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Thread: Advantage Play and the Math

  1. #1
    Senior Member BetWise21's Avatar
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    Advantage Play and the Math


    You have scouted out a game with rules and stakes that you believe to be playable. You go and run the sims with your strategy and determine an optimal bet spread. You return to the casino and start attacking the game and the true count goes up and soon you have you max bet out, but even with the high true count you can't win a hand. Do you tuck tail and run, lower you max bet against the simulated strategy or trust the math and keep to your guns? It sure is a temptation to even raise your max bet and go on tilt because you are certain by the true count that the advantage has swung your way.

    Also if the opposite starts happening and you can't lose in negative or even counts, do you raise your waiting bets or just stay the course?

    Is doing either or both of these just gambling and by doing so you have just left advantage play?

    I am sure you have experienced all of this, what would you do?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post

    You have scouted out a game with rules and stakes that you believe to be playable. You go and run the sims with your strategy and determine an optimal bet spread. You return to the casino and start attacking the game and the true count goes up and soon you have you max bet out, but even with the high true count you can't win a hand. Do you tuck tail and run, lower you max bet against the simulated strategy or trust the math and keep to your guns? It sure is a temptation to even raise your max bet and go on tilt because you are certain by the true count that the advantage has swung your way.

    Also if the opposite starts happening and you can't lose in negative or even counts, do you raise your waiting bets or just stay the course?

    Is doing either or both of these just gambling and by doing so you have just left advantage play?

    I am sure you have experienced all of this, what would you do?
    Play the way the sim played. The rest is all nonsense.

    Don
    Last edited by DSchles; 07-10-2017 at 12:28 PM.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post
    You have scouted out a game with rules and stakes that you believe to be playable. You go and run the sims with your strategy and determine an optimal bet spread. You return to the casino and start attacking the game and the true count goes up and soon you have you max bet out, but even with the high true count you can't win a hand. Do you tuck tail and run, lower you max bet against the simulated strategy or trust the math and keep to your guns?

    No reason you tuck tail and run all you just experienced is a meaningless bad shoe. Depending on your remaining funds that are ready to use at the table, you will have to lower your bets if you cannot play through another shoe at the current bets you were making. If you are now short funds and you refuse to lower your bet, then you are better off going home, rather than just gambling which you will be doing.


    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post
    It sure is a temptation to even raise your max bet and go on tilt because you are certain by the true count that the advantage has swung your way.

    That is a dumb stupid statement. Nothing is certain in blackjack.


    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post
    Also if the opposite starts happening and you can't lose in negative or even counts, do you raise your waiting bets or just stay the course?

    No you do not, you do not want to be known as a trend better do you ? You never know when they start or when they end.


    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post
    Is doing either or both of these just gambling and by doing so you have just left advantage play?
    Yes


    Quote Originally Posted by 21MGR View Post
    I am sure you have experienced all of this, what would you do?

    Just play by the information that you know presently.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
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    Trust the math. Don't get emotional over chips, it's just variance.

    I do agree with T3 about having an audience. I've bet different than my sim when being hawked, but still at an advantage. Like two weeks ago the card count catcher in one place decided to stare me down. The count was up and I had my max out. A round full of 10's and aces came out. The count still warranted a max bet. I raised for cover. I knew I still had a low RoR with the higher than planned max and it was the perfect opportunity to throw them off. It did.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    Trust the math. Don't get emotional over chips, it's just varianceThe count still warranted a max bet. I raised for cover. I knew I still had a low RoR with the higher than planned max and it was the perfect opportunity to throw them off. It did.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
    Like that. This is where a 2 pronged ramp is really good. Chip up and up well into the second tier.

  6. #6


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    Generally, I'd say keep your cool and play it by the book (sim). However, in a situation where I am continually winning at lower counts, I'd probably throw in a few small bet increases for cover purposes - try look a little like a progression bettor and possibly set myself up for that first big bet raise at TC +2.

    And where the count keeps going up and you're red in the face having lost a bunch of max bets, I see no problem in going to a "super-max bet" as long as your wallet and emotions can handle it. Its' more EV and makes you look more like a chaser. Just get ready to insure your 16 v. dealer Ace - the worst feeling in BJ.

  7. #7


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    My comments may well vary from common accepted philosophy. If this is your first shoe, you're pretty much screwed by the numbers, and regardless of ramp ramp used, you're either going to make some or all back, or totally blow your brains out. It makes me cringe about a shoe I had a few years back, losing around 7k in one shoe - but shit happens.

    On the other hand, if you've got some playing time on these particular cards, and you've got a monster count, do you really have an advantage. Sims say you do, and long term, you certainly do, but this is a particular shoe with its own particular attributes. If the count continues to climb, smoke is getting blown up your ass, and you'll likely continue to blow your brains out.

    In the situation just described, I like the concept of the waiting big bet. I use it as part of a dual ramp. I may win substandard amounts on particular hands, but when it is appropriate, I'll parlay into the super max or close to super max bet, and keep chipping up as much as possible. The count is coming down now, which is what I want, with increasing bets as the count declines.

    Pretty damn tough to follow, looks like I'm simply riding the wave.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Makes perfect sense to me Freighter. I use 3 simultaneous bet ramps in sweaty places. The one the sim recommends, a more aggressive one and a less aggressive one. This allows me to look like I am going with the flow, which often means opposition betting, while actually betting according to a plan. I can choose what I make it look like but the whole point is to confuse them so choices are made to confuse them at the least cost. What you described is a perfect example. Limit the loss to the losing run causing proper bet moves in opposition to the count after ending up with more money after the losing run ends. I won't get any more specific than that.
    Seems to me that I now understand your ramping pretty good. Hides the spread too.
    For those on shoestring bankrolls, a word of caution - stick to the simulated sims - the methods described, though effective, are dangerous for limited bankrolls.
    Last edited by Freightman; 07-10-2017 at 12:43 PM. Reason: Just for Don, corrected my "to" nothing else though - semi retired you know

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