automatic.

Overall, I've got basic strategy and top indexes down, I think my biggest need is for everything to become automatic. No shortcuts there... practice, practice, and more practice.

**Bigdaddy** · 07-12-2017, 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by BoSox

Bigdaddy, actually the question that Karkas asked was a very good one for someone just starting out, indicated by his first sentence.

"I'm a new counter (still only training myself) and spending a lot of time thinking about the theory of blackjack."

Karkas, you are on the right track.

No disrespect intended. I agree that it was a thoughtful question. I was simply trying to drive home the point that the previous rounds played have no relevance to betting on the next round. You just have to go by the current count.

**BoSox** · 07-12-2017, 12:40 PM

Originally Posted by Karkas

Overall, I've got basic strategy and top indexes down, I think my biggest need is for everything to become automatic. No shortcuts there... practice, practice, and more practice.

Karkas, another must step in your advancement that is crucial is discipline which applies to many aspects of blackjack, and you cannot underestimate it. I like the no short cuts, and the practice approach that you are demanding of yourself, for starters. What happens when you are completely ready to play, and you head to your nearest local casino and all you see is large crowds, lousy penn, and horrible rules, you know the right answer but do you have the discipline to head back to your car and leave before playing one hand? I only gave you one example of many possibilities that you will be facing so you better be ready.

**bjarg** · 07-12-2017, 05:37 PM

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

I was simply trying to drive home the point that the previous rounds played have no relevance to betting on the next round. You just have to go by the current count.

No.
He is just starting out and he intuitively already realized that previous rounds played do matter and that you not always have to go by the count.
This guy is going to learn fast and go very far.
Great job.

**Masterhoudini** · 07-12-2017, 10:49 PM

Originally Posted by bjarg

No.
He is just starting out and he intuitively already realized that previous rounds played do matter and that you not always have to go by the count.
This guy is going to learn fast and go very far.
Great job.

As a follow up- I am curious to know what is considered "doable" for shuffles. I notice many of the hand shuffles come with multiple strips these days.

I was lucky enough to come across a 2 pass stepladder, riffle and restack on a 6 decker at an Indian casino where they were counter measuring me with half shoe, but only put two plugs/or even some lazy dealers tossed the undealt half on top. Practiced quite a bit and took full advantage winning- 32k in one half a shoe. Seems like these types of situations are few and far between though.

**Meistro123** · 07-12-2017, 11:25 PM

The point is that advantage is an ex ante concept. Let's say you got a blackjack on your last round. Did you have a 150% advantage for that round? There is really no merit in considering the situation in this manner. Sure it turns out that you just played through a few decks where there was a disproportional number of high cards but that is just random chance. You use the information that is available to you to make good decisions with regards to betting and playing. What else can you do?

**Jack Jackson** · 07-13-2017, 12:15 AM

Originally Posted by Karkas

I'm a new counter (still only training myself) and spending a lot of time thinking about the theory of blackjack. I apologize if this is a dumb question, but I don't recall it ever getting discussed in a book or elsewhere.

If you start a shoe and it starts going negative and keeps going down while you played, does that mean you had the advantage over those hands, because the negative count meant more As & 10s were in play compared to low cards?

I understand that if you were to freeze play at any given moment for a negative count, the house has the future advantage for the next hand, because of the ratio of low-to-high cards, but when looking back in time, did that mean you had the advantage in terms of what cards actually came out?

I know this post is a little rambling, but hopefully it makes some sense.

Thanks in advance

Ive heard some say, to start the shoe with an Avg. bet..Because in this case you had the Advantage and then could of simply wonged out of the shoe..Had the shoe went positive(win or lose) then naturally you would adjust your bets accordingly..Its also a nice cover technique..